Mitigating the crisis in democracy – preemptive mediation and the survival of the planet.

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT *

This article proposes that mediation be applied preemptively to the working conditions of political professionals, as a means of protecting democratic processes from the psychological factors that impair them. Drawing on management theory, social psychology and communication practice, the author argues that stressors in political work, some conscious and some not, generate closed mindedness, premature closure and the rejection of information, and that these in turn contribute to polarisation and to the deterioration of collaborative decision making. Three interventions are proposed for testing: non violent communication, team coaching organised around a shared vision, and talking circles, each introduced through a narrative drawn from the management theories of Maslow and Bennis. The author sets out how such interventions might be measured against baselines derived from the taxonomy of political stressors and from instruments developed within terror management theory, and closes with an account of his own experience in Icelandic politics, where two of the three methods were applied.

KEYWORDS *

Preemptive mediation, political stress, polarisation, closed mindedness, terror management theory, non violent communication, team coaching, talking circles, democratic process, management theory, wellbeing of politicians, narrative

INTRODUCTION

How do we mitigate polarization, existential fears, and other factors contributing to stressors in political work?

Theory and solution focus: This paper holds suggestions for those willing to consider preemptive mediation in a wide context; even institutions. It is for those who wish to install helpful effects for the work of those involved in professional politics. The paper draws on a selection of socio-psychological management and communication theories and practices, the readers may put these into the context of their wider learnings.

A research question:

Is it possible to apply the learnings of management theory and psychology to mitigate stressors – that may work against the democratic process- affecting those working professionally in the field of politics?

Can we see this as preemptive mediation? That is a way of forestalling some conflicts and lead to more harmonious coworking and increased speed in attaining effective and applicable solutions.

MAIN CORPUS

A deeper look

This paper is written and put forth as an encouragement, to individuals and institutions involved in mediation, those involved in politics and political science, in psychology and other fields that may be an influence on the planet to further the cause of our existence, they are hereby all encouraged to consider preemptive mediation deeply.

When stress turns negative

The stressors in politics may both be stressors as recognized by more rational thinking (Flinders et al, 2020) and as may be more subconscious; that can then have an effect on cognitive motivation and collaboration outcomes (Greenberg, Pyszczynski, and Solomon, 1986; Kruglanski, 2004; Lecky, 1973; LeShan, 1996).

Will mitigating the stressors of people professionally involved in politics help mitigate some of the effects of unhealthy radicalization, polarization, and fear in politics and other connected factors that currently pose a serious risk to democratic processes worldwide (McCoy, Tahmina & Murat, 2018)? Can this then be preemptive mediation in action?

Is it possible to get to the participants – professionals in politics? Can we benefit them by accessing an enabling narrative that connects to “communicative technologies” that supports and strengthens the process by mitigating stressors: here; the democratic one?

Why is this needed and important?

There are real dangers currently threatening democratic processes worldwide (McCoy et al, 2018). They are built in part on fear and fear reactions that work against democratic processes and effective decision-making (Amsel, Harbo, & Halberstam, 2015). These fears can irrationally influence decisions and collaboration. There can be decision-making biases (Fiske, 2004) and factors leading to rapidly increasing polarization (McCoy, Rahman, and Somer, 2018), as well as other behavioral influences that affect solution orientation negatively. These can be based on or embedded in common cognition mechanisms that can hinder clear views; such as those contributing to ‘closed-mindedness’ and ‘jumping to closure’ (Kruglanski, 2004). Discussion would then be forestalled and lead astray if these cognitive factors are not mitigated.

Hindrances to effective solution making or ‘political work on behalf of society’ can be viewed as so serious currently as threatening the whole democratic process.

Should we as preemptive mediators be concerned about fear and stress in politics?

Some of the hindrances to democratic solution making can be embedded in ‘stressors’. The stressors make life difficult for those working professionally in politics and can work against good judgment and effective collaboration (Flinders et al, 2020). In all too common cases fears may even divert attention from issues that generate a sense of ´threat’ and might be ‘most important’, such influence then stalls or disrupts solution making completely (Greenberg, Pyszczynski, and Solomon, 1986) – and can pose a serious risk to society at large when determining outcomes in politics. Yes, we ought to be concerned!

Why would effective mediators help?

Hindrances can be viewed as being based in part on denial mechanisms aimed even by the subconscious to protect people’s (here; working in politics) sense of self when under stress (Lecky, 1973; Leshan, 1996). These can, as is known, affect humanity at large as discussed in ‘Terror Management Theory’ (Greenberg et al, 1986) wherein it is asserted that cultural norms are in part maintained to work against existential threats (the fear of death) to the detriment of outcomes in social processes. Mediation is known as being viewed to be a process that surfaces information, including fears where applicable.

Denial

If ‘denial’ is ‘a norm’, something that happens constantly to avert the feeling of overwhelming fears, it may very well be a cornerstone in increasing polarization. This happens for instance often when ‘others’ with different ‘world views’ cause ‘negative reactions’, such reactions can very much jeopardize sensible solution making (Amsel et al, 2015). Especially when the issues under consideration can be seen to have to do with the ‘others’ more than ‘self’, and the ´self´ aims to brush them aside by not being aware, not listening, not considering, and so forth. Any mediator who has worked with potential divorcees knows this.

Existential fears – mediation – life and solutions

Existential fears or factors related to cognitive processes as ´closed mindedness´ (Kruglanski, 2004) are also embedded in this larger context. That larger context with its broader spectrum of issues may fuel what is considered a serious and an ongoing crisis in democracy (McCoy et al, 2018) – see the next section – showing us that there may be enormous benefits in mitigating them, and plenty of work to do for will be preemptive mediators.

People need help with communicative processes as events and things needing consideration are encountered that may be too much for peoples’ sense of self to tolerate (Lecky, 1973; LeShan, 1996). It is maintained by Kruglanski the social psychologist (Kruglanski, 2004), in line with ‘Terror Management Theory’, that stressors or fixed attitudes of mind can easily make people ‘jump to closure’ bringing less optimal solutions, and make them shut out other individuals as relevant information sources or collaborators.

The serious risks facing democracy itself in the world

Increasing polarization in politics and society (McCoy, Rahman, and Somer, 2018), lack of trust in democratic representation (Butzlaff & Messinger-Zimmer, 2020), and increased volatility as seen in the ‘rise of radical challenger parties´ (Kriesi, 2020), and the storming of the US Capitol this year are among the first things that come to mind. All these and all such can be further fuel on fears and difficulties (stressors) as seen in narratives based on feelings of doom alluding to the death of democracy circulating currently. Such outlook is evident in a 2019 report from ‘The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance’ quoted here to provide a glimpse of current existential threats:

“We certainly cannot and should not ignore the contemporary threats to democracy such as the blatant disrespect for the norms of multilateralism, extreme inequality resulting in the capture of politics by elites, persistent corruption that continues to rob ordinary citizens of opportunities of service provision and better quality of life; conflictual identity politics, intolerance, and societal polarisation aggravated by social media and spurred by populistic politics that promise quick and simple solutions to complex socio-economic problems and more. Added to these pressures, are global development threats, such as climate change and its perils; fears of a looming global economic slow-down exacerbated by a trade war between the US and China, and global insecurity—not least exacerbated by terrorism from external and internal forces.” (International IDEA, 2019). Another article furthers the assessment by stating that remedies are needed that take seriously a conception of democracy as a social and cultural practice rather than only as a means of selecting leaders (Laughlin, 2019). Will mediators help? How about your institution? Are we tired of concepts about concepts and do we want thinking and actions that move reality and help with solution-making?

Cultural practice

Hereby it is good to ask the reader – what in your mind is cultural practice? And how can preemptive mediation be envisioned to be of good use? Can the thoughts of this article enrichen your possibilities and approach?

Fears produce stress and hinder collaboration

Fears and cognitive motivations that are counterproductive are very serious and can effectively hinder the well-being of those who work professionally in politics, and their collaboration and decision-making as it pertains to society at large.

When the issues seem overly serious the psyche can work to direct from the ‘serious issues’ to something that seems less threatening (LeShan, 1996). Denial mechanisms assertively can be so strong that they may even make people brush serious issues completely away in illogical ways (Kruglanski, 2004; Leshan, 1996) and work on the “important” issues can effectively be stopped. Such fears can lead to the outright rejection of applicable data and verifiable truths (LeShan, 1996). It ought to be rather easy to see how such reactions and cognition may make the democratic process fully jeopardized, especially when people holding such fears may appear to behave perfectly professionally as when the fears are subconscious.

Are we open to working at solutions? Does mediation as a preemptive process help?

For Kruglanski how ‘open’ or ‘closed minded’ people get in interactions has to do with their motivation; where he specifically draws out the person’s need for certainty as a motivating factor and refers to it as ‘need for closure’ (Kruglanski, 2004). How ‘open-minded’ people can be had in part to do with how well they can tolerate stressors. This is in line with how those who have looked into behavioral motivation describe possible avoidance of what threatens a coherent sense of self (Lecky, 1973) and effects of ‘catastrophic anxiety’ that may be partially or fully subconscious and thwart peoples’ ability to tackle issues or work collaboratively for solutions (Leshan, 1996). Kruglanski and those involved with the other school of thought ‘Terror Management Theory’ have highlighted that people may even have a strong need for avoiding closure when issues may be felt to be overly threatening (Greenberg et al, 1986; Kruglanski, 2004).

Fear – something we can help each other with?

People may appear to be ‘together’ and have outwardly professional behavior while their psyche is working nonstop to keeping them from being aware of their own ‘catastrophic anxiety’ – terror; leading them to avoid discussion, listening, and effective solution making.

Here we unearth a phenomenon that may definitely shape how people can communicate with others for problem-solving – especially where the stakes are high and the stressors as monumental as in politics (Flanders et al, 2020). Currently, psychology has increased in its theoretical capacity to deal with measures related to emotions, even the subconscious, and their relation to decision making (Lerner, Li, Valdesolo & Kassam, 2015).

This article’s proposal revolves around seeing if these factors composed of stressors and fears [conscious or subconscious] can be mitigated by interventions that strengthen people and give motivational direction; will we find ways of doing preemptive mediation?

Bringing out the hypothesis

Is it possible through interventions to counter dangers to democratic processes? When the dangers lie in cognition, outlook, and communication patterns the hypothesis is that we can! This outlook on possibility has been present in the interventions of behavioral psychology as well known through the work of Aron T. Beck (Beck, 2019) [as with Cognitive Behavioral Therapy], and related schools of thought as seen in ‘Acceptance and Commitment Therapy’ (Harris & Samuel, 2020). Those therapies work at mitigating fears so that people can behave more rationally and have more well-being. Why not aim for more well-being in politics and better solutions?

What type of interventions?

Here three interventions are proposed as possibilities. They are based upon a narrative built from management theory and psychology coupled together with ‘communication technology’ that can be tested out. The aim is to foster a focus on values and cognitive motivation to strengthen democratic processes through effective communication as available through various branches of learning in modern times.

These interventions can be directed at ‘professionals working in politics by professional mediators which can think of ingenious ways to offer their preemptive services or by the appropriate institutions that can utilize their knowledge base and access.

Results – do we want data?

It would be great to apply quantifiable measure baselines before and after interventions to see how the relevant cognitive factors [for instance as discussed by Kruglanski, 2004] and stressors [as indicated by Flinders et al, 2020] have changed.

Stressors in political work are asserted to be counterproductive to collaboration and thus to democratic processes. Relevant concepts might appear in the large context in things as: ‘polarization’, ‘narrow mindedness’, ‘jumping to closure’, ‘sense of threat’, ‘sense of losing self-coherence’ with more.

What types of questions are we aiming to answer? What type of discussion do we generate? Can we increase the relevance of mediation for society at large?

By doing this work we will aim to answer questions as ‘Can sharing certain information and practices regarding motives and specific communication/ collaboration techniques decrease the risk for “closed-mindedness” and mitigate markers for polarization?’

Can we decrease participants’ sense of threat or existential fears?

Will such interventions help foster a more solution-based outlook and effective solution outcomes?

Will interventions mitigate the common stressors seen in politics (Flinders, Weinberg, Weinberg, Geddes, Kwiatkowski, 2020)? And strengthen the democratic process?

Further on ‘stressors and threats’

Stressors are now asserted to negatively affect work performance as seen in research on medical doctors (Tyssen, 2019; Yates, 2020) and recently politics have come evermore into the discussion in thought on stress and work performance (Flinders et al, 2020). Common stressors are considered very relevant to politics in general and have been shown via testing of physical cortisol levels to be a strong factor in voter participation (French, Smith, Alford, Guck, Birnie & Hibbing, 2014), even bringing out a recommendation from the researchers that “politics is only one part of life and taking extreme steps to get people involved in politics may not be worth it if medical and psychological welfare is adversely affected”(French et al, 2011). Now ponder that amazing quote for a moment.

Politics as a workspace

Research on ‘workplace politics’ has shown a correlation with distress and aggressive behavior (Vigoda-Gadot, 2002). Researchers have pointed out that despite the singular importance of the work of politicians, little work has been done considering their wellbeing and psychological health (Flinders et al, 2020). Flinders et. al, 2020 have proposed a specific ‘taxonomy of stressors’ as being relevant to professional work in politics where they consider both unique and universal stressors. They for instance highlight the ‘lifestyle stressor’ where long working hours, impact on family and leisure time are mentioned. These findings include negative effects of big workloads being reported by 78% of members of the Australian Federal Parliament, and problems with physical symptoms of stress as regarding sleep, headaches, and digestive problems being reportedly higher for people working in politics than managers with comparatively similar seniority levels (Flinders et al, 2020).

The findings coupled together with the reality of altogether too common existential fears may be more a part and parcel of working politics than almost any other profession. Politics shape the lives and welfare of nations, so these are very serious issues!

Can preemptive mediation help mitigation of stress and negative effects of cognitive factors that are asserted to work against the democratic process?

We look at how brief interventions may have large potential in mitigating current threats to democratic processes that have a psychological origin.

This paper proposes trials with 3 separate interventions, to show possible preemptive mediators (you the reader) examples of what may be useful. First based on ‘compassionate communication’ (Rosenberg, 2015), then ‘coaching’, specifically ‘team coaching’ (Clutterbuck et al, 2019), which drives at a shared understanding of a common ‘vision’ as emphasized to be central for professional management by management gurus as Warren Bennis (Cummings, 2017), and thirdly ‘talking circles’ which are a methodology to foster shared understandings, empathy and growth in personal communication capabilities (Mehl-Madrona, 2007; Pranis, 2005).

The hypothesis is that these interventions will all have a favorable measurable effect decreasing the present ‘stressors’ and will help towards ‘cognitive motivation’ that is deemed productive for collaboration – the democratic process.

The narrative A. and communication technologies B. (the interventions) as described in more detail below will lead to decreased measures of those factors that can threaten the democratic process and increase the wellbeing and effectiveness of participants.

The context

‘Management’ in politics

‘Management’ in politics has been thought of as fracturing from different ideological basis (Clare, 2010) and is often showcased in a discussion based on a ‘dualistic symbolic classification’ (Forth, 2010) embedded in the paradigm of the left-right spectrum (White, 2010) now by some considered to be redundant or braking because of more intensive ‘fracturing’ with still more emphasis on ‘us vs. them’ (McCoy et al, 2018).

Would it not be great to apply the learning of management theory to politics?

Why not apply the learnings and theories regarding communication and mediation? Why not apply what works and take learnings from one field and move them to another?

A rigid view of politics as based on ideology rather than people and issues can be viewed as outdated and nonproductive. It can be also contrasted with a more ‘open minded’ (Kruglanski, 2004) focus on social interaction as exemplified in management capability or solution focus when based upon ideas and practice fostering ‘common wellbeing’; Carl Rogers and many others have shown how companies treating people as people make more money than those who are autocratic or worse (Rogers, 1977). Hence, allowing people to have different opinions not focusing on ‘ideology’ or talking to people as ‘ideology’ rather than humans can for instance greatly facilitate process solutions.

Common wellbeing and success bear relevance to values as correlated to ‘management style’ by the psychologist Abraham Maslow and management theorists (Ballard, 2006; Cummings,2017). It can be considered a bad management style to think that we can solve issues by labeling people and ‘trapping’ them in boxes continually based on ideas about ‘ideology’/’politics’ or ‘interests’ rather than allowing for a communicative process between humans to arrive at solutions.

