Mediation of the 2008 post-election conflict in Keny​a: Was it a case of mediator personality?

Introduction

In 2008 Koffi Annan and a panel of other eminent personalities under the auspices of the African Union mediated the Kenyan conflict between two major political parties stemming from a bungled presidential election by the Electoral body. Before the arrival of the panel, other personalities and organizations had made unsuccessful attempts but which were nonetheless crucial in laying the groundwork for the work of the panel. At the end of the grueling, tension pact and riveting Forty-One-day of mediation efforts, white smoke billowed, and the country could breathe again. The success of the mediation has been widely credited to the personality/status of Koffi Annan.

The available literature on the successes and failures of international mediation efforts identifies key fundamental contextual and process variables which impact or influence outcomes of mediation efforts in light of which questions abound whether or not the success of the process could be solely attributable to the personality of Koffi Annan who was the Chief Mediator.

 This paper aims to interrogate the process and critically analyze the factors that impact on the successes and failures of international mediation and how they apply to the instant case.  Chapter 2, of the paper, is a narration of the background of the conflict that includes its historical background, its immediate and underlying causes. Chapter 3, addresses the conflict intervention, management or resolution method that was used. The chapter briefly explains the meaning of mediation and the initial attempts that that took place before the Koffi led panel arrived. Chapter 4, on the other hand, addresses the question of the personality of the mediator with regards to the successes or otherwise of mediation efforts. The chapter incisively discusses the fundamental characteristics of impartiality, leverage and status and how they impact on mediation efforts. Chapter 5, then looks at the other key factors other than personality and more specifically their contribution to the success of the instant case. The paper concludes that even though personality was key to the Kenyan case, it was not the only factor.

Conflict background

The Republic of Kenya is a Sovereign State found in the East Coast of the continent of Africa. It is a Multi-Party democracy with a National assembly and the president as the head of the Government.  The Kenyan population of approximately 48 million people as at January 2017 comprises of almost 42 different ethnic communities with as many languages. English and Kiswahili are, however, the official languages. The British colonized the country between 1888 to 1962 and eventually gaining independence on 12th December 1963. During the British rule, the wealthy Britons and other European farmers settled in interior central highlands (central Kenya). The Highlands were the homes of the Gema community comprising of the dominant Kikuyu ethnic group, the Meru and Embu. The settlers displaced the local community from their land to small pockets of unproductive land christened the reserves. It is that occupation which led to the first revolution by local to reclaim their land. 

Upon gaining independence Kenya elected Jomo Kenyatta as its first President in 1963, and he ruled the country until his demise in August 1978.  The Kenyatta’s reign contrary to the legitimate expectation of the Kenyan people was marred with massive corruption, nepotism, illegal detentions, arrests, and assassinations of opponents. Most notably, the ruling elites illegally acquired and allocated themselves vast chunks of land in the Central, Rift Valley, and Coast Provinces aroused great anger among landless Kenyans.

The reign of the 2nd President Daniel Arap Moi between 1978 and 2002 was not any better. In June 1982, to consolidate his powers, the Moi Government sponsored a bill which saw the enactment of the law which made Kenya a one-party state until 1992 when the law was repealed, and Kenya returned to the multi-party democracy. The reign of Moi oversaw the collapse of democratic space, the economy, education, et al.  Just like the previous administration; there were cases of massive corruption by the elites in the Government, detention without trials, suppressions, nepotism and exclusivity in sharing of national resources, unjust electoral laws among others.  The dawn of multi-party democracy saw the disintegration of the country into ethnic groupings, the political parties that emerged were organized along regional and ethnic lines with the major parties being controlled by The Central and The Western Regions. The multi-party democracy saw the emergence and rise of electoral violence in 1992, 1997, 2002, and climaxing in 2007.

Central to this paper is the conflict arising from the general elections of 2007. The general elections in Kenya is an all-inclusive one which comprises Presidential, Parliamentary, and Civic of elections. The elections in 2007 was a contest comprising of more than 108 parties vying 210 parliamentary seats, and three significant candidates gunning for the Presidential through the ODM represented by Raila Odinga, PNU represented by the incumbent Mwai Kibaki, and ODM-Kenya represented by former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka. There were also other insignificant parties and candidates who participated. As was always the case, due to the enormous numbers of parties and candidates participating in all cadres of seats the elections were replete with logistical nightmares, irregularities, and illegalities. In the article A Choice for Peace? The Story of Forty-One Days of Mediation in Kenya Lindenmayer and Kaye remarks:

When the presidential election results announced by the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) indicated both a rapid disintegration of Odinga’s significant lead and a 2.5 percent margin between the two leading candidates, Odinga and Kibaki, suspicions of tampering were high—not least because the opposition had won ninety-nine seats at the parliamentary level to the PNU’s forty-three.