There are examples of theories on motivation which we can relate to cognitive motivation (Kruglanski, 2004) and to the ‘democratic process’ as it has to take into account the coming together of groups of people and solution making that factors them in. Such focus or capability is emphasized in the works of Warren Bennis that has to do with management and leadership; the real running of things (Cummings, 2017). Also, the relevant work of Abraham Maslow (Ballard, 2006) who laid out a theory of behavioral motivation and values which he and others also extensively have connected to management theory and practice (Maslow & Stephens, 1998; Bridgman, Cummings & Ballard, 2018). Arie W. Kruglanski the social psychologist has done extensive work showcasing how cognitive motivation affects collaboration (Kriglanski, 2004). Highlighting for us the relevance of looking into such motivational factors in relation to the democratic processes as a process for solution collaboration i.e., getting things done, rather than as a game of what ‘ideology’ can be put up against what other ‘ideology’.

In effect, we can start looking at people and how they feel and communicate when we do no longer get overly hung upon labels regarding ideology. This can help us when we think about politics and deal with politics and allow us to apply our knowledge about communications from another context. Perhaps, if not taking it too far, the human tendency to label others based on ideology may be a trial at both learning and understanding but also of brushing the ‘others’ aside. In fact, it can be a trial of the psyche to mitigate fear by labeling others to ‘not have to’ listen to them or take them into consideration. Yet, this labeling is still a stable political theory and discussion.

Professional practice

Is it then possible that professional activity in politics can be thought of based on ‘professional management’ practices and solution focus i.e. utilizing the socio-psychological factors that are also relevant in business management? Rather than removing politics from people via thinking based on ideological fractions which may pose risks associated with polarization and other relevant factors?

Would more of a process view help us if the hypothesis is correct to introduce methods and narrative that can increase tolerance to the stressors modern democracy is facing? The stressors then being those present in what affects well-being of professionals working in politics and what threatens the democratic process itself based on common cognitive factors.

Aims for preemptive mediation?

Might it be good to prove the effects of preemptive mediation in connection to the modern scientific paradigm? Let us come to suggestions:

It would be wonderful to gather relevant quantitative data for a benchmark based on applicable methodology pertinent to psychology, and then introduce interventions in three separate undertakings or more [can be repeated] that will be embedded in the same ‘narrative’ that has to do with behavioral motivation and the values driving behavior; people need to hear of what is possible and find it interesting enough to act on.

It can be decided upon to introduce interventions at intervals to see if that strengthens perceived effects. Then we can keep up with developments through further follow-up testing. We will also run self-assessments for participants.

The interventions can be performed in more than a single country and in fact, the effects of any research would indeed benefit from such activity or could at minimum encourage it.

Will the interventions help safeguard and strengthen the democratic process based on the data we gather? What will the participants’ self-assessments reveal?

Ongoing quantitative fieldwork can be utilized. First in order to have benchmarks and then to check on effects.

Further on the quantitative work

It is possible to build measures on sliding scales for self-reports in relation to the ‘taxonomy of stressors’ brought out by Flanders et al. 2020 and work with relevant methods to get at more subconscious aspects that can influence wellbeing and work as the factors drawn out by Kruglanski, 2004 and those derived from the ideas of Greenberg et al, 1986.

For instance, there are numerous assessments to get at existential fears or ‘death anxiety’ that are derived from ‘Terror Management Theory’ (Iverach, Menzies & Menzies, 2014). We can possibly utilize such assessments along with others to get at underlying fears that may be more or totally subconscious.

Much used scales aimed to find out about peoples’ perhaps most salient fear include ‘The Death Anxiety Scale’ and ‘The Collet-Lester Fear of Death Scale’ or ‘The Multidimensional Fear of Death Scale’ (Iverach et al, 2014). In this, we can utilize a combination of assessment tools as we best see fit. Such measures have been combined in use with other assessments as the more general ‘Symptom Checklist-90-R (Iverach et al,2014), to estimate peoples’ psychological wellbeing. The thing is how this could be done with consideration and care for the people working in politics. Any approach regarding this necessitates people that have the appropriate education and skills which might be working with mediators on the issues. Such people may be organizational or political psychologists, statisticians, and others with the appropriate skills.

Factors

Factors pertaining to measurements can be built from the ‘taxonomy of stressors’ in political work (Flanders et al, 2020) and the ideas of Kruglanski and a ‘fear of death scale’. They can be expanded especially in light of ‘work in politics’, and collaboration (democratic process). These can be related to parameters on tolerance, empathy, solution focus [self-reporting], polarization, and measures on priorities regarding values. Are the values for instance those deemed helpful for collaboration across groups? Can there be values that rather lead to a shutdown in cognition on issues that cause ‘catastrophic anxiety’?

Can we aim to measure data that shows the level of stress/fear (Flanders et al, 2020) as we think it will be best defined in relation to relevant literature and research? We need to see how the interventions help mitigate the stressors and otherwise influence cognition in ways that support democratic processes.

Questions our gathered data will assumedly answer

Do participants gain strength to tolerate stressors? Will that help with tolerance towards others with different ideologies and views? Could collaboration become better (with less stress) and generate workable solutions faster or better?

Will the participants’ overall identified stressors be mitigated?

Will the primed solution focus based on specific ideas and methodologies be helpful and hence contribute to the strengthening of the democratic process?

Is this work all something valuable for society and the discipline of mediation? Especially can this be considered to be preemptive mediation?

Building a database

The approach can involve generating a statistically built reference or a database through this methodology via testing. Measures of ‘professional capability’ towards solution focus in politics can potentially be drawn up. In this way ‘professional management’ in politics as a concept and reality as seen in business management literature with relevance in psychology is highlighted with the view of strengthening the democratic process; via the chosen interventions that counter factors that work against it.

This may become an international database if circumstances will allow for such a venture.

The research and interventions connected to our hypothesis

First, we make “measurements” with the relevant quantitative methodology to have benchmarks to work with. What stressors and attitudes etc. that are relevant are measurable in the professional participants in politics?

Then we introduce three separate interventions (or more) for professionals in politics and follow up on their effects via further measurements to get at changes.

We begin each intervention with a narrative that embeds the intervention. The aim is to see how the narrative in connection with the intervention can shift peoples’ benchmarks.

A.

The basic intervention can be to present a narrative rooted in the ideas of Maslow (Maslow and Stephens, 1998) and Bennis (Bennis, 1993) on management especially as they are connected to the ideas of different management styles as exemplified in Maslow’s discussion on so-called management “x, y and z” where Maslow drew upon the work of other theorists. The ideas have to do with management’s view of people they work with or oversee and are connected to ideas about values and other factors affecting behavior. Theory x subscribes to that people need close supervision and are not to be trusted, theory y subscribes that a climate of trust is essential for effective work and can be fostered. Theory z subscribes that people can manage with wellbeing and psychological blossoming in mind (Hoffman, 1989). We can theorize about how such values also have a bearing on collaboration in light of the work of Kruglanski.

Why introduce narrative?

The brain and cognition are developed in relation to the senses but also from stories wherewith humans generate structure, meaning, and memories (Mehl-Madrona & Mainguy, 2015). Stories or narratives provide for context, and can alleviate stressors and mitigate threat; they do this in part by shifting focus or modulating awareness of possibilities (Mehl-Madrona et al, 2015). Can the narrative not affect cognitive motivation (Kruglanski, 2004)?

The idea is that the narrative will prime participants towards aiming for z management style behaviors based on B-values (Hoffman 1989; Maslow & Stephens, 1998) and decrease parameters that are deemed counterproductive to democratic processes and solution focus. We can measure the effects of narrative in relation to the experiential impact of each intervention. Does the narrative help with learning and shifting behavior towards more effective communication styles?

Can this then be seen as a part of preemptive mediation?

Is it in your view (the reader’s) possible to enlarge views on mediation to allow for creative approaches based on a preemptive framework? Can you be further empowered to help counter current existential dangers?

Can processes be highlighted rather than content to open people to learnings that mitigate stress and foster better communication?

B.

‘Communication technologies’

With the same narrative mentioned (A) as a starting point, three separate research projects can be undertaken.

The research idea presented here for inspiration is that the stated difficulties may be mitigated in part in the lives of individual participants (people working in politics) via rather simple interventions. Those foster the utilization of technicalities in communication and collaboration and are based on three distinct but potentially supportive methodologies (looking at process rather than content). These ‘techniques’ have grown out of humanistic psychology, the human potential movement, and management theory and practice (see Anderson 1983, and Bennis 1993 on historical emergence). The ‘techniques’ would be introduced in connection to a narrative as mentioned above which is provided for appropriate context and engagement.

The tools

The first recommended ‘communication technology’ is based on a process inducing “empathy”, “stating observations” and “making clear requests” (Rosenberg, 2015). The process is put forth to induce understanding and feeling for any other human being by thinking from ‘needs’. It is to foster a sense of security and solution focus and effective collaboration.

The second ‘technology’ is a coaching methodology that highlights solution focus both regarding individuals and teams; smaller groups with a mutual vision (Clutterbuck et al, 2019). The ‘vision’ and communication style are to foster clarity and mitigate ‘uncertainty’ and stressors.

The third ‘technology’ is ‘talking circles’ which help to slow down communication for deeper shared understandings and definitions and group cohesion or mediation between different actors. The methodology can also be used at faster pace for organized meetings (Mehl-Madrona, 2007; Pranis, 2005).

Discussion

Research in biological psychiatry has indicated that learning can mitigate the influence of anxiety/pressure upon choice i.e. help with decisions and professional functioning (Hartley and Phelps, 2012).

The hypothesis here is that narrative A. and communication technologies B. will lead to decreased measures of those factors that can threaten the democratic process and increase the well-being and effectiveness of participants.

Peer-reviewed articles can be published in relevant professional journals depicting this journey based on fitting quantitative research parameters. It is a wonderful thought to expand the horizons of mediation and have a sense of wonder for the possible avenues of preemptive mediation!

Empathy

Empathy assumes the reality of the stressors involved in political work, noting that they may become so much as to impacting cognition negatively and solution making as well as collaboration with other people: especially if the others are in some way considered “outsiders” or “threatening” (Fiske, 2004; Kruglanski, 2004; LeShan, 1996). The understanding that narrative matters in relation to biology is highlighted here (Mehl-Madrona & Minguy, 2015). Both to embed the ‘technologies’ (giving rationale) and as the narrative connects to peoples’ need to maintain a gestalt or a world view – a coherence in the personal psyche (LeShan, 1996), a self-consistency (Lecky, 1973), and has to do with the cognitive motivation that affects collaboration (Kruglanski, 2004).

What happens when ‘preemptive mediators’ (individuals or institutions) will have gotten people professionally participating in politics involved? Will participants benefit from accessing an enabling narrative that connects to “communicative technologies” that support and strengthen the process; here the democratic one?

Why do I write this?

I have an MSc. degree in Economics and Business Administration with a specialization in International Marketing (communication) and Management from the Department of Management, Politics, and Philosophy of CBS Denmark. This education opened my eyes to the socio-psychological factors of management. I entered politics in 2013 and ran 3rd in municipal elections in 2014 on behalf of a then-new political party; even a ‘radical challenger party’ (Kriesi, 2020). At the time, the party had around 3,5% in polls. A year after I started, I was elected the Chairman of the Executive Board of the party nationwide. I, along with a few people had the main influence on the party’s inner structure and work divisions both at the time and shaping it towards the future as the party was new.

The party received 14,5% in the Parliamentary elections in 2016 making it one of the few European ‘radical challenger parties’ to survive its first years and enter more mainstream national politics.

I have applied some of the proposed B. solutions in politics with observable effects. Most notably did ‘talking circles’ take hold both in a slow and fast format, they very much helped mitigate serious conflict and fostered the democratic process for people with different ideologies and opinions. The first two methods mentioned helped with awareness and willingness to consider personal motivation in collaboration and democratic work. The main difficulties encountered in collaboration seemed to me to be very connected to the psyche of people. Some of the structures and methods that I participated in introducing when engaged in politics I am convinced have helped the said party survive; it still being an active force in the Icelandic Parliament.

My very interesting experience in politics leads me to believe that the democratic process is seriously disrupted by psychological factors connected to fears as those mentioned in this paper. I decided to remove myself from politics and learn more about mediation because of this fact. In 2017 I moderated discussion at a “Congress on Iceland’s Democracy” at Berkley Law in California where I presented many of the ideas connected to what is discussed herein as discussion leads. The leads were well received and deemed by the experts present.

I believe that the issues at hand are important and that research and preemptive mediation can help work towards mitigating the effects of unhealthy radicalization, polarization, and fear in politics. I the author of this paper would be very interested in hearing from people if and when these ideas stimulate action, projects, and generate results.

SUMMARY *

The proposal rests on a chain of reasoning that can be stated compactly. Political work carries documented and unusually high stress. Stress narrows cognition, producing the need for premature closure and the exclusion of those who complicate a settled view. That narrowing appears in political behaviour as polarisation and as the refusal to engage with inconvenient information. If the cognitive effects can be reduced, the political ones should diminish with them. The author therefore locates the intervention not at the level of institutions or of public opinion, but at the level of the individual professional, and proposes three established communication practices as the instruments, framed by a narrative drawn from management theory to make them intelligible to the people they are offered to.

CONCLUSION

Preemptive mediation as discussed here is offered as an encouragement rather than as a finished programme. The hypothesis is that narrative and communication technologies can lead to decreased measures of those factors that threaten the democratic process and increase the wellbeing and effectiveness of participants, and it is put forward so that mediators and institutions may test it, refine it, and report what they find.

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The proposal deserves to be taken seriously and it is at present a hypothesis rather than a finding, which the author acknowledges. What would move it forward is greater precision about design, and the author’s own experience points to where that precision is most needed.

Access is the first difficulty and the one most likely to defeat the project before it begins. Politicians are among the hardest professional groups to reach with anything resembling personal development, because participation risks being read as an admission of weakness by opponents and by the press. Any programme therefore needs a route in that carries no such cost. Parliamentary staff associations, cross party groups on wellbeing, induction programmes for newly elected members and the training arrangements of individual parties are the plausible entry points, and confidentiality is not a courtesy here but the condition of participation. Beginning with new entrants is worth particular attention, since habits form early and the newly elected have not yet acquired the positions they will later feel obliged to defend.

The measurement plan needs narrowing rather than broadening. Instruments derived from terror management theory measure something real, but administering death anxiety scales to serving politicians would be difficult to explain and easy to caricature. A study designed around the taxonomy of political stressors, together with established measures of need for closure and of affective polarisation, would be more defensible and more likely to be permitted. Simple behavioural indicators, whether cross party contact increases, whether committee work reaches agreement more often, are less elegant than psychometrics and considerably more persuasive to the institutions being asked to host the work.

The author’s account of the Icelandic party is the most valuable element in the paper and it is presented too briefly. A documented case, describing what was introduced, in what sequence, what resistance arose and what changed, would be worth more to practitioners than the research design that surrounds it, because it is evidence that the approach has been applied at all. Written up carefully, including where it did not work, it would give the hypothesis something it currently lacks, which is a demonstration.

Two cautions belong here as well. Reframing political disagreement as a problem of cognition and stress carries a risk the paper should address explicitly: some political conflict is not a communication failure but a genuine clash of interests and values, and treating it as psychological pathology would be both wrong and, if attempted, resented. The techniques proposed improve how disagreement is conducted; they do not dissolve the disagreement, and they should not be presented as though they might. And the boundary with therapy needs stating plainly, since instruments measuring existential anxiety and interventions addressing fear approach clinical territory. What is offered here is professional communication training, delivered by mediators and coaches, with referral pathways available where something more is needed.

Finally, the paper’s underlying claim is worth restating because it is the strongest thing in it. Mediation is almost always summoned after positions have hardened, when the work is correspondingly harder and the range of possible outcomes correspondingly narrower. A profession that intervened earlier, in the conditions under which decisions are made rather than in the disputes that result, would be doing something for which no other discipline is well placed. That case does not depend on any particular intervention succeeding, and it deserves the research the author calls for.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

REFERENCES

Books

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Cummings T.G. (2017) Warren G. Bennis: Generous Company. In: Szabla D., Pasmore W., Barnes M., Gipson A. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Organizational Change Thinkers. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49820-1_2-1

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Journal articles

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Beck, A. T. (2019). A 60-Year Evolution of Cognitive Theory and Therapy. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 14(1), 16–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691618804187

Bridgman, T., Cummings, S. & Ballard, J. (2018). Who Built Maslow’s Pyramid? A History of the Creation of Management Studies’ Most Famous Symbol and Its Implications for Management Education. Academy of Management Learning and Education, The. 10.5465/amle.2017.0351.

Butzlaff, F & Messinger-Zimmer, S. (2020) Undermining or defending democracy? The consequences of distrust for democratic attitudes and participation, Critical Policy Studies, 14:3, 249-266, DOI: 10.1080/19460171.2019.1584120

Clare, J. (2010). Ideological Fractionalization and the International Conflict Behavior of Parliamentary Democracies. International Studies Quarterly, 54(4), 965-987. Retrieved April 5, 2021, from http://www.jstor.org/stable/40931150

Flinders, M., Weinberg, A., Weinberg, J., Geddes, M, Kwiatkowski, R.(2020), Governing under Pressure? The Mental Wellbeing of Politicians, Parliamentary Affairs, 73/2, 253-273 https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsy046

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French, J. A., Smith, K. B., Alford, J. R., Guck, A., Birnie, A. K., & Hibbing, J. R. (2014). Cortisol and politics: Variance in voting behavior is predicted by baseline cortisol levels. Physiology & behavior, 133, 61–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physbeh.2014.05.004

Harris, Emma & Samuel, Victoria. (2020). Acceptance and Commitment Therapy: A Systematic Literature Review of Prevention and Intervention Programs for Mental Health Difficulties in Children and Young People. Journal of Cognitive Psychotherapy. 34. 280-305. 10.1891/JCPSY-D-20-00001.

Hartley, C. A., & Phelps, E. A. (2012). Anxiety and decision-making. Biological psychiatry, 72(2), 113–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2011.12.027

Iverach, L., Menzies, R.G., Menzies, R.E., (2014), Death anxiety and its role in psychopathology: Reviewing the status of a transdiagnostic construct, Clinical Psychology Review, 34/7, 580-593, ISSN 0272-7358, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpr.2014.09.002

Kriesi, H. (2020) Is There a Crisis of Democracy in Europe?. Polit Vierteljahresschr 61, 237–260 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615-020-00231-9

Lerner, J.S., Li, Y., Valdesolo, P. & Kassam, K.S., (2015) Emotion and Decision Making, Annual Review of Psychology, 66:1, 799-823

Loughlin, M. (2019) The Contemporary Crisis of Constitutional Democracy, Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 39 (2), 435–454, https://doi.org/10.1093/ojls/gqz005

McCoy, J., Tahmina, R. & Murat, S. (2018). Polarization and the Global Crisis of Democracy: Common Patterns, Dynamics, and Pernicious Consequences for Democratic Polities. American Behavioral Scientist. 62. 16-42. DOI:10.1177/0002764218759576

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Industry and other reports & conference papers

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French, J.A., Smith, K.B., Guck, A., Alford, J.A., Hibbing, J.R. (2011), The Stress of Politics: Endocrinology and Voter Participation, Paper prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the International Society for Political Psychology, Istanbul. July 2011.

Supplementary references added by the WMO Editorial Team

Fisher, R., & Shapiro, D. (2005). Beyond Reason: Using Emotions as You Negotiate. Viking, New York.

Iyengar, S. et al. (2019). The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science, 22, 129 to 146.

Fishkin, J. S. (2018). Democracy When the People Are Thinking: Revitalizing Our Politics Through Public Deliberation. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

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Inter Parliamentary Union, guidance and programmes on the working conditions and wellbeing of members of parliament, Geneva.

Berghof Foundation, handbooks on dialogue and process facilitation, Berlin.

Mediation: crisis, postmodern culture and decision making

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on mediation as a ‘preemptive discipline’ by showing forth relevant theories and research, also that from other disciplines namely psychology and business studies in relation to current happenings as derived from international media. In this, the paper is contemporary descriptive using a conflict that is very present in modern discussion: The sustainability of nature is contrasted with business and political decision-making that threatens life on the planet. The paper is factual while in the combination of its elements its writing is creative exploration; giving the reader an opportunity to reflect on current issues and pertaining psychological factors. The intention is to strengthen the reader and open up a vista that showcases the increased relevance of mediation as a ‘problem-solving process’ that can be applied by parties preemptively. It is highlighted how ethics are connected to survival and the ability to reflect on the consequences of decisions, and also how that refection can be difficult in light of modern culture as defined by ‘postmodernism’ and especially regarding serious issues because of normal human protection mechanisms as a denial that can lead to or be furthered by anxieties that can readily present themselves. The paper concludes that ‘otherwise normal’ psychological defense mechanisms get in the way of solving matters when they pertain to issues classifiable as ‘radical evil’ and that mediation as a preemptive problem-solving process can help reinstall hope, will surface information, and help lead to solutions in the face of such issues. Further research on mediation as a preemptive process is encouraged as well as an application by decision-makers.

KEYWORDS *

Preemptive mediation, radical evil, catastrophic anxiety, denial, postmodernism, metamodernism, ethical decision making, environmental destruction, corporate responsibility, data aggregation, burnout, positive psychology

INTRODUCTION

In looking at the contrast of business and political decisions that can be dangerous for people and the planet (conflict) we do not dive into specific situations or decisions – we rather bring up a context for increased understanding. We then relate this context to ethics in current times, psychological factors, and the applicability of mediation as one of the preemptive tools we have to avoid unsound decisions and destruction.

This article is written from the standpoint of mediation practice, bringing increased awareness regarding avenues of thought and practice and thus in itself is an act that can strengthen the reader – and hence is preemptive mediation in action.

Mankind and nature

Nature is! People apply various models of thought regarding interaction with nature and ownership[1]. Mankind exploits the planet in a previously unknown way ignoring that it is embedded in nature[2].

The flowing circular logic of nature has not been honored. The production and manufacture of mankind destroys natural life cycles and creates things that cannot be broken down in nature and poison humanity. This has been especially pointed out by Dr. Leyla Acaroglu[3] and others promoting the concept of “The Circular Economy”[4].

Companies in addition to having at times been instruments of such destruction regularly behave in ways that necessitate responses involving those of “Stolen Assets Recovery” as nations have “customarily” been defrauded of their assets, natural resources, or utility rights through bribery, theft, and other corruption – “theft of public assets is a development problem of the greatest magnitude”[5]. That problem also includes manifold aspects of political destabilization and war[6].

MAIN CORPUS

These matters also touch domestic situations in ‘developed nations’

The issues involved leave none immune they are fully relevant to developed nations and their citizens. Even the nations viewed as role models regarding governance; which are countries that are high on all development indexes; structural and other parameters.

Why are we concerned?

Modern information technology has greatly improved the ability of populations to expose corruption and helps public scrutiny in numerous ways. It is not doable to hide ownership structures, money flow, or personal relations in ways that were possible before the dawn of the digital age.[7] The famous ‘Panama papers’ showcase this.

Perhaps this fact is one of the many reasons why governments are aiming to control information that is online. There can also possibly be legitimate reasons to do so and even there are current thoughts of cyber warfare and cybersecurity which the general public may not be thinking much on[8]. Yet, there are many who are highly critical of government control of the Internet as it reminds of how states have aimed to control traditional media and the history of censorship in the world with relevant issues of danger. Where for instance the “state muted some political voices while amplifying others”[9]. Plenty of discussions is still found on these issues online, for instance at the Washington Post, as in the article: “The U.N. passed a Russia-backed cybercrime resolution. That’s not good news for Internet freedom”.

„The resolution creates a drafting group to create terms of reference for a global “cybercrime” treaty. But the cybercrimes of primary concern here aren’t hacking attacks, privacy violations or identity thefts. Instead, this treaty is intended to create international law that would make it easier for countries to cooperate to repress political dissent.”[10]

There is a paradox in that the Internet opens up endless avenues for information, wherein theory and actuality technology makes it more difficult to control information flow, while simultaneously governments and corporations are heavily involved in setting up methods of surveillance and even censorship. Many of which work quite robustly. [11] The current case in point is that major corporations have decided to warn the public and authorities against the use of their ‘facial recognition software’.[12]

A Venezuelan editor is quoted in the Atlantic as saying regarding the current dangers of ‘state’ or other ‘big player’ censorship:

“This is not your classic censorship, where they put a soldier in the door of the newspaper and assault the journalists,” Calzadilla told us. “Instead, they buy up the newspaper, they sue the reporters and drag them into court, they eavesdrop on your phone and email communications, and then broadcast them on state television. This is censorship for the 21st century.”[13]

The digital age as a torch?

Possibly it is this modern ability that comes from the digital age that has forced us who live in parts of the world once considered corruption-free to seriously reconsider. It appears crystal clear that some agents both involved in government and business in developed nations have both acted in ways that can be considered ‘theft of public assets” or ‘utilizing of public offices’ to gain undue access or transferal of ownership regarding resources both within their own countries as well as those that have been considered ‘less developed’ – even when they have been supposed to ‘be helping them’. Rebecca Gordon writes an article published in Le Monde diplomatique that shocks the reader, which should already have awareness, into realizing that some of these most serious things have been occurring in the U.S.A. [14]

Other cases appear in relation to Icelandic fishing quotas that have made certain individuals very wealthy after the quotas could be commoditized; bringing all sorts of questions regarding fair process in politics in relation to business and law in Iceland as well as how the systems of the country can be funded if income and profit of resources are heavily streaming towards few people[15]; even flowing to offshore accounts in stupendous amounts[16]. To further shame on shame an Icelandic company has recently been involved in a very serious scandal involving Namibia and its fishing industry and fishing quota systems[17]. The industry and system having been put in place through Icelandic development help. Do other successes justify such things?

Insights?

After the bank system collapse that happened in Iceland in 2008 foreign investigative journalists entered the country, one of them was Michael Hudson who in April 2009 wrote an article titled “Will Iceland be Handed Over to a New Gang of Kleptocrats?”[18]. Little would he have known that the only counter candidate to the sitting Icelandic President in 2020 would be running up for elections almost with the sole aim of being able to hinder (as a security valve that could refer parliament decisions to national elections) what he considers ‘dangerous privatization and sales’ of government assets including among other possibilities assets in land, energy, and banking all which seem to be underway. The presidential candidate has stated that he fears the EU has turned towards a type of asset forfeiture of natural resources for big business rather than taking care of citizens of nations. He fears that Icelandic politicians are opting for selling the ‘milk cows’ of the nation[19].

Is it well that corporations or people sell what does not belong to them?

Is it acceptable practice to apply various legal or illegal pressures on governments to create partial legislation or other dependencies that may promote possibly “unfair legal ownership”?

“Since colonial times, the law has provided a means to legitimize the appropriation of land and resources [] commercial investments can create economic opportunities for national elites in government or business [] legalization that [] vests resources with the state enables those who control state institutions to advance their own development”[20].

Certain avenues of thought or teaching may be created as justification for such robberies by those powerful enough to apply them. The Winner of the 2010 Gerald L. Young Book Award – “The Ecological Rift: Capitalism’s War on the Earth” written by John Bellamy Foster, Brett Clark, and Richard York, criticizes ideologies and teachings (as neo-classical economics) for too often being such tools. [21]

Is it alright to point out problems or dangers?

There can be an inherent problem in pointing out “bad” behavior or “misdeeds” as such discriminating action although necessary can easily polarize people. Jennifer Kunst, Ph.D. shows well how unproductive such polarization is in a short informative article in Psychology Today in 2011[22]. One of the difficulties of academia is that theories have to be legitimized and in that legitimization, there is always pointing to the past[23] as in the case of the above-mentioned work that has Marxist connections and then in its very nature can appear anti-freedom, anti-market, anti-west due to former polarization, situations, and comprehensible fears. Ideas often fall into groupings that can have implied meaning as embedded opposition to other ways of thinking and by context people associated with that thought. Potentially at times, purposed solutions are added fuel for polarization and conflict rather than helpful as intended. It is easy getting people stuck in the trenches when touching upon the contextual meaning or actual power dynamics.

“As Foster et al. point out, one of the most troubling issues in neoclassical economics, and similarly in modern accounting standards, is the undervaluation of the natural environment and the corresponding ability to underexpense its degradation. This is the externalization problem; i.e., the ecological costs of private activity are accrued to the public, or at best, to the state for cleanup.”[24]

Enmity is counterproductive

“Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that we have to erect the ramparts of peace… Resolving conflicts nonviolently is one of the most urgent tasks of our modern era.”[25]

The U.N. has pointed out that there are eight areas of focus that can be pillars in ‘a culture of peace’. Note the 7th point in light of education and the Internet. We can gather that a ‘culture of peace’ would constructively utilize conflict towards peaceful living[26].

Understanding, tolerance and solidarity

Culture of peace through education

Sustainable economic and social development

Respect for all human rights

Equality between women and men

Democratic participation

Participatory communication and the free flow of information and knowledge

International peace and security (including disarmament)[27]

As enmity is counterproductive we seek understanding based on the first premise of ‘a culture for peace’.

Understanding

We can look at some of the psychological factors involved in the clashes between sound decisions and culture and misuse of nature and resources. There are real psychological and derived health dangers. We can ponder how mediation as a process can matter regarding all these possible conflicts between actors in what regards decisions that affect humanity and the planet.

The U.S. Institute for Peace points out how conflict is a normal part of life and neutral in itself. What matters is the skills we have to bear in the conflicts.

„Conflict is neither intrinsically negative nor positive. In fact, how it plays out is determined entirely by how it is handled—by the attitudes and skills of those involved. Negative assumptions may cause us to try to avoid conflict, or they may lead us to become instantly combative, unwilling or unable to see any possibility of a constructive outcome….. Conflict is not only inevitable, it is essential…[and]…can be managed without violence”[28].

How can it be – that it is often too hard for people to allow awareness of difficulties; and even more so to think about or solve them?

Apart from power competition, rivalry, the threat of exclusion or violence, and actual violence, there are also psychological reasons connected to these issues.

The American Psychologist and Ph.D. in Human Development Studies Lawrence LeShan wrote the book “An Ethic for the Age of Space: A Touchstone for Conduct Among the Stars”. There he addresses the concept of ‘radical evil’ arriving from Immanuel Kant’s essay “Religion Within the Limits of Reason Alone” found in Kant’s theory of ethics. That ‘radical evil’ can be thought of in terms of something considered so terrible that it overwhelms our ability to think about it in our ‘normative frame of reference’.

‘Radical evil’ contradicts all of our inborn psychological safety mechanisms, our psychological and emotional survival systems, and our sense of a functioning self.[29]These systems have been described in books and theories on ‘sense of self’ as Herman Kagan’s “The Psychological Immune system: A New Look at Protection and Survival”[30] or Barbanell’s “Removing the Mask of Kindness: Diagnosis and Treatment of the Caretaker Personality Disorder”.[31]They all point to how awareness and logical processes work in relation to people’s sense of self, security, and emotions.

It requires a lot of us to face reality

It requires training and personal maturity to be able to face prevailing realities as matters that can be classified as ‘radical evil’ are common. For all of us ‘radical evil’ is a great challenge to face in our awareness or perception.

Issues that can be considered ‘radically evil’ are monumentally threatening. Considering ‘radical evil’ can literally break people’s psychological functioning[32].

Topics of known ‘radical evil’ can be for instance: Possible nuclear annihilation or other catastrophic environmental disasters whether instantaneous or gradually encroaching, issues of corruption and crime where there is a high threat of violence, or social exclusion, and other similar difficult topics. Also, such ‘radical evil’ can speak of monstrous acts of inhuman cruelties as for instance shown in writings about mob behavior (crowd psychology)[33] and applied bureaucratic war crime behavior as in the case written about by Hannah Arendt on Eichmann in Jerusalem[34].

According to LeShan the realities or stories of ‘radical evil’ in human minds fit no category, ‘no reality’ exempt “perhaps in one of complete chaos or one run by the devil. But these are not universes that human beings can live in and survive as human”[35].

LeShan further points out that “we must live in an ordered universe or we have no basis for rules for our perceptions, feelings, belief and actions. Radical evil destroys the order of the cosmos and threatens us with living in chaos.” He further writes “how do we human beings behave in the presence of radical evil? Our minds find it very hard to deal with and skitter away from perceiving, accepting or remembering it”.

Catastrophic Anxiety

LeShan describes that such problems as those that can be classified as ‘radical evil’ can cause what in psychiatry may be labeled ‘Catastrophic Anxiety’. ‘Catastrophic Anxiety´ directly attacks people’s ‘sense of self’ and their world is immediately threatened – indirectly but actually their ‘very life’ is.[36]

Issues that awaken such responses make us possibly derailed and explain why we repeatedly avoid the ‘hard issues’ and often apply ‘all our power of denial’ to avoid the impact of the perception as the threat to our personality and sense of reality and to our ability to function in the world is real and must be dealt with[37].