As a result of the dramatic disintegration of Odinga’s lead and eventual loss to Mwai Kibaki violence spontaneously broke out in several parts of the country pitting pro-government and opposition supporters and escalated to levels never experienced before in Kenya’s history. By the end of it all, there were reports of widespread looting, massacre, arson, sexual violence, beatings, intimidation, and threats. It was estimated that over 1,000 people had died and about 600,000 people were internally displaced from six out of the eight provinces with disastrous consequences for the economy, especially due to the hard-hit tourist industry the violence not only took the ethnic dimension, but was also motivated by other factors such as poverty, unemployment, and at some point even common criminals took advantage of the situation to advance their cause as the situation was verging on a catastrophic level, the panel of eminent African personalities and commenced the nail-biting mediation process that would last forty-one days.  

The method of the resolution of the conflict

Kenya has for years has been known as one of the safe havens of the African continent, and as such when the conflict of such magnitude as the one it experienced broke out, the effects reverberated and was felt across the continent and also attracted the attention of the international community. The conflict needed a resolution in the earliest time possible to avoid escalating to the level of genocide that was experienced in Rwanda in 1994.

The intervention, management or resolution method that appears to have been favored by a majority of the players was mediation. Kleinberg defines mediation as a form of conflict management in which a third party assists two or more contending parties to find a solution without resorting to force. The UN Guidance for Effective Mediation refers to mediation on similar terms as Kleinberg that: 

“Mediation is a process whereby a third party assists two or more parties, with their consent, to prevent, manage or resolve a conflict by helping them to develop mutually acceptable agreements. Further that it is a voluntary endeavor in which the consent of the parties is critical for a viable process and a durable outcome.”

The initial attempts at mediation were made by several personalities whose efforts yielded very little, and there is nothing much to write home about them. Nobel Peace Laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu was the first to arrive at the scene at a time when the scale of the crisis was still unclear, and the warring parties were still spurring with accusations of all manners flying left right and center: his efforts failed. .Lindenmayer and Kaye correctly remark that Desmond Tutu’s intervention could not have changed the fact that the moment for engagement was simply unripe. Conflict ripeness is one of the most important factors to consider before embarking on a mediation process, and a mediator must of necessity assess whether the conflict is ripe or not. Among the many ways of knowing whether the conflict is ripe for mediation is when the conflict is at a level:

“when antagonists recognize that they are in a mutually hurting stalemate and can sense that a way out is possible. Both sides become aware they cannot defeat the enemy outright and that continued violence not only will be costly and ineffective but will risk weakening their situation.”

Perhaps a better explanation of the meaning of conflict ripeness is that offered by Kleinberg in her article Understanding Success and Failure of International Mediation. Conflict per Kleiboer “is assumed that conflicts pass through a life cycle that encompasses several distinguishable phases, and that certain stages are more amenable to outside intervention than other “. Even though there are conflicting views as to how to recognize the moment or what would constitute  ripeness, but analyst has developed certain theories that may provide at least some rough guidelines: they include such theories as conflict following logic of time and the other which repudiates the logic of clock time and instead focus on “social” or “event” time. 

The efforts by Desmond Tutu subjected to any of the tests above show that timing the intervention was mistimed from whichever angle one chose to look at them, either from the context of clock time logic, or social or event time. The parties had not come to the realization of the magnitude of the conflict and were still holding firmly to their positions, and no events had taken place that could affect their perceptions and attitudes to think otherwise: the efforts were bound to fail.

The other personalities whose efforts followed that of Desmond Tutu, were the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazier, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, four former heads of state, Tanzania’s Benjamin Mkapa, Mozambique’s Joachim Chissano, Botswana’s Katumile Masire, and Zambia’s Kenneth Kaunda, their efforts, however, did not yield any positive outcome. The arrival of the many personalities created uncertainty and resulted in multiple and parallel uncoordinated mediations: these efforts too were doomed for various reasons including lack of understanding of the conflict, mediator unpreparedness, and unripeness. 