Denial is effective

LeShan points to that one of the seeming ‘best’ ways to deal with such issues is to deny the reality of a problem, and to do nothing about it as that strengthens the feeling that there is no real problem!

Consider how serious this is, how self-defeating these psychological protection mechanisms can be when misapplied. What can they imply if they are part of normal behavior for human beings and groups of people?

People can be in denial together. How long has it taken people groups at times to admit to serious threats and move from territories when needing to leave all possessions behind? These very same psychological protection mechanisms as denial can be perfectly healthy in everyday life as seen in the work of Herman Kagan, and can be useful in processes as a stage for instance when dealing with loss and grief.

Do we participate in ‘radical evil’?

LeShan further explains that people can be in complete denial when engaging in ‘radical evil’ particularly when they through the organization can be ‘concerned about doing a good job’, especially if from a distance.

Examples of such actions can be nuclear testing. We easily see nowadays how nuclear testing has been unwise as with the case of France when they ‘found paradise’ and decided to do nuclear testing.[38] The French for long after aimed at a cover-up regarding environmental destruction and ongoing deaths of people.[39] Regrettably such ‘radically evil’ cases of unwise behavior are many and involve most nations.

Lawrence LeShan Ph.D. is pointing out that corporate and other mechanisms that lead to the destruction of the human species are in fact ‘radical evil’ even if the actors have cognizant dissonance about them as when reaping miscalculated profits or doing nuclear testing.

Facing such issues can bring mob action (think crowd psychology) against those who wish to speak of them through “the public’s passionate rejection of any warning which brings out people’s repressed fears and compels them to face if even for an instant, the hideous and threatening reality around them”[40].

Do we avoid the threat of death through sophistry and ‘normalization’?

LeShan shows that we can ward off facing realities regarding mayhem, destruction, and death even to the point of ‘normalizing them’; making them seem absolutely insignificant and ordinary. This fits with the theories of Ernest Becker Ph.D. made famous in the book ‘The Denial of Death'[41]. In that work, Becker points to our need for controlling existential anxieties so that we can function and thus that we humans conspire to keep ‘death unconscious’. Followingly the paradox that we often fight ‘evil’ in ways that bring more evil into the world (as can be argued regarding nuclear testing) becomes a reality to deal with!

We are starved for truth and need courage

According to acting teacher Josh Pais we the people of the present civilization are starved for truth and authenticity which we find subconsciously spellbinding as opposed to the “ordinary” sophistry and avoidance. He states “we must be very clear that people today are hungry for truth. We, humans, are constantly assessing all information to see if it is truthful.”[42]

Pais’s thought is in line with the thinking of modern marketing gurus as James Gilmore and Joseph Pine II[43] which have found that the mechanics of sophistry are not a workable one-fits-all solution, that there is no panacea for lack of authenticity. They emphasized as early as 2007 that authenticity is the way to go; ‘that at least one has to appear genuine[44].

So does fake make it?

The argument is that authenticity can still be tricky just like human memory for instance. One way of seeing things is that ‘anything is human creation anyway and because of that “fake”[45]. This is postmodern reasoning – that is allowing for a plurality of views on what is moral, right, and true[46]. Lawrence LeShan Ph.D. would argue that such plurality is problematic and at times part of the human denial mechanisms as when the human species is endangered it is not a question of personal views but absolute realities[47].

The work of Gilmore and Pine II tracks the development of consumeristic society through its developmental stages towards what they perceive now to be the ‘Experience Economy'[48]. The experience economy implies that business has to provide sense stimuli in line with traditional entertainment industries as the theater to engage people’s need for something that lifts them out of the mundane. Could the ‘experience economy’ perhaps be part of an array of cultural behavior to help to avoid ‘catastrophic anxieties’ or thoughts on death or working on tasks that necessitate facing ‘radical evil’ to find solutions?

The experience economy can almost be seen as catering to people’s thirst for alternative realities or at least transformative experiences that may be contrasted with other living experiences[49]. Is shopping at times part of denial?

Towards solutions: Science of good decisions?

Morals and ethics in the relationship of business and people to nature

Ethical analysis – what is it? How can it be performed? Is it possible at all when people have different outlooks, priorities, and value reasoning? If so can survival be a common-sense factor?

Can we apply a definition similar to this one?

Ethical analysis: ‘A systematic approach to decision making aiming for outcomes that apply to the wellbeing of as many as possible and positive survival outcomes.’

Normally ethical analysis is defined as a systematic approach to moral decisions. There is however a problem in postmodern society regarding the word “moral” and “morals” as they seem to be viewed in such a way as that any result can be admitted based on that the reasoning is thought to be agreeable at any given time.[50]

Multiple ethical viewpoints and systems exist alongside impersonal ideologies as that “the market”. Simultaneously people and science are to be “objective” indicating that people can lose trust in their own experience and knowledge. This reasoning has been described in the work of José Ortega y Gasset regarding the dangers of people losing a sense of self, wisdom, and agency because of factors as stricter role specializations developing in society. The danger of the “specialist not knowing the inner philosophy (logic – conceptual history) of the science he cultivates, he is much more radically ignorant of the historical conditions requisite for its continuation”[51]. The specialists could in such a way lose sight of the whole and work in destructive ways even without at times realizing it. Gasset’s point bears resemblance to the present critique of modern man being divorced from an understanding of nature. Meaning that a narrow knowledge or interest can become inherently destructive if turning to myopia or lack of concern for others and surroundings.

What then?

Is every man left for him or herself in defining their construct of reality and parameters of existence? Can we not trust specialists for readymade views, feelings, and outlooks?

Do we not know whether to look to church or state, our own backyard, or to try the newest ‘new age course’ in the law of attraction to bolster our moral compass or decision-making ability?

How much experience, reflection and time do it take to develop one’s views so that they work well for oneself in relation to existence and survival outcomes?

Does modern life risk ambivalence, apathy, or nihilism because of the vast availability of information?

Are ideas and ideologies no longer connected to the practicalities of living as a human being?

How can we face the issues and think of decisions?

We and the others

There is the discussion of subjectivity and objectivity[52] that pertains both to modern physics, consciousness research, theories of the brain, and value systems and morals.

Quantum mechanics point to that all seems to be subjective or at minimum, the science for any type of true objectivity is very inconclusive.[53]

Consciousness studies also importantly reverse the problem of subjective and objective perception, thinking, and reasoning: They show forth how it has been important that humans have developed to have the capacity for ‘objective’ reasoning or even ‘objectification’ – this may come in line with the ability to utilize tools for various purposes:

“the brain’s most adaptive property: its capacity to produce states of objectivity. It is proposed that this capacity relies on multiple sensorimotor networks for internally representing objects and their properties in terms of expectancies, as well as on motivational and motor mechanisms involved in exploration, play, and care for vulnerable living and non-living objects”.[54]

Thus considering something as ‘objective’ or reality as somehow objective may be an approximation for practicality in applying oneself.

Obviously, this notion too is an oversimplification. While it connects to that humans are specially endowed to reason about the future being able to sense ’cause and effect’.

Ethics and future-orientated cognition, a human ability

Future-orientated cognition has often been thought of as a uniquely human ability – that is the ability to be creative and act in the present with regard to the future.

That future-orientated cognition is a uniquely human ability is contested while it is considered rather obvious that humans are especially well endowed in the area.[55]This ability enables us to reflect on the possible consequences of our actions and be involved in ethical or other result-oriented thought.

Would we prefer a chocolate cake with a lot of salt or cream? Do we feel the ability of future-orientated cognition working in us when we think about that? Another question – would it be better to serve our guests such a cake with a thick crust of salt as fish is sometimes presented in or with cream?

We can keep playing with this ability to see how it works for us – it even generates physical reactions that are immediate to our future imagined scenario.

The brain

Actually most often in rest the ‘brain’ – ‘time travels’; imagining lightning fast. We can jump from one thing to another back and forth. Disciplined thought takes focus. [56]

The brain is shaped by the stories we tell, the meanings we hold, and our relations captured in stories or explained through them. Brain activity is also embedded in the stories we tell and are told and responsive regarding what is going on in our environment.[57] How we habitually talk about ourselves, are shaped in conversation, and think of ourselves influences our action potentials: also the moral ones[58].

We are influenced by what we are in relation with, the reactions and meaning generation and stories of others and even simple things as what is going on in the immediate environment; as everyday stressors and stimuli.

Think of if we are walking past a book store and thinking about something else but ‘accidentally’ read the keel of one of the books and start thinking ‘War and Peace’, or we notice a store window and see something we like is on sale. Or we meet an old friend when not expected. These examples are some that show embeddedness in our environment even nature itself. Research, even brain/neuroscience research, has shown that living context as rural or urban (nature – context), as well as other contextual factors, have an effect on how people apply morals[59].

If we are too stricken by the possibility of ‘Catastrophic Anxiety’ when ‘radical evil’ comes up the conversation is not going far, even the thought might be neutralized with denial.

Do we have a science of morals and ethics so that we can be objective in decision making and be spared having to feel about things in a subjective (personal) way?

Subjective or objective morality?

Morals are considered the personal basis of ethical reasoning[60]. It has been argued that morality can never be objective as it is based on persons and their reasoning, or because it can not be universal as a system – one size fits all.[61]It has also been argued that morality is objective as ‘most people’ would infer similarly about some basic ethical issues. Eric Dietrich Ph.D. argues that morality is objective as ‘harm’ is grounded in facts. Where there is intentional harm there is immorality.[62]

Wasted arguments and idle mental logistics?

Is it still not misplacement of ideas and ideologies to think that we can be subjective about survival? Does a bullet kill or not?

Is subjective the same as personal? And then objective same as interpersonal or even impersonal?

Catherine Wilson Ph.D. in Philosophy discusses how to approach morals based on science in an article named “The Scientific Perspective on Moral Objectivity”. There she shows very clearly how “the potential objectivity of moral beliefs can be understood within a naturalistic framework by considering moral truth as the outcome of a diachronic process of inquiry”[63]. That is similarly how we understand scientific truth – as supposedly the best and most verifiable we have got so far as a result of our common human inquiry.

In this way, Catherine Wilson Ph.D. is showing us the folly of halting ethical reasoning or inquiry by dualistic arguments for or against subjectivism or objectivity. Focusing instead on what can be an enforceable and practical solution; not pointing to simplistic self-selection which would be a part of the reasoning for more absolute subjectivity. Her work is based on affirming the role of science in bringing forth solutions that are workable and closer to a real realm of objectivity. She writes:

“The naturalistic approach to metaethics is sometimes identified with a supervenience theory relating moral properties to underlying descriptive properties, thereby securing the possibility of objective knowledge in morality as in chemistry. I reject this approach along with the purely anthropological approach which leads to an objectionable form of relativism. There is no single method for arriving at moral objectivity any more than there is a single method that has taken us from alchemy to modern chemistry. Rather, there is an ensemble of (cognitive) instruments, techniques, experiments and observations that contribute to eliminating moral error, delivering what we are entitled to call greater objectivity”.[64]

Where can we find the power to look at issues and make decisions that take reality into account?

Our sense of self in relation to initiative, responsibility, and ethics – narrative matters

An article in the Guardian indicates that some people opt for feeling insignificant instead of feeling pressured by the realities of their environment![65]

Abundant information[66] and all sorts of “requirements” for success or performance can help create deep existential anxieties. The solution to this as a psychological reaction for some is found in personal insignificance, to diminish the meaning and risks; some type of an inaccurately defined nihilism.[67]

Are they who subscribe to such views perhaps the best consumers having become docile? Do they seek entertainment over self-selected suffering that might bring them future benefits? Have they lost out on the tribal idea that human ‘effort is as working-worship’ i.e. that effort brings community and personal benefit[68]. Such questioning might be too harsh, as those who systematically espouse their own lack of worth may be stuck in denial or unhealthy psychological dynamics. They may be victims of existential fears or ‘Catastrophic Anxieties’, denying or normalizing their concerns to avoid their realities.

Is it so that only particularly happy and well-balanced people can face very alarming issues without a serious threat to their ‘sense of self’ and their actual felt and realizable safety, psychological and actual, in this world?

How we construct meaning especially through narrative regarding serious issues such as those that are ‘radical evil’ as regarding the worst environmental hazards requires wisdom and mutual empowering action. Our talk will shape our psychological reactions and action possibilities[69].

Views, explanations, and opinions vs. realities

Modern views expressing meaninglessness and postmodern ambivalence counter decades of psychological and other research realities:

These realities are found in many places including in the famous ‘Harvard study on adult development'[70], the work of Ph.D. Lawrence LeShan and that of Ph.D. Victor Frankl[71].

The common factor in this tremendous work connected around the theme of human development (nowadays seen in ‘happiness research’ and ‘positive psychology’) is a very strong emphasis on that for individuals to develop in the best ways (survival and success outcome) they specifically need to find meaning and purpose as well as healthy connections worthy of that meaning. What makes you tick? [72]

Optimal adult development – and ability to make decisions regarding ‘radical evil’

How do we manage to energize ourselves so that we can face life in its reality, even with issues of ‘radical evil’?

One factor has come forth through the research of one of the giants in the current discussion Ph.D. Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi has shown how people are energized by moments of being in the zone which he calls being in flow: where there is a balance of applying learned skills and challenge at hand.[73] This can most easily for many be understood in terms of sport or artistry that is meaningful to people.

Focusing in a way that was absorptive power or the state of flow helped Alice Herz-Sommer a musician who was a holocaust survivor get through the painful experiences of losing family members and friends as well as having been in a concentration camp for two years.[74]

The documentary “Everything is Present: The Wonder & Grace of Alice Sommer Herz” directed by Christopher Nupen depicts her love of music and personality in light of her story.[75]Alice Herz-Sommer shows forth how ‘flow’ helps with psychological strength and also physical health, Alice lived to become 110 years old.

Nourishing ourselves through flow can help us to be cognizant of difficulties and even of ‘radical evil’. Psychological health and strength are needed, even happiness, to think on and act regarding the most difficult issues which are those that can threaten the ‘self’ and create ‘Catastrophic Anxiety'[76].

Lack of psychological well-being, denial, and a more limited view of the interconnection

In light of this research evidence and the work of Øvind Kvalnes Associate Professor at BI The Norwegian Business School, specializing in ‘moral reasoning’, it may be possible that our opinions drawing on the insignificance of things, situations, or self, as when we do not want to apply ethical or moral reasoning but as a matter of taste, are based on denial mechanisms[77]. Alternatively, such views may be simplistic, insincere, even propaganda for commercial or other purposes[78].

We can also question opinions that are overly individualistic, classify too strictly, or lack understanding of interconnections. Such opinions or theories built on them may diminish personal agency and responsibility as theories of “the market” can do when removing thought of personal agency or of “the firm” when removing a sense of personal responsibility. Hence they in part may possibly also be an attempt of ‘the self’ to make issues less significant and a lesser threat to remove ‘anxieties’ or ‘responsibilities’. We have to apply both our personal and collective discretion to know if it is so or not.

Information and factors in decision making

Is everything left open-ended as it is too hard for us to face issues at hand?

There are decidedly many positive effects of the modern abundance of information that has arrived through our expansion and interactions that can be said to derive in part from ‘postmodern’ factors.

Digital technologies help with all sorts of innovation, accelerate science and increase the possibilities in reflecting as on “other cultures”. For an informative list and reflection of such positives visit the Pew Research Center’s web.[79] In spite of the positives the person who undertakes to reflect from the abundant possibilities risks anxieties and uncertainties[80].

Paul Hemp wrote an article for the Harvard Business Review named “Death by Information Overload” published in 2009 where he points in a light way to some very serious issues that can both affect personal psychological and physical health as well as the health and effectiveness of organizations. At the end of the article, he sort of brushes the issues off to make people feel better[81]. Digital technology has been evermore intertwined with people’s lives.

When we know of more ‘radical evil’ that is ongoing because of easier access to information and also because the information can show us the ‘humanity’ or frailty of ‘authority or people in positions of power (we would like to hope they can solve all issues) we risk encountering ‘Catastrophic Anxiety’.

What can we do?

Apply metamodernism to counter the overstretch of the postmodern world? We can apply what we have learned from ‘happiness research’ and ‘positive psychology to help us be stronger so that we are more ‘resilient'[82]. Furthermore, we will see that mediation can also be a proactive discipline that can help actors shape ‘narrative’ and solutions from more early stages.

We can as individuals and groups think on our parameters and wishes regarding decision making so that we are more likely to make better decisions when under pressure.

Working for our psychological health and enjoyment in life and our creative expression becomes ever more important so that we can be responsible and active citizens or participants in business, politics, and other endeavors.

This is the ‘metamodern view’ that seeks to: reconstruct “things that have been deconstructed with a view toward reestablishing hope and optimism in the midst of a period (the postmodern period) marked by irony, cynicism, and despair.”[83]

Let us look at some of the connected issues which are good for us to be aware of when making meaning of the conflict that can happen between taking care of nature and other people and our immediate pressures in decision making.

Ethics? Ethics and decision-making?

Ethics and acceleration of computer technology?

Ethics and morality work by force of habit as when issues serious enough for ethical consideration occur the stimuli can be sufficient to create automatic responses.[84] Definitions of morals and ethics for modern society have been put forth in the work of Diago José García Capilla Associate Professor in Moral and Political Philosophy as seen in his article “From Postmodern Ethics to the New Ethics of the ME Generation: The Transition from Mass Media to the Internet”.[85]

Capilla summarizes what has influenced today’s scenery: “Postmodernism, a culture of vague boundaries, boosted values such as individualism and superficial character, with the Mass Media as a crucial factor in spreading them.”[86]

These postmodern variables with easier access to computer technology have helped with the aggregation of data and acceleration of impersonal decision-making in business (superficial character).

Decisions of superficial character

The best case in point regards the effects of technology on the ‘size of decisions’ in terms of ‘entanglement of effects’ where it is difficult or even impossible to know what market implications or other implications might be[87].

Companies with a high level of ‘immaterial assets’ and profitability as technology companies and some others have due to high earnings in relation to physical and other assets started to act like investment banks or empires within countries, economic areas, or in the world economy. That those companies behave in very expanded ways tells us that our economies are in some aspects in very non-linear relationships with applied work, utilization of natural resources, and so on. This brings a logarithmic increase in the magnitude of risk potentiality that is unforeseeable and dependent on contextual variables.[88]The risk also hangs on confusion with information, meaning, and wisdom made possible in modern times; as data aggregation can hinder access, understanding, and personal overview regarding the individual variables and their connection with ‘reality[89]. In addition coding errors and errors in the use of statistics and mathematics abound[90]. The errors are multiplied because of the expanded use of technology, easier access to it by humans of varying capabilities, the multiplying factors of technology interacting with itself, and other modern factors.[91]

This is serious as we still run our nations and economies on the basis of decisions made from data aggregation.

If mathematics is not properly understood in relation to reality it can lead to ‘detached instrumental and calculative reasoning'[92]; such reasoning misses the mark when we aim for positive survival outcomes just as debasing self misses the mark when we aim for survival for ourselves. The detachment available through data aggregation might at times be connected with the need to reduce the possibility of ‘Catastrophic Anxiety’ or help with denial of the realities that might be inherent in the numbers if they were sourced to the realities they represent.

Modern times and decision making

The increased computing ease available with computer technology from the 1970s onwards has increased nonsense thinking based on aggregates; for instance, when financial actors can miss the understanding of the financial instruments they are using or influencing.[93]Not to speak of the relationship of their decisions to the natural habitat, or actual lives of other people[94]. This has spawned a movement of financial professionals who want to make financial decisions to serve society: “Destroying a rainforest for economic gain is like is like burning a Renaissance painting to cook a meal (E.O. Wilson).”[95]Jason West Ph.D. goes so far as to maintain that quantitative finance needs specialized ethics to counter problems that have become all too frequent in the field[96]. This is the field that is heavily influencing all business and political decisions as well as obviously financial markets.

History and decision making

The remains of history – competition and destruction – geopolitical competition for resources

In former times destruction was thought of as an aid to investment as a process where destruction would lead to investments needed to amp up the economy, or looting would bring home wealth without care of the destruction brought to others. Ideas were built on the clan, the seeming abundant areas for migration and by extension the birth of the nation-state that could seemingly enrich itself at the cost of others by warfare and destruction that would later bring access to labor, resources, and flows of necessary reinvestments to rebuild countries after the ruins of war. The first concern was often for power and the second for wellbeing and building blocks through a period that included extensive warfare and colonization.[97]

Decision making and strategy

The ideas of war migrated into business development through disciplines as a strategy when former military men took over the control of companies after WWII[98]. Earlier than WWII the first corporations could be seen as extensions of power structures and at times reviled state powerful enough to finally get into such trouble as to be dealt with by state authorities that wanted to maintain their power. The British East India Company would be a prime example of such an operation raiding the world based on mercantile thought and principles.[99]We are still dealing with the fact that one company when it destroys assets of other companies or natural resources owned by others does not readily take these losses into account in its own accounts: allowing calculation errors regarding destruction from the viewpoint of the many that even show up as profits in statements.[100]A steady stream of theories has emerged to deal with such issues: From Agency Theories in relation to Theory of the Firm,[101]Stakeholder Theory[102], Corporate Governance[103], The Economics of Governance[104], and obviously local and international law to name a few schools of thought addressing them.

Surprisingly, or not, ethics or business ethics as a concept has often been meeting with a type of sarcasm made to indicate that ethics are far removed from the business and thought on ethics is lofty and fails to be ‘practical’.[105]An example is found in an article named “The Corporate Ethics Crusade” published in Foreign Affairs in 2001, starting with the sentence “ARE MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES getting religion?”[106] Perhaps, or even likely, such brushing to the side of the issue of the ethical dimensions or consequences of business decisions and actions is part of the defense mechanisms we have seen in relation to ‘radical evil’ and ‘Catastrophic Anxiety”.

Responsible everyday decisions?

When Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) first emerged more strongly in the public and academic discussion it seemed like a theoretical or even legal initiative to be taken over. Examples of the takeover are mainly twofold: Corporate consultants could cash in on making complex reporting mechanisms like the Global Reporting Initiative.[107]Or CSR was utilized as a concept embedded in ‘Corporate Communications’, ‘Branding’ and related activities within fields related to ‘marketing'[108]. Both of these avenues could then remove the ethical dimension from the central ordinary management practices of the firm; similarly to when departments in firms become silos (isolated in some aspects from others) hindering holistic thinking and overall performance. [109] Also, this tendency of divorcing causal agents from effects has spun the current trade-in pollution quotas. [110]Is this behavior part of denial mechanisms?

Decision making and money

Can we fix the issues by spending more money?

Investment in education innovation and other solutions mechanisms helps while it understandably does not directly effect current damaging behavior.

It has been seen that investments can not readily “fix” issues as nuclear pollution even though there is some hope of new solutions coming along[111]. Health effects and effects on nature still are in the realm of ‘radical evil’ that can promote ‘Catastrophic Anxiety”. The same anxieties can be evoked in relation to myriad other topics as all the most serious issues connected to business, humans, and the planet. The logic of gaining at another’s cost has been broken because of modern interconnectedness influenced by such hazards[112], while accounting and many other management disciplines are just awakenings to the fact.[113]

“Instead of tinkering around the edges of the market with new products and services, business must now transform it.”[114]

What we need are methods and ways of living that help alleviate the possible reaction to ‘radical evil’ as a topic that has to be dealt with so that ‘Catastrophic anxiety’ is not the response but rather what can generate solutions. These anxieties that can be ‘normal self-preservation’ are reactions in healthy individuals and not classic anxiety disorders, although they can lead to such anxieties[115] or existential angst[116].

Existential angst is more relevant in the current times than often before. It relates to issues as ‘the war on terrorism, the proliferation of online media showing varied dangers, ‘climate change, and other issues that are constantly in media and discussion.[117]

“Now we are more practiced than ever in spotting potential ends. We have made sport of it. We find wrenching, apocalyptic change lurking inside everything — enough to invoke just the kind of despair European intellectuals used to write plays about.”[118]

The solutions that can help people remain functional and not fall into ‘Catastrophic Anxiety” are mostly found in interpersonal communication, relationships, and maturing of the personality – as seen by the theories of ‘positive psychology’ and previously mentioned ‘happiness research’.

Money = Success

Individual actors in business and politics – the danger of burnout – or ‘Catastrophic anxiety’

Success at work was valued so highly in the industrial world after the devastation of WWII that it even at times became an avenue of a ‘socially accepted addiction'[119].

We realize that the discipline of psychology has evolved greatly from WWII pointing us to destructive and healthy behavior[120].

In 1983 one of the first efforts to create a fellowship around work addiction recovery began in New York with Workaholics Anonymous.[121]Escaping difficult realities, emotions, and ‘Catastrophic Anxieties’ through work was long overlooked as addiction while modern psychology has directly shown forth how ‘burnout’ has affected especially the helping professions as firemen and the police very seriously.[122]

In a cultural climate where work is a survival necessity and ‘keeping at it is seen as a virtue those having a harder time of regulating boundaries and emotional drain face serious risks. When people who are in ‘burnout’ make decisions under pressure they have a much lower chance to make good decisions[123]. These same very facts can well apply within the corporate world and regarding business decisions. We do not have to watch the film The Wolf of Wall Street to comprehend that.

Gerald Loren Fishkin Ph.D. has written and talked extensively on burnout and how shame developed from early childhood can make peoples’ lives difficult when they constantly aim for external recognition at the cost of feeling themselves.[124]It has become famous how some citizens have died from overwork; stress and lack of sleep are non-surprisingly lethal as well as before death impairing judgment and leading to bad decisions.[125]

Dying for a paycheck

Stanford business professor Jeffrey Pfeffer has written the book ‘Daying for a paycheck’. In it he shows how modern business and management practices are toxic destroying physical and emotional health. He maintains the necessity of building ‘human sustainability at work.

“Think of the manager in a senior finance role whose immense workload, once handled by several employees, required frequent all-nighters—leading to alcohol and drug addiction.”[126]

Money = business and ethics

Does this have anything to do with ethics?

Do we have any type of obligation to care for others? Is it a matter of survival realities for humanity that someone cares about the emotional health of business managers?

In an Irish Times article, the question was asked what Aristotle would make of the Irish banking crisis. It was answered so:

“He would see the crisis in the banks as an example of what can happen when people ignore the requirement to manage their desires for both their own good and the good of society, which are interdependent. We are naturally social creatures from the existence of family, friends and society.”[127]

The world has witnessed grave economic and natural disasters because of unethical business practices.[128]As “there is a growing realization that existing institutional designs for corporate business structures are proving to be expansive for the larger community, there is growing pressure for a change”.[129]

Ethical analysis – natural resources and business decisions – what are the ways out?

It can be problematic to narrowly define ethical issues and relegate them to philosophical puzzles rather than to think in terms of management, governance, and individual decision-making. Decisions are also shaped by habitual ways of reasoning and thinking and ethical dimensions need to be part of that habit[130]. Otherwise, ethics just become one more avenue of exploration for the specialists divorced from reality and other people (see Gasset).

What practical options can there be regarding these issues we are looking at? What about mediation? Can mediation be one of the disciplines that helps transform businesses and societies so that human life can be sustained longer on the planet? Especially now that businesses and governments need to reinvent themselves to take note of environmental hazards – as discussed regarding ‘The Circular Economy'[131].

Mediation

A Canadian study on mediation in the late 1990s showed mediation to be “a dynamic, complex and evolving work form”, where differences in the nature of mediation were readily found with different mediators.[132]

There is a plurality in the definitions of mediation showing an expanding field in action; there are different ideologies, methods, and views on quality, effective process, and standardization vs. the need for the mediator to apply personal skills[133].

Unlike courts or arbitrators, mediators do not impose solutions on parties, they aim to facilitate a process respecting the autonomy and self-determination of the involved parties to reach solutions acceptable to all involved[134].

The process of mediation itself has even been cast in the metaphor of ‘the black box’ i.e. that as the processes of mediation can be highly sensitive and confidential they are difficult to observe even for those being trained to enter the field as professional mediators: “mediation occurs in a black-box where there is no public viewing”.[135]

A view of mediation as a black-box may diminish how mediation is central to many human activities and how there is a variety of existent processes for problem-solving relations between humans both interpersonal and in group dynamics. Solution processes that can be facilitated range from private consultation of individuals towards all sorts of group dynamics for instance there are interpersonal methods as the Non-Violent Communication of Marshall Rosenberg Ph.D.[136] and group methods as talking circles described for instance by Lewis Mehl-Madrona Ph.D.[137]All processes can be readily applicable for the mediator.

Why could such a misunderstanding exist regarding mediation being mystical or a ‘black box process?

It could be because the view of many is that a ‘dispute’ should be at the last stages before mediation is applied; when the need for confidentiality, neutrality, and very sensitive care might be most understandable to avoid things boiling over[138].

Professor Lawrence Susskind at the Harvard Law School’s program on negation clarifies that too many think of mediation as a last result for issues when it should be clear that mediation is a proactive problem-solving process and could be the first step in a collaborative effort to ward off a problem or work out a creative solution.[139] Such a view allows for a ‘preemptive process’ as well as more open access to what is ongoing and because of that easier learning opportunities for those entering the field.

Role relationships

Mediation has often been thought of based on that mediators should be impartial or neutral. Perhaps that is as the mediator is facilitating increased awareness of the participants regarding the issues at hand, and ways to look for solutions while not imposing predetermined outcomes.[140] This is one aspect that clarifies what is the main difference between diplomacy and mediation as diplomats are to further the interests of those they represent, which may go alongside other interests or not, while mediators are to help parties reach solutions that at best further the interests of all involved.[141]

Nevertheless, the mediator’s ability to be ‘neutral’ is often referred to as a myth:

“Neutrality is arguably no longer an uncontested founding principle for the practice of mediation since both academic studies and practice reflections have found it to be absent in practice… it points to the development of an alternative conception of neutrality, one that abandons neutrality in an absolute sense, but reframes its meaning in relation to that of party self-determination.”[142]

There is a richness in how mediators think about their work, there are also many approaches portrayed in the academic literature as ‘bargaining’, ‘therapeutic’, ‘settlement frame’, ‘transformative’ and more.[143]Perhaps the strictest classifications in mediation are twofold in what regards mediation in the affairs of civilians and civil life or mediation that is geared towards hindering armed conflict[144].

In this paper, we will now put the idea forth that Mediation can be uniquely positioned to help people talk about issues and solutions connected to what are issues of ‘radical evil’ that might provoke ‘Catastrophic anxieties’. Then the process of mediation can be based on the principles of preemptive work, bringing parties together to honestly face reality and look for solutions in a facilitated process. The process can begin with awareness with mediators themselves regarding the psychological and other factors we have been going through in this paper. If so mediation can help utilize resources better from a more holistic standpoint and perhaps help avoid some catastrophes by bringing relevant parties into a solution process that helps surface and face possible ‘radical evil’ with care regarding possible ‘Catastrophic Anxiety’.

Mediation to help with ethical decision making – sometimes by slowing down for a while we can go faster later.

‘Slow is smooth – smooth is fast’ is a reputed special operation saying. Meaning that if we go too fast to have quality in our processes we increase the likelihood of failure. Some steps like preemptive mediation might seem unnecessary while they will bring increased clarity, better decisions and thus will be especially practical.[145]

Ethical decision making what are the steps[146]

The following checklist comes from the International Center for Ethics in Business at the University of Kansas.

“1.Gather the facts 2. Define the ethical issues 3. Identify the affected parties (stakeholders) 4. Identify the consequences 5. Identify the obligations (principles, rights, justice) 6. Consider your character and integrity 7. Think creatively about potential actions 8. Check your gut 9. Decide on the proper ethical action and be prepared to deal with opposing arguments.”

We need as indicated by the 3rd point to consider stakeholders; those that are involved or are to be involved in our mediation between our decision-makers and the consequences for the planet and people. The decision-makers may be reminded about issues regarding their character and integrity and be lead with others into a creative conversation that can bring solutions undetermined by the mediator.

Talks take place all the time regarding people and nature whilst they have to be central in modern times with their serious threats that necessitate special innovation in connection to the ‘circular economy’ and sustainable development.[147]

Mediation is a discipline is designed to help awareness and solutions and to reduce tensions.[148]It can help those who realize the benefit and have authority to make decisions, it brings support in facilitating solutions where the possibility of high tension exists or is already present. Mediation is a discipline has an understanding that ‘conflicts’ are normal and can be dealt with non-violently; it already has an eye towards the storm. One of the main goals of mediation is to help issues surface so that they can be seen and dealt with; “information is surfaced to service the parties rather than serving the mediator”[149]. This mediation can be viewed as a highly relevant process of problem-solving [150] regarding the issues at hand for humanity in modern times. There is a current call for increased research into mediation so that its applicability can be more easily utilized in an enlarged way, as it is considered useful and needed for problem-solving serious issues[151].