The best shot at the resolution of the conflict was the African Union(AU)sanctioned mediation effort led by the former Un Secretary General Koffi Annan. At the end of tension pact and riveting Forty-One-day mediation effort, white smoke billowed, and the country could breathe again. The success of the mediation has been widely credited to the personality/status of Koffi Annan. Lindenmayer and Kaye describe Koffi Annan as being loaded with years of mediation experience, an internationally renowned figure with moral authority and a robust political reputation, combining extensive political experience and unique negotiating skills with the ability to bring a wide pool of contacts to the negotiating table. The begging the question perhaps would then be what entails mediator personality/status, how does it impact on the mediation process, and lastly whether the success of the instant conflict could be attributed solely to the personality/status of the chief mediator.

The personality factor

The outcomes of mediation efforts according to available literature depend on several factors that may apply singularly or jointly depending on the circumstances of each case. The common factors that impact on mediation outcome are numerous, but this paper will identify and discuss a few of them listed hereunder. Firstly, characteristics of the disputes including conflict ripeness, level of intensity and nature of the dispute. Secondly, the parties and their relationship which includes identification of parties and cohesiveness among others. Thirdly, the characteristics of the mediator which includes leverage and status among others. Fourth is the international context. The success mediation Kenya 2008 is synonymous with the name Koffi Annan and all and sundry attributes that success to him.

Meaning of Mediator personality

Personality refers to the combination of characteristics or qualities that form an individual’s distinctive character. The Cambridge Dictionaries on the other hand, defines personality asthe special combination of qualities in a person that makes that person different from others, as shown by the way the person behaves, feels, and thinks”. Within the context of mediation, the term personality also assumes the same meaning as those of the general usage; it means the characteristics or qualities of the mediator.  

The qualities and characteristics of a mediator are numerous, and the list is inexhaustible. The Advanced mediation skill offers guidelines of some qualities that would make for a good mediator which includes fairness, impartiality, independence, patience, firmness, tact/diplomacy, commitment and discipline among others. The key characteristics of a mediator which most writers including Kleiboer recognizes and consider important in the existing literature are impartiality, leverage and status. 

Mediator Impartiality or neutrality is an exciting concept but also very confusing to scholars and practitioners.

Impartiality / neutrality

Mediator Impartiality or neutrality which are treated interchangeably is an exciting concept but also very confusing to scholars and practitioners alike. Whereas impartiality denotes the state of “the absence of bias or preference in favor of one or more negotiators, their interests, or the specific solutions that they are advocating, neutrality, on the other hand, denotes the absence of any relationship whether past or current between the mediator and the parties. To the extent that neutral mediators take no sides, they are said to behave.  Kleiboer offers a summarised and clear description of both thus: 

“impartiality seems to imply an unbiased stance of the mediator toward the disputants during the mediation process, whereas neutrality refers to the fact that there does not exist any strong positive or negative relationship between a mediator and the parties before the mediation occurs.”

There are different schools of thought on the impact of impartiality on mediation outcomes, with others claiming that it is critical in the success of a mediation process, while others claim that a mediator need not be impartial for the success of a process. On the other hand, there are those who believe that acceptability is dependent on mediator bias than anything else.  The latter groups’ position seems to be in tandem with the theory espoused in Advanced Mediation Skills, Course C: Course Book that neutrality is an illusion as there is no such thing as a detached or objective observer. Within the context of impartiality and neutrality and closely related to them are several factors which if present or otherwise will influence the mediation outcomes. For instance, the impartiality or neutrality may instill confidence, which will, in turn, result in acceptability and then success. On the other hand, is the bias of the mediator towards one of the disputants which may have an influence on either side depending on what they believe the mediator’s strong ties with the opposite party may achieve. 

Koffi Annan arrived in Kenya as an impartial and neutral individual without any preference or bias position, or any known or perceived relationship with any of the feuding parties or their principals and was readily accepted by both, unlike the other personalities who came ahead of him. The first mediators to enter into the fray were coming at the instance of particular parties in what Lindenmayer and Kaye say appeared to create the possibility of “mediator shopping” for the most favorable outcome. The attempts by President Museveni of Uganda, for instance, could easily be said to have flopped because of the perception of partiality or lack of neutrality by one of the parties since the other side invited him. Museveni’s behavior at especially of holding a meeting with the President alone at state house did not help his cause. Frazer’s effort on the hand was less appealing to both parties since her equal apportionment of blame to both sides was most likely perceived as a sign of bias on her part. The most glaring sign from both sides of the acceptability, trust, and confidence on Koffi Annan were when one side rejected the attempts to appoint Cyril Ramaphosa based on his perceived links with the opposition, forcing Annan to state the withdrawal of his name for chair.