SUMMARY

Can proactive mediation help? Remarks and reflection

The field of mediation has been criticized as having an over-emphasis on techniques rather than broader education answering the questions on when and why to apply mediation.[152] With this paper, the hope is to instigate more thought on the potentialities of mediation in tackling issues more preemptively. Helping those involved in decision making as for instance regarding utilization of natural resources for business purposes facing the ‘radical evil’ of serious environmental hazards or other issues pertaining to the ‘radical evil’ category that may have been ‘normalized’ to avoid the psychological factors that pertain to ‘Catastrophic Anxieties’ and perhaps death. If such factors are ‘normalized’ or relegated somehow, the danger is ‘denial’ that debases the individual, business, and society along with innovation and other solution possibilities regarding the said issues. ‘What Makes a Good Mediator?’ The blog of the Harvard Law School program on negotiation asks and answers “To gain parties’ trust and confidence, rapport must be genuine: “You can’t fake it,” one respondent said”. And now we know – we cannot fake it. We will have to face the real issues and tackle them together. The skilled mediator can help surface issues of ethics in relation to decisions as well as factors pertaining to psychological realities and well-being, bringing hope and constructive engagement to the relevant parties.

CONCLUSION

A variety of thought and research has been quoted to open the eyes of the reader to how we humans may aim to ‘normalize’ difficult issues even to the point of ‘ridiculing’ talking of ethics in relation to business to avoid being cognizant of existential threats. A number of current issues have been drawn forth to enhance the description. Especially the paper builds on Immanuel Kant’s concept of ‘radical evil’ as expanded upon by Lawrence LeShan Ph.D. Postmodern thinking has been shown to be overemphasizing subjectivity (no objective reality) to the point of mistaken nihilism. Becoming then a ‘cultural outlook’ that may expand upon anxieties especially in relation to the proliferation of information technology that helps us be more cognizant of possible threats and human frailties – as corruption, censorship, and others. Postmodernism also in part might be symptomatic of such ‘psychological defense’ mechanisms as discussed in this paper which is operated by ‘making things and self seem insignificant as a part of denial. A similar issue presents itself in data aggregation extensively used in ‘decision making’ which may readily be problematic in leading to “detached instrumental and calculative reasoning” and especially dangerous if compounded by increased likelihood for errors that follows easier access to computer technology, programming errors and unsound use of financial models, accounting and mathematics.

These factors are the crux of the conflict between nature and man – the issues are heavy and difficult to think on and solve evoking: “the public’s passionate rejection of any warning which brings out people’s repressed fears and compels them to face if even for an instant, the hideous and threatening reality around them”[154].

A ‘metamodern view’ of these factors seeks to: reconstruct “things that have been deconstructed with a view toward reestablishing hope and optimism in the midst of a period (the postmodern period) marked by irony, cynicism, and despair.”[155] The building blocks for such hope can arrive in part from psychology that points to meaning, embeddedness in relation to others and nature through stories (brain functioning i.e. how we talk and listen – also professionally[156]). Prime examples are ‘happiness psychology’ and ‘positive psychology’ which can help us with methods and ideas for resilience and what it takes to face ‘difficult realities’.

Centrally it is highlighted that Mediation is a process that can reestablish hope and solutions taking note of the findings of the discipline of psychology and derived methods:

Mediation is a process defined by respect for the participants’ autonomy and not imposing predetermined outcomes. It is suggested by the report and reflection of this paper that mediation can be applied as a preemptive process that helps parties deal with difficult issues – even those classifiable as ‘radical evil’ – by process rather than denial (which can lead to ‘Catastrophic Anxiety’) and lack of positive action. Also then it is suggested that mediation can help if denial or anxiety are present by its surfacing of information through the mediation as a problem-solving process.

It is recommended that those who make decisions, especially those that have large-scale effects, know that they can bring in mediation as a process when dealing with various stakeholders or wish for process support with difficult issues. Especially if they become self-aware regarding anxiety or denial, a tendency to rely overly much on aggregate data or are engaged in issues that routinely bring ‘psychological self-protection mechanisms’ into the picture. Mediation should be considered and applied as a preemptive problem-solving process.

Outlook

When a process is started early with mediation there may be less likelihood for denial to build up, than if mediation is sought as a resort for a difficult situation. Might it be easier to maintain communication channels to a variety of stakeholders when applying preemptive mediation as a described course of action than looking to it as a last resort?

Making professionalism overly ‘detached instrumental and calculative’ marked by philosophies and cultural outlook built ‘marked by irony, cynicism, and despair’ does not appeal to reason as being the most sensible stand to take. It makes absolute sense that for people to deal with difficulty they need to have a sense of hope and preferably psychological safety. It also makes sense that it is not sufficient to look to aggregates in terms of data for decision-making. Rather it makes sense to take a hint from ‘research on adult development[157] which showcases that our relations to others, our context, is what matters for thriving. We might want to look towards reemphasizing human connection through knowledge of processes and interaction. Is it time for a ‘metamodern view’ wherein we build hope and meaning and apply ourselves to facing difficult realities together?

A further application is needed of mediation as a preemptive problem-solving process that can help navigate the interests of businesses, governments, other stakeholders, and our embedded environment. Research of applied preemptive mediation is encouraged.

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The proposal at the centre of this paper deserves to be taken further than the paper itself takes it, because preemptive mediation of the kind described already exists under other names, and its practice is well documented.

In environmental and infrastructure disputes it is called consensus building or joint fact finding, and its procedure is established: a neutral conducts a conflict assessment before any decision is announced, identifying who will be affected and what they care about; the parties then jointly commission the studies rather than each producing its own; and negotiation proceeds on a shared factual basis toward an agreement the decision maker has committed in advance to respect. What distinguishes this from consultation is that participants know their contribution can change the outcome, which is precisely why they engage seriously. The record of such processes, in facility siting, water allocation and land use, is the strongest available evidence for the argument this paper makes.

The psychological framework the author builds offers something that literature does not, however, and it is worth stating plainly. Consensus building assumes rational parties weighing interests; the account of denial and catastrophic anxiety explains why rational parties nonetheless refuse to see what is in front of them. That has practical consequences for how a preemptive process is designed. Threat alone produces avoidance, so a process that opens with the magnitude of the danger will lose the people it most needs. What sustains engagement is agency: presenting the problem together with a concrete range of things the participants themselves can decide. Small early commitments that are actually implemented do more than any presentation of evidence, because they replace helplessness with the experience of having acted.

Two further design points follow. Where the subject is genuinely frightening, the process must contain the fear rather than amplify it: separate preparatory conversations before any joint session, ground rules that make it safe to voice doubt, and a pace that allows people to return to a difficult subject rather than resolve it in one encounter. And where denial is institutional rather than personal, expressed through aggregate data that detaches decisions from their consequences, the corrective is to reconnect the numbers to what they represent: site visits, testimony from affected communities, and analysis that traces a decision to the specific people and places it will reach.

A caution belongs here as well. The category of radical evil is analytically powerful and rhetorically dangerous. Applied to an interlocutor rather than to a situation, it makes them a moral monster and ends the conversation, which is the opposite of what mediation requires. The paper is careful on this point, noting that people participate in such outcomes without malice, and that care should be preserved by anyone applying the framework: the mediator holds the gravity of the matter and the humanity of the person in the room at the same time, and it is that combination which makes the difficult conversation possible at all.

Finally, the paper’s call for research is the right conclusion, and it can be made concrete. What the field lacks is not enthusiasm for prevention but evidence: comparative studies of decisions taken with and without early facilitated engagement, measuring not settlement rates but implementation, durability, litigation avoided and relationships preserved. Prevention is chronically underfunded because its successes are invisible, and only documentation makes them visible.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

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[113] Hoffman, “The Next Phase of Business Sustainability”, Stanford Social Innovation Review, Spring 2018. Accessed June 30, 2020. https://ssir.org/articles/entry/the_next_phase_of_business_sustainability#

[114] Ibid.

[115] For descriptions of anxiety disorders see Barlow & Ellard, “Anxiety and related disorders”, Noba textbook series, DEF publishers, 2020. Accessed June 29, 2020. http://noba.to/xms3nq2c For a contrasting explanation of ‘Catastrophic Anxiety” see the work referred to in note 23.

[116] Ciampi, “Existential Angst”, Psychology Today, May 22, 2020. Accessed June 29, 2020. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/when-call-therapist/202005/existential-angst

[117] Abebe, “The Golden Age of Existential Dread”, The New York Times Magazine, October 3, 2017. Accessed June 29, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/03/magazine/the-golden-age-of-existential-dread.html

[118] Ibid.

[119] Davidson, “Four Socially Acceptable Addictions”, Addiction.com, May 14, 2015. Accessed June 29, 2020. https://www.addiction.com/blogs/four-socially-acceptable-addictions/

[120] Baker & Sperry, “History of Psychology”, In R. Biswas-Diener & E. Diener (Eds), The University of Akron, Noba textbook series, DEF publishers, 2020. Accessed June 29, 2020 http://noba.to/j8xkgcz5

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[122] Fishkin, Firefighter and Paramedic Burnout: The Survival Guide – The Role You Play”, Parkhurst Brothers Publishers Inc. February 1, 2016. ISBN-10: 1624910793

[123] Fishkin, “American Dream, American Burnout: How to cope when it all gets too much”, February 1, 2016. ISBN-10: 1624910777

[124] Ibid.

[125] Cummins, “Yes, you really can work yourself to death”, Popular Science, October 19, 2018. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.popsci.com/work-death/

[126] Pfeffer, “Dying for a Paycheck”, Harperbusiness, March 20, 2018. ISBN-10: 0062800922. See: https://jeffreypfeffer.com/books/dying-for-a-paycheck/

[127] Humphreys, “Have you a moral duty to care for others?”, The Irish Times, June 13, 2014. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/have-you-a-moral-duty-to-care-for-others-1.1830257

[128] Salehi, Saeidinia et al, “Business Ethics”, International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Vol. 2, no1. ISSN: 2250-3153, January, 2012. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Mehrdad_Salehi/publication/228469949_Business_Ethics/links/0e286ad2248de1dab653b997/Business-Ethics.pdf

[129] Goel and Ramanathan, “Business Ethics and Corporate Social Responsibility – Is there a dividing line?”, Procedia Economics and Finance, volume 11, 2014. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212567114001750

[130] See note 50

[131] See notes 3 and 4.

[132] Picard, “The Many Meanings of Mediation: A Sociological Study of Mediation in Canada”, Carleton University, Ottawa Canada, August 2000. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://carleton.ca/law/wp-content/uploads/Cheryl-Picard-Dissertation-2000.pdf

[133] See ibid, 134, 135, 139, 140, 142.

[134] Knickle et al, “Beyond Winning: mediation, conflict resolution, and non-rational sources of conflict in the ICU”, Critical Care, London, 16(3), June 19, 2012. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1186/CC11141

[135] Henry, “Mediation as a Dark Art: A Mediator’s Message to Parties Seeking to Settle the Difficult Case”, Business Law Today, March 2014. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/businesslawtoday.2014.03.02

[136] Juncadella, “What is the impact of the Nonviolent communication model on the development of empathy? Overview of research and outcomes”, University of Sheffield, October 2013. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.cnvc.org/sites/default/files/NVC_Research_Files/Carme_Mampel_Juncadella.pdf

[137] Mehl-Madrona, “Introducing Healing Circles and Talking Circles into Primary Care”, The Permamente Journal, Vol. 18 (2), 2014. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4022550/

[138] See note 135.

[139] Susskind, “Arbitration vs. Mediation: The Definition of Mediation as a Problem Solving Process”, Harvard Law School – Program on Negotiation, pon.harvard.edu, June 15, 2020. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/mediation/mediation-as-problem-solving/

[140] Field, “Neutrality and Power: Myths and Reality”, ADR Bulletin Vol3, no1, May, 2000. Accessed June 29, 2020. https://www.mediate.com/articles/fieldR.cfm

[141] Initiative Mediaton Support Deutschland (author), Federal Foreign Office Germany & Initiative Mediation, February 2017. Accessed June 29, 2020. http://www.peacemediation.de/uploads/7/3/9/1/73911539/basics_of_mediation_concepts_and_definitions.pdf

[142] Douglas, “NAUTRALITY IN MEDIATION: A STUDY OF MEDIATOR PERCEPTIONS”, Queensland University of Technology Law and Justice Journal, 2008. Accessed June 30, 2020. http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/QUTLawJJl/2008/7.pdf

[143] See note 132.

[144] See note 141

[145] Indvik, “Slow is Smooth, Smooth is Fast: What SEAL and DELTA Force Operators can teach us about management”, Linkedin, November 25, 2015. Accessed June 30, 2020. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/slow-smooth-fast-what-seal-delta-force-operators-can-teach-joe-indvik/ See also note 89.

[146] May, “Steps of the Ethical Decision-Making Process”, International Center for Ethics in Business, University of Kansas Office of Research, Ethics Education in Science and Engineering, date unknown. Accessed June 28, 2020. https://research.ku.edu/sites/research.ku.edu/files/docs/EESE_EthicalDecisionmakingFramework.pdf

[147] See note 3 and 4 and 113.

[148] Noce et al, “Clarifying the Theoretical Underpinnings of Mediation: Implications for Practice and Policy”, Scholarly Commons at Hofstra Law, 3 Pepp. Disp. Resol. L.J. 39, 2002. Accessed June 30, 2020. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4ecb/f585edc84ac6c3f8ec94d173793a117febfa.pdf

[149] Boserup, “Advanced techniques and dilemmas in mediation – the issue of autonomy and social control in particular”, Mediator.dk, date unknown. Accessed June 30, 2020. http://www.mediator.dk/?P=Advanced-Techniques.1.21.19.0.i

[150] Susskind, “Arbitration vs Mediation: The Definition of Mediation as A Problem Solving Process”, Harvard Law School Program on Negotiation, June 15, 2020. Accessed June 30, 2020. http://www.mediator.dk/?P=Advanced-Techniques.1.21.19.0.i

[151] Wall & Dunne, “Mediation Research: A Current Review”, Negotiation Journal, Wiley Online Library, April 10, 2012. Accessed June 30, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1571-9979.2012.00336.x

[152] See note 148.

[153] PON staff (author), “What Makes a Good Mediator?”, Harvard Law School, Program on Negotiation, June 23, 2020. Accessed June 30, 2020. https://www.pon.harvard.edu/daily/mediation/what-makes-a-good-mediator/

[154] Quoting LeShan where he quotes Arthur Koestler, “The Trail of the Dinosaur”, Macmillan, 1956. P. 148

[155] Abramson, “What is Metamodernism?”, Huffpost, January 9, 2017. Accessed June 27, 2020. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/what-is-metamodernism_b_586e7075e4b0a5e600a788cd

[156] See the work of Lewis Mehl-Madrona M.D. Ph.D. as referred to in note 57.

[157] See note 70.

Supplementary references added by the WMO Editorial Team

Susskind, L., & Cruikshank, J. (1987). Breaking the Impasse: Consensual Approaches to Resolving Public Disputes. Basic Books, New York.

Susskind, L., McKearnan, S., & Thomas Larmer, J. (Eds.) (1999). The Consensus Building Handbook. SAGE Publications, Thousand Oaks.

Ehrmann, J. R., & Stinson, B. L. (1999). Joint Fact Finding and the Use of Technical Experts. In The Consensus Building Handbook.

Kant, I. (1793). Religion Within the Boundaries of Mere Reason, Part One, on radical evil.

Norgaard, K. M. (2011). Living in Denial: Climate Change, Emotions, and Everyday Life. MIT Press, Cambridge.

Stoknes, P. E. (2015). What We Think About When We Try Not to Think About Global Warming. Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction.

United Nations Environment Programme (2015). Natural Resources and Conflict: A Guide for Mediation Practitioners. UNEP and UN Department of Political Affairs, Nairobi and New York.

North Korea and the end of the world

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT *

This article asks whether an international application of empathy could avert nuclear catastrophe on the Korean peninsula. After a historical account of Korea’s division and the Korean War, the author argues that war should be understood as a public health issue in the sense defined by the World Health Organization, and applies the epidemiological logic of the Cure Violence Method, together with Nonviolent Communication and the experience of truth and reconciliation processes, to relations between states. The paper reviews the positions of China and the United States, the reasoning behind North Korean nuclear policy, and expert assessments of the risk, and proposes that Germany and Canada, given their particular histories with North Korea, could broker a process combining acknowledgment of past harm with a freeze on nuclear development in exchange for trade and aid. The perspective and attribution of responsibility are the author’s own; this journal’s editorial position is neutral as between the states concerned.

KEYWORDS *

Korea, North Korea, nuclear weapons, empathy, Cure Violence Method, Nonviolent Communication, transitional justice, truth commissions, public health, deterrence, China, denuclearisation

INTRODUCTION

Would an international application of empathy forestall an early Armageddon? Who benefits from keeping Korea divided?

An overview of the history, followed by an emphasis on tools to counter Armageddon, contrasted with expert analysis, embedded with the news brought to a conclusion.

History

It may be beneficial to look at the background as portrayed in the history books for instance online in the ‘Encyclopædia Britannica’ where we can see a narrative pattern emerge:[1]

As people may know the Korean’s themselves did not choose to divide their country. After a period of weak domestic rule with added external pressures, the country became a biting-bone between Japan and China which had a tense relationship. The Japanese entered Korea to the dismay of the Chinese who had viewed Korea as a client state and increased their presence. Soon tensions came to a clash in the First Sino-Japanese war 1894-1895 were from Japan emerged as a world power that had shown forth the weakness of the Chinese Empire. Just previously Korea is viewed as having been a state in a completely subordinate position to China. After the First Sino-Japanese War, Korea was meant to become independent, while the country rather became subordinate to Japan; as signified by the Korea-Japan treaty of 1905. The tensions between China and Japan getting Korea stuck in the middle again escalated after the Japanese progression of 1931 into ‘Manchuria’; a place considered by the Chinese to be part of their country. Further tensions rose with a military class in 1937 where fighting broke out that lead to battles between China and Japan that then merged with World War II. After the World War with the surrender of Japan; Korea ended up being divided between the Soviet Union and the United States.

“General Order No. 1, drafted on August 11 by the United States for Japanese surrender terms in Korea, provided for Japanese forces north of latitude 38° N (the 38th parallel) to surrender to the Soviets and those south of that line to the Americans. Stalin did not object to the contents of the order, and on September 8. American troops landed in southern Korea, almost a month after the first Soviet entry. On the following day the United States received the Japanese surrender in Seoul. There were now two zones—northern and southern—for the Soviets had already begun to seal off the 38th parallel.”[2]

The Soviets had soon brought with them some “expatriate Koreans” putting them into positions of power in the becoming “North Korea” to create a “communist” state.[3] Then introducing Kim II Sung as “a hero to rule” or their intended puppet ruler.[4] Whilst south of the border the U.S. undertook its favorite experiment of “democratic-capitalism”[5].

MAIN CORPUS

The U.N.

The United Nations took action in 1947 by declaring that elections should be held for the whole country of Korea and that the U.N. would oversee the process for fairness. In 1948 North and South were officially separate states where elections had been held in the South overseen by the U.N. while the Soviets did not let the U.N. observe an election process in the North. [6] Both the rulers of the South and North claimed the whole country. Upon an invasion from the North to the South, the U.N. Security Council meet in absentia of Russia and swiftly decided on a conglomerate military action against the invasion forces; 16 member states were to provide troops under U.S. leadership. This U.N. military action applied just barely managed to push the invasion forces back North – the American and U.S. commander then decided to pursue the aggressors back over the 38th parallel. This resulted in Chinese military intervention for the support of the Northern forces, re-attacking and pushing the U.N.-U.S. forces back into the South. From there on the fighting just got nastier.

Stalin

Until Stalin’s death in 1953 North Korea was kept under strong Soviet influence[7]. The Korean war started just previously to Stalin’s death in 1951 by the north’s invasion into the south. The war may be viewed, as judging from sources the U.S. did[8], as a proxy war between first the Soviet Union and the U.S. and then quite soon also China (that had seen the emergence of the “Revolutionary Communist Government” in 1949) and the U.S. with back up from the United Nations.

Stalin’s successors did not have the same interest in the area leading to North Korea maintaining its own version of Stalinism after Stalin’s death and seeking ever more comfort in its China relations.

How did the fighting cease?

The conflict ceased in 1953 with the creation of a “demilitarized zone” to partition the country and no official peace contract. This can be viewed as a failure in terms of any ideas or hopes of the time for uniting the country. The division of the country was by American suggestion and Soviet acceptance: Korea was to be divided and under the joint administration of several other countries (possibly USSR, USA, China, and Great Britain) then: “in due course, Korea will become free and independent.”[9]

It was so that the U.S. army was especially ill-equipped for the Korean war and seems along with bombing the whole country into a mess have dealt very badly with the situation: “The truly pathetic thing is, never have the troops sent into battle been more understrength, undertrained, underequipped and under-mentally prepared than we were in Korea”.[10]”The price we paid was ghastly casualties”.[11]

A report from the U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center describe the historical context and situation of the U.S. military before and during the war. Explaining and defining the U.S. unpreparedness.[12]One of the reasons for the lack of preparedness of the U.S. was a complete intelligence failure, the CIA had not to be allowed access, and China’s possibility for action was completely underestimated.[13] Whilst it is comprehensible that the U.S. viewed the north-to-south invasion as an invasion into their territory to be acted against, the U.S. decision-makers were not at the time in tune with the actualities of their situation.

In view of history, it is possible that the Chinese have looked upon Korea as a territory necessarily controlled to secure the Chinese borders similar to the position of Tibet. Explaining in an approximate way what is easily visible from any world map; Korea is what closes the bay of the Yellow Sea opposite of Shanghai and Qingdao, Yantai and Dalian. It is worth pointing out that the Korean people have a history, culture, and language of their own and as a nation, they have suffered the role of being ‘caught between’.

Cases in point for analogical comparisons

It is well known that the U.S. acquired Alaska from Russia and that in WWII the strategic importance of Alaska was recognized regarding possible threats. While before WWII gold was found and Alaska started to be recognized for natural resources[14]. How would the U.S. government in an alternative reality consider things if the Chinese controlled half of Florida? Let’s say after a civil war involving the Spanish army. Or if half of Florida had a mutual defense treaty with China and the state was divided in the middle with a “demilitarized zone”? This indirectly paints a picture of how the Chinese authorities may have been thinking at times as when they initiated involvement in the Korean war. The indigenous people of Alaska had little to say about the ownership transfer of Alaska from Russia to the USA in 1867, similarly, Koreans had little to say about how their country was divided. It has been stated by scholars and others that China could not continence Western troops close to their Yalu river border at the time of the Korean War[15] – why should it now? Still currently or as late as in 2019 South Korea is the home of at least “twenty-nine thousand U.S. troops and marines”[16].

The hurts of war

The Korean war is a stain on human history with endless horrors[17]. Things might have been different had the U.S. better understood what it was undertaking, when at the time its decision-makers were feeling that “the Kremlin sought “to impose its absolute authority over the rest of the world.”[18] The Cold War was ongoing and was not surly not cold to the Koreans, an onslaught from the North to the South Korean client state of America meant an attack of Communism[19].

This paper

Currently, as all those who pay attention to geopolitical issues know, North Korea has been producing nuclear weapons with more serious results than most would have suspected would happen so quickly. The Chinese neighbors, as well as the nation of South Korea with the international community, are seriously on alert regarding possible war or nuclear use.

The scope of this paper is to reflect on the situation and suggest avenues of possible action regarding it. It will be shown that war is a public health issue just as defined by WHO (The World Health Organization) [23] and just as violence in neighborhoods is. It will be importantly drawn forth that empathy as a part of serious diplomacy when sincerely applied is a very potent instrument. This is done by connecting the discussion with the ‘Cure Violence Method’, ‘Non-Violent Communication’, ‘Transformative Justice’ and the serious analysis of war experts and foreign policy experts pointing in the same direction as well as highlighting the classical professional analysis that points to the many possibilities of destruction.

When people in nations are hurt they are more likely to engage in war[20].

A British Medical Journal article maintains that “the roots of war lie in poverty: political, economic, and social inequalities whereby individuals or groups are motivated to fight to seek redress.”[21] Correspondingly the American medical doctor Gary Slutkin has made the remarkable discovery that violence behaves like a contagious disease:

A good overview of the doctors work on the subject is found on the web of the U.S. National Center for Biotechnology Information: “In the case of violence, we are looking at a process clearly mediated by the brain, with transmission appearing to come from at least two possible pathways: visual observation (o) and direct victimization (v).”[22]

Hereby the author of this paper suggests that the doctor’s findings are fully applicable to war as the methodology in his system called ‘The Cure Violence Method’ of “interrupting transmission, preventing the future spread and changing group norms” along with other factors fully applies. Further, the World Health Organization defines war as one of the forms of “collective violence”[23]. Hence war and potential war is an extremely serious public health issue; especially in light of nuclear, chemical and other such weapons of mass devastation.

All the three factors highlighted by Gary Slutkin regarding interrupting the epidemic transmission of violence are currently on the mind of policymakers and analysts who see the current day possibility of war in Korea in terms of “opening the gates of Hell”[24], and as seen later in this article as a realistic ‘Doomsday’ scenario, even though they usually use other terms than those focused on public health.

War cascades and multiplies casualties and damage

The problem with analysis on war is that most of the people involved may think overly much in terms of weapons and war which may preclude the creative solutions needed to the very issues of weapons and war. This can be seen from various materials cited in the very article you are now reading. It is worth reminding the reader of how violence has an immense propensity for a cascade or multiplication as explained in the newest forms of predictive statistical research. See for instance the article “A computational science approach to understanding human conflict” by Restrepo et al. published in February 2020 wherein its authors state their hope for the computational science to be a deterrent for initiating military action, as can be understood to be because of the very cascade which can grow in powers based on the casualties in events and strings of events.[25]

Stopping the cascade – how to avoid Armageddon?

‘The Cure Violence Method’ begins by analyzing the clusters involved and transmission dynamics, and uses several new categories of disease control workers—including violence interrupters, outreach behavior change agents, and community coordinators—to interrupt transmission (or the contagion) to stop the spread of the violence/disease and to change underlying norms.”[26]

In the case of nations, violence interrupters can be professional diplomats and mediators, behavior change agents can be those who can through trade and culture address cultural narratives and position, and community coordinators have to be those who can be respected on equal footing by those who could initiate war or the use of nuclear. Regarding the threat of nuclear war, the momentous importance of disciplines like diplomacy comes quickly to mind. It is also worth mentioning how interconnected the world has become and that we are not isolated from what happens in Korea. This is a very serious foreign policy issue for all nations.

Non-violent communication (NVC) as a means of stopping forestalling Armageddon?

Non-violent communication is a powerful tool for mediation in personal conflicts. Its main premise is that empathy; as it relates to feelings and needs, such as for safety, brings connection and release of hurt[27]. That empathy then is crucial in allowing for moving on with relationships and finding ways of fulfilling mutual needs for greater well-being in relations[28]. NVC points to that it is important to connect with empathy to the suffering that has been, as a first step that cannot be glossed over, to be able to move forward to a more hopeful future.

Given that what NVC shows forth holds true perhaps it is necessary that the international community along with the U.S. muster up the courage to acknowledge the hurts suffered by firstly North Korea. This is most important so as North Korea is the issue at hand. Secondly, in applying empathy as a diplomatic tool then also the hurts suffered by South Korea and the U.N. involved parties have to be acknowledged including the hurts of the U.S. military that came very ill prepared[29]into the conflict of the Korean war. This can be done through differing framework and mutual as determined necessary and conductive by those involved while some of this also has to be done publicly for the needed recognition.

North Korea has become isolated from the international community, and from modern cultural norms. All this isolation can cause and does cause various pains and does add on to pains caused by the Korean war. Scholars and others have shown further hurts as when researching and writing about the “Stalin like cultural purge” the regime of North Korea imposed after the war[30]which has caused great suffering. Economic sanctions also continue to create hurt.

Applying ‘The Cure Violence Method’ thinking and NVC thinking to the issue of North Korea

Can the aim be that North Korea now isolated from the community of nations can receive true empathy?

In order to bring discussions on a future with a realistic likelihood of peace and more open trade. With the aim of reintegration of the nation in international relations or at minimum forestalling imminent dangers. Therein NVC thinking would be a means of stopping the transmission of violence, that may be lurking as a danger similar to unaddressed serious bacteria and a step in “The Cure Violence Method” applied on a global scale in international relations. Thus helping to change group norms on a global scale.

Examples of such solutions do they exist? Can they be realistically applied?

Such methodologies and efforts have taken place with what is considered a success in light of how monumentally difficult such a task may seem. The difficulty may be worth the endeavor considering the threats and potentials for a cascade of violence. Such a full-scale effort may need to be initiated in smaller steps.

The immediate threat is: Any type of a possible Armageddon

The current situation with North Korea being hurt and developing ever more long-reaching and potent nuclear weapons gives monumental tactical and strategic difficulties for other nations in dealing with the circumstances. Professional strategists involved with military and other national affairs very solemnly and seriously think in terms of a potential Armageddon.

A June 2018 article in The National Interest has titled: “Armageddon, Here is What Happens If North Korea Hit Seoul with a Nuclear Weapon”[31], an article in Foreign Policy published the year before had been named “Armageddon by Accident”[32]. The thing is that these articles are already old news. The more current information strongly suggests that North Koreans may have developed nuclear weapons that might reach as far as New York[33]. As early as 2017 it became news that Canadians were thinking that such a missile might miss a target and end up in Canada.[34] The Canadian government has tried by diplomatic means to express serious concerns to the North Korean authorities.[35] “World is “sleepwalking its way through a newly unstable nuclear landscape”- “Doomsday clock moves closer than ever to midnight” [36].

If scaring people with weapons corners them in and we are closer to doomsday than before according to the ‘experts’ – what about expertly applying compassion?!

So what about showing compassion if the arms races haven’t been working and war is not an option? Might compassion be a feasible option in light of the risks? In interpersonal dynamics, empathy has really worked as cited in this paper[37]. Also, the direct intervention has worked based on looking at violence as done with ‘The Cure Violence Method’ and herein we argue it is worth looking at war as a human health issue and treat it with diplomatic means aligned with ‘The Cure Violence Method’. Further examples are found in the discipline of diplomacy, one example that has been repeatedly cited is regarding the Cuba Missile Crisis when “J.F.K’S imaginative diplomacy saved the planet”[38].

Realistic solutions!

How then have ’empathy type’ interventions (intervention as in the ‘Cure Violence Method’) worked in the past to avert more violence? And importantly to build a narrative of a hopeful future?

Prime examples are the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of South Africa – deemed to have contributed positively in spite of any shortcomings: See for instance; Gibson, “The Truth about Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa”, published in the International Political Science Review in 2005.[39] Another example is the truth commission of Argentina that preceded the South African one by eleven years. It was named the “National Commission on the Disappeared” and set the precedent in many ways internationally[40] regarding drawing forth, for instance, public truth instead of secrecy, collecting necessary legal evidence, and creating a narrative of hope for a viable future.

Drawing forth truth has a lot to do with providing empathy as defined in NVC as discussed above. Collecting necessary legal evidence has to do with deciding how to act towards a new future – in light of that it is very important to note the global discussion on for example punitive and restorative justice[41], or retributive vs. restorative justice[42].

It is maybe not likely that the North Korean regime would be willing to apply swift major structural changes and apply itself to a process of ‘Transformative Justice’ or similar to “Truth-Commissions”. It is maybe not likely either that the U.S. would participate in such a thing.

Or? Is there a possibility there? Does the work have to be structured in the same ways as in South Africa or Argentina?

The work in those countries can serve as an inspiration and an example of principles at work rather than as a strictly structured frame. In such a way a narrative of hope for a viable future is constructed.

Does punishment, violence or war work to “correct” behavior?

The efficacy of empathy and compassion is also connected to a discussion on why punishment or violence does not work to “correct behavior”[43]. This even goes so far as to include that “deterrence theory [which] suggests that threats of punishment or actually experiencing punishment should reduce the likelihood of reoffending” does not work regarding crime and punishment[44]! Why should we then trust it will really work for us in the long run regarding nations and nuclear weapons? Do people have the potentiality of becoming more desperate with more ongoing suffering?