If the reasoning on the Advanced Mediation Skills, Course C: Course Book is anything to go by, however, then, the most important characteristics that influence mediation outcomes are the mediator’s ability to choose the appropriate response to the conflict regarding the roles that are more likely to lead to any of the three values of justice, freedom, and empowerment. The ability in this regard is, therefore, that is to be a process and value advocate. Other than the apparent neutrality and impartiality, however, going by the overall manner in which Koffi Annan managed the process from the onset to the end it is clear beyond peradventure that his focus was more on the fairness and integrity of the process and values. The success of the Kenya mediation 2008 was, therefore, a resultant of the impartiality and advocacy characteristics in the chief mediator.

Leverage

Though a very elusive component of mediation, it is one of the characteristics of a mediator that impacts of the mediation outcomes. Leverage per Touval and Zartman refers to the mediator’s power or ability to provide additional attractiveness to the parties that naturally leads them to agreement. They argue that mediators generally have two ways of getting disputants out of stalemate namely, either by providing communications and ideas so attractive that they “naturally” lead the parties to an agreement or by adding arguments and inducements that make unattractive proposals look attractive. Kleinberg on her part defines leverage as the mediator’s ability to put pressure on one or both of the conflicting parties to accept a proposed settlement. Kleiboers definition is in all fours with Zartman’s explanation of the three sources of mediator leverage which comes: 

irst, from the parties’ need for a solution that the mediator can provide; second, from the parties’ susceptibility to shifting weight that the mediator can apply; and third, from the parties’ interest in side payments that the mediator can either offer (“carrots”) or withhold (“sticks”).’’

Within the context of leverage, there are different schools of thought on its effectiveness on outcomes of the mediation process. There are those of the view that having power and influence is key to the success of mediation process to the extent that disputants will be swayed one way or another especially if the mediator has the power to either release or withdraw resources. Then there are those of the view that lack of power or influence is key to the extent that Such a lack of power provides a mediator with possibilities “to permit an open and relaxed relationship between human disputants. It can be cogently argued then that the leverage appropriate depends on the circumstance of each case, but the different school is in consensus that either too much of power and influence or the complete lack of it is not desirous.

The statement that the appointment of Koffi Annan was nothing less than an inspired choice explains it all. According to Lindenmayer and Kaye, Koffi as a person carried with him loads of mediation experience, was an internationally renowned figure with moral authority and a robust political reputation, combined with extensive political experience and unique negotiating skills with the ability to bring a wide pool of contacts to the negotiating table. Koffi’s character as described above gave him the significant leverage over the parties and as such was in a position to put pressure or sway them from their hardline positions. Of utmost importance within this context was Koffi’s high moral authority, strong political reputation, and connections. Having, been a carrier peace crusader within the UN, the Secretary-General of the UN, had close connections with the powers that be during his long carrier at the UN, coupled with the fact that he was mediating on behalf of the African Union, meant that he had the necessary resources that he could flaunt, and the power to influence adverse sanctions to the uncooperative party.

Given the above analysis, it thus necessarily follows that Koffi Annan efforts bore fruits because of the reasons that follow. Firstly, because they all needed a solution whether it be that President Mwai Kibaki’s election would be validated through the process, or the opposition’s contention that their election was stolen and they recognized that he had the capability and capacity to help bring a solution. Secondly, secondly because of his experience, moral authority, and political reputation, the parties were susceptible to the shifting weight that he could apply. Lastly, because he had the ability through his connections to satisfy the interest of the parties, a case in point is the US Government’s promise to donate funds for reconstruction and peacebuilding.

Status

Equally crucial to the success or otherwise of mediation processes is the element of the status of the mediator status. The ordinary meaning of status found in the dictionaries revolves around the level of respect or importance a person or organization attracts, rank or position or standing in a setup or society. Status per Kleinberg refers to one’s personal or organizational reputation, track records, and specialized expertise. In mediation, the mediator status is generally categorized into either institutional or positional status. The categorization is derived from the identity or standing mediator’s organization, or the mediators own standing within his constituency. Just like leverage, there are different schools of thought on the impact of mediator status on the success of mediation processes. One group argues that the higher the status of the mediator the greater the chances of success while the other argues that the success depends on the extent of equilibrium between mediator and representatives, in other terms, a mediator’s relative status.

The fact of Koffi Annan’s status in the last couple of decades within the realm of international conflict resolution is not any news, and he carried with him both the institutional and positional reputation into the mediation table. Firstly, the African Union on whose behalf he was mediating is a reputable organization of high standing, legitimacy, and leverage not only within the African continent but also internationally. Secondly, Koffi’s UN career both as Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations and as Secretary-General, meant that he was coming to the negotiating table with unquestionable status cut above his peers and was therefore in a position, though he had retired, to commit both the UN, the AU, and the international community to back up his activities. 

From the analysis above, it can be assertively argued that the success of the Kenya mediation 2008 was mainly due to the personality of the Chief Mediator to wit: his impartiality, advocacy for process and value, leverage and status.

Other actors & factors

It is an undisputed fact as alluded to in the preceding chapter that mediator personality plays a vital role in determining the outcome of a mediation process. Sight, however,  should not be lost of  several other factors that includes: firstly, the characteristics of the disputes such as conflict ripeness, levels of intensity and nature of dispute, secondly the parties and their relationship which includes identification or parties and cohesiveness among others, the international context,  and lastly the process variables. The United Nations Guidance for Effective Mediation, for instance, identifies such factors as preparedness; consent; impartiality; inclusivity; national ownership; international law and normative frameworks; coherence, coordination, and complementarity of the mediation effort; and quality peace agreements as some of the critical fundamentals that generally influence mediation efforts.

In the cause of the Mediation Kenya 2008, numerous discernable factors could have contributed to the success of the process alongside the personality of the Chief Mediator. The detailed discourse over these factors will perhaps form the subject of another paper, but, it is worth recognizing albeit in passing their role in the success of the instant mediation.

The Kenyan conflict had and was likely results in devastating consequences both internally, and regionally and internationally: the international context in which it was taking place would, therefore, play a significant role in its outcome. Kleiboer in Understanding the Successes and Failures of International Mediation say: “In particular, the impact of other parties and other conflicts taking place simultaneously with the are very relevant”.  The panel of mediators involved the International Community and of their participation had tremendous effects.  For instance, Ban Ki Moon’s reassurance that the UN was ready to increase its support for the process as needed reaffirmed the integrity and legitimacy of both the Kenyan conflict process and acted as a caution to the parties of the consequences of failures to commit to the same. The blatant threats issued by Condoleezza Rice, that failure was not an option; and that the future of the relationship of the US with both sides and their legitimacy depended on their cooperation to achieve this political solution cannot be underestimated as far as the outcome of this process was concerned.

The other factor was the use of experts at some of the crucial stages especially when the panel wanted to at times to depoliticize discussions, to merely keep them focused, or to prove that what felt like uncharted territory had actually been tried and tested successfully, elsewhere. Lindenmayer and Kaye say that One way of the ways attempting to bring the parties out of destructive patterns of mutual accusation was to by the panel were drawn on the knowledge of experts in the field, thereby attempting to turn a politic question into a technical one. Among the experts they called were the personnel from Department of Political Affairs (DPA), from the Electoral Division of the (DPA) and Gernot Erler, Minister of State of the Federal Republic of Germany, to share his experience of coalition government.

There was also adequate preparation by the panel before the process commenced. According to the United Nations Guidance for Effective Mediation preparedness entails the development of strategies for different phases and:

“It also allows the mediator to guide and monitor the mediation process, help strengthen (where necessary) the negotiating capacity of the conflict parties and other stakeholders, assist them in reaching agreements, and galvanize support (including among international actors) for implementation”.

The article says that Koffi Annan arrived when all the preparations had been done. Before arrived, he had laid a solid foundation for what would become one of the central components of his strategy: a single mediation, as well as the full, undivided support of the international community. The panel too had roped in the Civil Society, the Religious Community, and the media fraternity to make the process an inclusive process that would carry the nation along with it. At the same time, they set up a fully functional secretariat with experts. The preparations were to prove very valuable in the process.

Other elements which contributed to the success were the valuable skills employed by the mediators, the internal cohesiveness of the disputants, the consent of the parties, the fact that conflicting parties were easily identifiable (only two), the timing of the entry of the panel when it was clear to all and sundry that the conflict was ripe for mediation. In the end, Lindenmayer and Kaye summarize the factors that enabled the successful completion of the process into seven points that attribute the success to the activities of the mediator.

Conclusion

The Kenyan post-election conflict was a unique one and captured the attention of the whole world for several reasons and had had to be resolved sooner or later. Whereas, the electoral malpractice arising from the bungled presidential election appeared to have been the cause, it later transpired that there were deep-rooted problems bedeviling the country such as land grievances, nepotism, discrimination, corruption, high-handedness of the current and previous administrations which were the underlying causes: the bungled elections were merely a trigger.  Literally, everybody whether they be Regional or International Leaders, and Organizations made attempts to resolve the conflict in one way or the other.  The favored method of resolving the conflicts appeared to have been by way of mediation. Mediation is one of the most popular third-party conflict management strategies that the disputants consider.  Because of its characteristic as a voluntary and non-binding process, disputants tend to be more attracted to it than other methods.

At the end of a grueling, tension pact and riveting Forty-One-day of mediation effort, when white smoke billowed, and the country could breathe again all credit went to the Chief Mediator Koffi Annan. It would appear that the success of the mediation was credited to Koffi Annan because before his arrival, the attempts by several others of almost equal status including sitting and former presidents, African Union Leaders, high ranking US officials and other eminent personalities attempts had come to naught. Whether the above contention is correct or not has been a subject of mooted discussions and hence the necessity to try to find out whether the success could be attributed solely to the personality of Koffi Annan.

As noted in chapter 4 above, the outcomes of mediation efforts according to available literature depend on several factors including the characteristics of the disputes; the parties and their relationship, the characteristics of the mediator, the international context, and lastly, the mediator activities. Hence the begging the question of whether mediator personality alone is enough to influence the outcome of a mediation process.

Could it be said that Desmond Tutu’s attempts failed because of lack of requisites personality to handle the Kenyan dispute, the answer is definitely in the negative? Desmond Tutu would have fitted the billing of a suitable mediator save for the fact that his intervention was utterly mistimed. He arrived on the scene before the disputants came to the realization of the magnitude of the conflict and were still holding firmly to their positions and no events had taken place that could affect their perceptions and attitudes to think otherwise.  The initial attempt by the then AU leader and Ghanaian present John Kufuor befell the same fate despite his very impressive credentials. It is worth noting that even Benjamin Mkapa’s initial intervention came to naught for the same reasons of unripeness.

The other attempts by such leaders as the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Jendayi Frazier, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, four former heads of state, Tanzania’s Benjamin Mkapa, Mozambique’s Joachim Chissano, Botswana’s Katumile Masire, and Zambia’s Kenneth Kaunda, never yielded much for various reasons. Among the reasons for the failures included uncertainty created by multiple, parallel, and uncoordinated mediations on the one hand, and lack of understanding of the conflict, mediator unpreparedness on the other hand. Of course, there were also elements of lack of essential mediator characteristics.

Lindenmayer and Kaye aptly remarked that the selection of Koffi Annan was an inspired choice as he carried with him loads of mediation experience, was an internationally renowned figure with moral authority and a robust political reputation, combined with extensive political experience and unique negotiating skills with the ability to bring a wide pool of contacts to the negotiating table. The overall package that Koffi brought along with him transcends the element of personality and encompasses even the process variables qualities, his personality, however, was the main contributor to the success. Worth mentioning are also the other factors discussed in chapter 5 that includes the supportive external environment, use of experts, preparation, consent of the parties and inclusivity among others.

While it is undoubtedly clear that Koffi’s personality was the most prominent instrument and the most critical factor on the success of the Mediation Kenya 2008, the success or failure of a mediation process, however, ultimately depends on the conglomeration of many other factors, and the willingness of the conflict parties to accept and commit the process.

Bibliography

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Kleiboer, Marieke. “Understanding Success and Failure of International Mediation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40, no. 2 (1996): 360–89. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002796040002007.

Lindenmayer, Elisabeth, and Josie Lianna Kaye. “A Choice for Peace?: The Story of Forty-One Days of Mediation in Kenya.” International Peace Institute, 2009. JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep09578.

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9 Comments on Mediation of the 2008 post-election conflict in Keny​a: Was it a case of mediator personality?

Our colleague Gordon Ogola has written a very good overview of the fundamentals of mediation, in particular the character of a good mediator: impartiality -an unbiased stance during the process, no matter what his values are in other contexts, patience and tact. Status is important, as well as a certain degree of leverage – the ability to bring in some influence from outside. Ogola then applies these criteria to the 41-day mediation process carried out by former U.N. Secretary General Koffi Annen in Kenya in 2008 after a contested election for president. There was a real danger of wide-spread violence thoughout Kenya by the supporters of the two leading candidates for President. The long U.N. experience of Koffi Annen, his wide range of contacts in the international milieu, the fact that he was an African in an African conflict and backed by the African Union all played a positive role.

What would be interesting is to contrast this successful mediation effort of Koffi Annen in Kenya with the relative failure of his more recent efforts in Myanmar (Burma) concerning the Rohingya (a Bengali-speaking Muslim population on the frontier with Bangladesh).Annen was chair of a team appointed by the Myanmar government to make recommendations concerning the ongoing conflict which had led to much local violence and to the flight of a large number of Rohingya to Bangladesh. The mission lasted nearly a year. It was divided into two time segments – the first a fact-finding effort, the second a period of time for analysis and then the writing of recommendations.

The recommendations were those of good sense and could have been made without the long drawnout fact-finding aspect as the basic facts were known from a 1992 period of oppression and flight of over a million to Bangladesh. The only change from 1992 was that the government of Myanmar is today a mixed military-civilian government while the earlier oppression was that of a totally military government.

None of the recommendations proposed by Koffi Annen and his team have been put into practice by the Myanmar government. The violence has continued causing large-scale suffering.

The character and basic skills of Koffi Annen were the same in the two cases. The difference in outcome merits study. Rene Wadlow

    Hi Rene
    thanks for your insightful comments. The intervention by Koffi in the Myanmar conflict in my view was not a mediation process per-se. the was mandated to examine the complex challenges facing Rakhine State and to propose answers to those challenges. its role was therefore more of a fact finding mission and then to make recommendations on how those challanges could be solved. unlike amediation process where a neutral third party is tasked with facilitating a mutually acceptable agreement between the parties t, the commission in the instant case was consulting parties only for purposes of getting their views of he challenges and their proposal on how they could be surmounted. the settings of the process adopted by the commission was thus quite distinct from a mediation process where parties to the conflict meet in a round table. the personality of Koffi as a mediator in my view was not relevant in the Myanmar case where he was a chairman of a commission and not a mediator. But even if it was a mediation, so many factors quite different from the Kenyan circumstance would come into play such as the mode of appointment of the mediator, identification of parties, composition of the panel and so forth.

Dear Gordon,

thank you very much for your critical analysis. There are many points to be discussed and to be put into question. While these are not only the role, the competence, and the impact of a specific personality acting as the mediator, but also the circumstance that 108 parties took part in the elections. What a majestic task for the voters to identify the differences and an even more complex task for the proper parties to identify and display a proper political concept. Would you say that it was possible for everybody to keep track of this diverse field of parties? And what kind of impact would you say has this broad field of parties for the proper process of elections?

Best regards, Daniel Erdmann

Thank you very much for the article. I found it extremely interesting, clear and punctual. I totally agree with the author, the greatest success factor of international mediation in Kenya must be attributed to the personal conditions of Mr Annen, his career, experience, skills, and moral standing provide the parties with confidence, security, will necessary to intervene efficiently in the mediation process. Remember also the cases of mediation of international conflicts in Latin America resolved by Pope John Paul II, in which it is precisely the personal condition of the mediator that favours the final result. I only wish to emphasize that although it is true, the efforts made previously did not have the desired success, they probably played an important role in the maturation of the conflict and in the preparation of the parties regarding their participation during the Annen mediation.

    Thanks Ana, I totally agree that the initial attempts played a significant role towards maturation of the conflict. Other than the maturation, those attempts signaled the interests of the international community which helped in piling pressure on the conflicting parties to look for a resolution.

For some reason, I was able unable to join the round-table even though I had no trouble logging in to the conference site. In any case, thank you for the very interesting article, I appreciate learning the history of the Republic of Kenya, the economic and social conditions, the conflicts and the mediation attempts to resolve the conflicts. I agree that having the right personality in to lead the mediation process is critical, we certainly came across ample examples in our training and in real life to support that perspective. However, it will be interesting to compare other successful mediation efforts in the region – subject to similar circumstance to see if the character of the chief mediator is indeed as important an element as in the case in Kenya. There are many highly respected individual mediators with great charism and expertise in the world that are not politically high profile nor world-known, they are not the “rock start” mediator or hold high positions in the UN. How did they reach a successful outcome? Most importantly, what if Koffi Annan was not available at the time, would the mediation outcome be completely different or would other elements that you mention – ripeness, nature of the intensity, and so forth still offer positive impacts on the outcome?

    Hi Louisa,
    Thanks for your comments. Whereas my article concentrated more on the personality of the mediator, I did acknowledge in the final parts of the article that there were many others factors which contributed to the success of the mediation of the Kenyan conflict. The UN Guidance for effective mediation highlights several factors that could contribute to successes of mediation processes other than the personality. Renown authors have also pronounced themselves on the many factors which contributes to success. Kleiboer categorizes them as contextual and process variables which includes characteristics of the mediator, relations between the parties, the international context among others. it therefore does not necessarily follow that the mediator must possess such “Rock Star” status as Koffi to facilitate successful mediation. whatever factor is applicable will always be determined by the circumstance of each situation

I walked away as a young man convinced that change is possible, even radical revolutionary change.
Koffi Annan
Positive attitude and belief that the solution exists in the most difficult situations is the attitude that every mediator must have.

The solution to the conflict in Kenya is an interesting example of mediation for several reasons. One of them is that the entire process is personalized. The mediation process had the first and last name Koffi Annan. By 2008, the most important moments in Koffi Annan’s career were:

§ 1962: Starts working at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland

§ 1993: Becomes head of peacekeeping operations

§ 1997: Appointed seventh Secretary-General of the United Nations

§ 2001: Wins Nobel Peace Prize

§ 2006: Steps down as secretary-general after 10 years
Numerous positive results in work gave him the necessary credibility to lead the mediation process in Kenya as a person of authority, knowledge and positive results. Approach to mediation in Kenya was a mix of several very important elements. One of them is leadership. The leader is educated with a rich and successful career through the ability and knowledge. All these factors in the negotiation process in Kenya were familiar with these facts.

Another specificity is the application of excellent negotiating skills. The fact that the process of mediation continually lasts for 41 days speaks about determination, high motivation, persistence and perseverance to end the mediation process in a positive way.

It is interesting to note that Koffi Annan was hospitalized during the mediation in Kenya and that he was negotiating the process from the hospital bed. There was no standing. Negotiating schools recommend the students to master two very important skills, preparing for a negotiating process that involves possession of physical and physical fitness. Negotiation is a process that can last in continuity over ten hours in order to discount a party with less willing.

The complexity of the problem in Kenya and the post-election conflict is that the number of stakeholders was large, the problems not only in the field of politics, but in other segments of Kenya’s state structure made the process of mediation more complex. For this reason, mediation had different interest groups for representatives of political parties, religious communities, women, NGOs, businessmen, as well as many others in the chain that led to a positive solution to the conflict.

The general elections in Kenya in 2008 certainly left a significant mark in the political history of this country. The presidential elections held in 2017 followed a number of irregularities that led Kenya’s Supreme Court to annul elections for the result of which riots broke out when some 20 people were killed. The reason for irregular choices is the hacking of election results. The fact that there is greater control and correction of irregularities, as well as adequate reaction of the institutions of this country, we can say that the moves in terms of the social organization of Kenya are visible and the impression is that the situation is much better compared to 2008.

Comparing the situation of two different periods of time, there is an unequivocal conclusion that the complex problem in this country is resolute, but that it takes time, patience, and perseverance.

No doubt, the mediation process in Kenya in 2008 was successful and thanks to the international community’s view that the problem in this country could cause widespread damage. Strong support in the mediation process had a team from Europe, the United States, and the United Nations.

Mediation as a process of conflict resolution is advantageous in relation to other methods because it is adaptable and shaped by the nature of the conflict that the example of general elections in Kenya shows us. Impartial is objective and is based on free will and positive motivations of all stakeholders.

References:

Quote Koffi Annan https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44412275, site visited 27/5/2019

Conflict resolution report in Kenya 2008 https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/KenyaMediation_IPI2009.pdf

News of the presidential election in Kenya 2017http://rs.n1info.com/Svet/a314872/Ponisteni-rezultati-izbora-u-Keniji.html , site visited 27/5/2019

This article is fascinating and gives a summary of mediation success or failure in 2008 post-election conflict in Kenya. Apart from Koffi Anan’s personality and other reasons that you have outlined to be responsible for the success of the mediation, i forsee that Mr Anan succeed as well simple because he was a role model for both parties to the conflict.

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