In fact “punishment does not mitigate neurocognitive impairment or the effects of trauma and exposure to poverty”[45]. War has been shown to increase various forms of mental disorders.[46] Indicating strongly that war does not better human behavior in any general sense.[47] There is an increased ongoing cross-disciplinary look into what relates to war and psychology pointing in the same direction[48].

People that have encountered violence historically have suffered feelings that may be on the spectrum from “apprehension-fear-terror, or annoyance-anger-rage”and decisions regarding war have emotional components and not only logical ones[49]. People have at times historically responded to violence with hate and or revenge. Vendettas with various forms of hatred as blood feuds still exist today even though they are hopefully in a disappearing stage. Yet stories from Albania[50] and Azerbaijan[51] provoke thought and show in a minuscule how communities, clans/tribes, or families can behave. Such blood feuds have existed in many places on the globe including Greenland, where the introduction of Christianity changed the social outlook upon the practice and the stories of society, making revenge considered less viable as an option[52]. Perhaps such cultural interventions that are labeled ´changing group norms´ in ‘The Cure Violence Method’ are exactly the way to go. Introducing empathy and care into interactions can shift the narrative towards a more hopeful future.

What might the relevance of the shift from blood feuds internationally be to the behavior of nations regarding war?

Creating a venue where a narrative of hope can be created instead of a narrative of enemies is imperative for a workable future. People and nations need help to move on from the past hurt when they have not been fully recognized through empathy. Then empathy as an honest instrument has to be applied as a first step, to open up to the reality of what has happened in discussion (as seen from NVC parameters). If empathy is not given the hurt may escape the human neurological system by being shared through violence which leads to further tensions and fear. When peoples and nations’ pain has not empathized with it amounts to a lack of connection and is a type of rejection. Rejection may form part of social isolation and can lead to violence. [53] Currently, North Korea is in a state of such isolation; which is a state of pain.

Instruments

There may exist many different instruments related to diplomacy and communication as the “Truth Commissions” that apply a type of empathy for the restoration of nations and is part and parcel of what has come to be known as “transitional justice”[54].

The questions that come up are for instance:

“What is the best way to transition to a future healthy society after war as the Korean War also in light of current nuclear threats?

What type of reckoning is necessary so that nations and individuals can “come to terms with their past” and do not engage in revenge or desperate acts?

What strategies of transition are available and necessary for a more healthy future?

These questions have to do with a wider discussion and reality of restorative justice – which is the specific practice of bringing people together to address their hurts and amend harm so it is possible to build a sustainable future.[55]

Have such practices really worked? – Yes, they have.

Such practices have been considered helpful all over the world albeit they have been used with varying commitment and results. Still, some of the results have been quite startling and monumentally useful. For one type of overview see a report cited here in the endnotes with references from the International Center for Transitional Justice.[56] It is important that there is true political will and commitment from stakeholders to such a process for it to really allow for transition[57].

REALLY HOW HURT IS NORTH KOREA?

U.S. officials have now acknowledged that their military had implemented orders of shooting upon civilian refugees in the Korean war as there was fear regarding “disguised North Korean enemy troops, […] deliberately attacking noncombatants is a war crime, [] more than a dozen documents [were found] in which high-ranking U.S. officers tell troops that refugees are “fair game”.[58]

An Asia-Pacific Journal Article named “The Destruction and Reconstruction of North Korea, 1950 – 1960” further shows the massive and devastating effects of the war efforts on the part of Korea north of the 38th parallel; including severe famine as all economic factors of production were destroyed with more. [59]

“The US Air Force estimated that North Korea’s destruction was proportionately greater than that of Japan in the Second World War […] The act which inflicted the greatest loss of civilian life in the Korean War by far, one which the North Koreans have claimed ever since was America’s greatest war crime, was the aerial bombardment of North Korean population centers.”[60]

“According to DPRK figures, the war destroyed some 8,700 factories, 5,000 schools, 1,000 hospitals, and 600,000 homes”[61]

Korea as a whole had also suffered 35 years of Japanese occupation until the end of WWII with forced deportations and suppression of Korean culture.[62] While in comparison to that occupation, the horrors of the Korean war were much more seriously devastating for the Korean people.

After the war in the late 1950s in North Korea then there was the mentioned reminiscence of the Great Purge in Stalin’s Russia where the regime of North Korea destroyed potential opposition to a new monolithic regime. These “purges” have also caused suffering for those involved.[63]

North Koreans have invested in keeping the memories of the extensive hurts their country suffered in the Korean war alive.[64]While the U.S. has rather seemingly aimed at forgetting the war as seen by a New York Times article named “Korean War a ‘Forgotten’ Conflict that Shaped The Modern World”.[65]

Foreign policy

New thinking in the foreign policy of nations is necessary because of increased interconnectedness, burning issues, and forestall an early Armageddon.

A recent article in Foreign Policy Magazine addresses this strongly; based on a U.S. perspective. The title is “America Needs a New Economic Philosophy. Foreign Policy Experts Can Help”[66]. The article describes how priorities that are no longer applicable are destructive to many people as when ‘authoritarian capitalism’ undermines ‘market democracy’.

The article is very interesting and worth a read. It maintains that a strategy is needed vs. a free-floating market idea to be abandoned as that turns into ‘authoritarian capitalism’ and thus argues for a state role indirectly. It criticizes what has sometimes been imperfectly labeled ‘neoliberalism’ as a failure, especially in light of the competition China has been generating for the U.S. in recent decades. It states that the U.S. needs to “rethink how the economy operates, the goals it should serve, and how it should be restructured to serve those goals – and this is a geopolitical imperative as well as an economic one”. It further points to a need to advocate an industrial policy which for a long time was considered embarrassing. All of this relates to international relations of nations and possible wars although the article does not mention them but mentions global warming as an imperative. Yet, the article is important as it clearly shows that things are really changing and in need of change regarding geopolitics which touches directly on issues of economics and indirectly those of war.

China

It is easy to see that North Korea survives in light of famines and well-known severe international trade sanctions which are in place because of its China relation by looking at the 2018 trade and former trade history.

“North Korea’s Foreign Trade Trend in 2018”, the country’s trade reliance on its communist neighbor reached a record high last year. It said China accounted for 95.8 percent of the total foreign trade in North Korea in 2018 – up by 1 percentage point from the previous year – with 80.2 percent of exports and 97.2 percent of imports.”[67]

“Since the fall of the USSR China has become North Korea’s only ally internationally”.[68] Yet, the “China-North Korea” relation is not without tension. China has had border disputes with North Korea for a very long time.[69] The countries have a deep history with varying power dynamics through different periods. Currently, it is maintained that the relationship is very crucial for North Korea although the North Korean regime does not want to consider itself in a subordinate position to China.[70]

“North Korea, in turn, has served as a strategic buffer for China, keeping the United States and its allies at arm’s length. Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions have, at various times, been both an asset and a burden for Beijing, threatening regional stability but also providing China with an important source of leverage in its dealings with the United States.”[71]

China has approached North Korea for better trade and transfer initiatives. A most notable project is the building of a new bridge over the Yalu river with associated infrastructure investments that started in 2011 and then came to an abrupt stop in 2014 only recently to have been ignited again, most likely the stop was due to the actions or non-actions of the North Korean regime[72]. The North Koreans have shown themselves again in 2019 to be open to the infrastructural investments of the Chinese in their country – even explicitly requesting them[73].

China’s fear regarding North Korean nuclear

Perhaps most importantly China is not immune from possible rogue actions of North Korea. This is a real threat to China especially in light of nuclear use and a potential war on the Korean peninsula because of the current North Korean focus on nuclear armament. China has supported trade sanctions against North Korea because of the issue although more in word than action and has recently talked for the UN to ease the sanctions[74].

Any accidents regarding nuclear or intentional use can be disastrous for China:

“Some Chinese scientists said the risk of an implosion at the site was greater than ever and China would be covered in radioactive fallout if such a failure were to happen.”[75]

The U.S. – China relation

The U.S. and China are connected by massive debt and trade.[76]

Can it be that “Beijing fears a scenario where Pyongyang could be used against it by Washington, shifting the power dynamic at its expense”.[77] It is very hard to see how a war in Korea that might draw in both the U.S and China could benefit either party – if it would cause massive death and potentially even more so a potential Armageddon as cited above. Let’s rather keep the article from Foreign Policy in mind and understand that the U.S. is changing and need changed imperatives in the intersection of geopolitics and economics. The countries are playing out their aggressions in a ‘trade war’ and most likely have no longing to undermine harmony by initiating any proxy or actual wars[78]. It is sufficient to point to the talk of a potential war in Korea or the use of Korean nuclear weapons as a ‘doomsday scenario to make people understand that any war efforts between the U.S. and China would be so doubled. A more pleasant scenario to think of is that China and the U.S. would compete to, directly and indirectly, open North Korea up to foreign aid, trade, and other more healthy influences.

The Current situation – drawing in the perspectives for a conclusion

In North Korea, there is still a lot of hurts expressed regarding the tolls of the war. The country has produced and maintains nuclear weapons that can be seen both as a desperate cry for having a voice internationally and also as from the North Korean standpoint the only means as having a deterrent to a situation as has happened most recently in Syria for example.

It is quite logical to assume that the Pyongyang regime is completely aware that for it to use nuclear weapons would be initiating an Armageddon scenario. It is more likely that the regime is hoping to be recognized as a nuclear power similar to the situation of nations as Pakistan and India. That rhetoric is explained in an article published in the Atlantic named “North Korea Wants to End Up like Pakistan, not Libya”. In 2011 the U.S. initiated military action in Libya after Libya had been through denuclearization. Similarly, Iraq had suffered U.S. military invasion/intervention after allowed weapons inspectors into the country regarding “weapons of mass destruction”. In fact, the nations that have been deemed a danger to U.S. interests have feared the whims and incalculability of the actions of Washington[79] which seems to be one of the most aggressive military actors on foreign soil on the globe.[80] This is shown for instance in a Washington Post article named “The Infinity War” stating “We say we are a peaceful nation. Why do our leaders always keep us at war?”[81]. The article is written in December 2019 and shows forth that it is completely untenable anymore for the U.S. to claim to be solely a force for peace in the world. The article ends by stating that if the U.S. was a credible force for peace the country had no problem in finding partners far and wide.

“It could make clear that while spreading democracy or human rights remains worthwhile, values cannot come at the point of a gun or serve as a pretext for war — and that international peace is, in fact, a condition for human flourishing.”[82]

This can also be related to the discussion in the Foreign Policy article mentioned earlier that has called out for a new U.S. economic philosophy with the view of geopolitics. [83]

For Pakistan, nuclear weapons have stalled possible invasions from India, and perhaps other countries.[84]This is connected to the rhetoric of nuclear weapons as a deterrent to any invasion or interference of foreign powers that North Korea may be looking at. The North Korean regime has stated that it views its nuclear weapons as “a shield and not a sword”[85].

It is considered so that even the Chinese are not assuredly able to keep North Korea from potentially using nuclear weapons[86]. A realistic conciliation strategy?

Trade sanctions on North Korea are not working as a hindrance to their nuclear program.[87]

It can be read from an article in the Atlantic paraphrasing that China is ‘too busy’ in its pursuit of maintaining harmony to really tackle the risk of Armageddon that is ongoing full force[88]. In the article Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University Shanghai is quoted: “North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program is “impossible to stop,” he told me, “just like it was impossible to stop American nuclear weapons, impossible to stop Chinese nuclear weapons, impossible to stop Israel’s nuclear weapons, Indian nuclear weapons, and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.”

Perhaps this is the pragmatism of the Chinese view. While in contrast, some news from the U.S. indicates that a possible preemptive strike has been seriously considered – although the thought of as being too risky.[89]

This can point to that it is the view of China that North Korea is, in reality, hoping nuclear can be a deterrent to war. And that nuclear is something to be addressed on a worldwide scale more than regarding individual nations. The fact that China is currently increasing investments in North Korea points in the same direction.

So what is the solution?

An article in ‘War on the Rocks’, an American publication on national security, suggests: that such a strategy that allows North Korea to momentarily hold some nuclear not to feel overly threatened by the international community – while freezing any development or use thereof could be with increased forthcoming regarding trade and international aid be a serious step towards a solution. [90]

From the data presented above the author of this paper wants to concur with this conclusion.

SUMMARY

Germany can possibly be best trusted by the international community to broker dialogue and increased solutions with trust from North Korean authorities. To step by step opened up the North Korean economy and ways of thinking to the needed outside influences. This is as the former DDR was the third most substantial foreign aid giver after the Korean war to North Korea after the Soviet Union and China.[91]Canada could really be a partner to Germany in this as Canada is not in favor of any possible nuclear missiles reaching its cities in case they are launched towards U.S. cities and miss their mark, Canada has also participated in North Korea aid.

Canada and Germany can apply diplomacy based on the most prominent U.S. invented instruments of NVC, and ‘The Cure Violence Method’ with reference to the strategy of the ‘war experts’ Levite and Dalton who wrote the mentioned article for ‘War on the Rocks’. Their article is explicitly named “If denuclearization is a fantasy, what can North Korean negotiations achieve” and was published last January the 31st. This strategy would probably also imply that the EU can be involved in future steps.

It is suggested hereby that radical empathy/compassion will be utilized by the international community first through the efforts of Germany and Canada to empathize with hurts both present and of the past and to build a “hopeful future narrative”.

The purpose is to forestall ‘doomsday’ or an early Armageddon and to create a more deep-rooted solution than maintaining the constant threats associated with North Korea in international isolation.

For this effect, it is crucial that the U.S. lives up to what happened in the Korean war, and for that aim at least acknowledges the hurts of the Korean nation and its own military. Based on NVC and ‘The Cure Violence Method’ it can work wonders even without “admissions of the guilt of any party” to apply empathy to suffered hurts. Those methods regarding empathy are designed in the U.S. highlighting the superior development of modern psychology and some aspects of health science in the country. Those can be proud instruments of the U.S. used as weapons of ‘mass peace’.

In answer to who benefits from keeping Korea divided. The answer ought to be no one. As the tensions are too high and the suffering too great, and the danger of nuclear use is real. The U.S. maintains a military alliance with South Korea through a mutual defense treaty giving one of the main posts of the East Asian presence and influence to its military. Is it farfetched that the Chinese or the U.S. would currently support merging Korea considering the geography of China and the differences between the nations in thought on the U.S. military presence in Asia. For now, making Korea perpetually stuck in other nation’s plans. There is hope derived from the case of East-West reunification of Germany whilst even there in Germany, considerable economic differences are sustained even within the single city of Berlin thirty years from its reunification. As of November 2019 former East Germany as a whole still lags behind the former Western part[92]. This indicates strongly that a North-South reunification of Korea would be even more of an economic challenge. If Korea is to be united there would be needed a very tremendous and massive effort of economic aid, trade, and cultural and educational reintegration. Perhaps steps in that direction can be initiated right now?

CONCLUSION

Final conclusion

Potential War and conflict worldwide can be viewed as a highly contagious public health threat that needs to be dealt with assuredly based on public health principles as exemplified by ‘The Cure Violence Method’ and should be taken as seriously as any other high-risk infection. The risk of early Armageddon is best dealt with through diplomacy focused on effective use of empathy for opening North Korea up to trade, foreign aid, and international ideas.

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The proposal at the centre of this article, that acknowledgment of past harm should precede and enable negotiation, is well founded in mediation practice and deserves to be taken more seriously than it usually is in interstate diplomacy. Where a party believes its suffering has never been recognised, it will treat every proposal as an attempt to move past that suffering rather than to address it, and no incentive structure compensates for that. The Korean case is unusually clear, since the destruction of 1950 to 1953 is central to how one party understands itself and is largely absent from how the other remembers the same events.

Two refinements would strengthen the proposal. Acknowledgment works best when it is reciprocal and specific rather than general and one directional. A process in which each party names what it did and what was done to it, including the invasion that began the war, the treatment of civilians on all sides, the bombing campaign, and the fate of separated families and abductees, is both more truthful and more durable than an apology offered by one party alone, which is politically impossible in any case and would be received as weakness. Acknowledgment also need not be simultaneous with negotiation: humanitarian steps such as family reunions, repatriation of remains, and clarification of the missing carry acknowledgment implicitly and can be agreed while formal talks remain stalled.

The choice of intermediary is well judged, and its logic is worth stating explicitly. Germany and Canada qualify not because they are more virtuous but because they are not principals: neither is a party to the armistice, neither has forces on the peninsula, and both have prior contact that is not defined by the confrontation. This is the classic profile of an effective facilitator, and it is why smaller states have repeatedly opened channels that great powers could not. Their role would be to convene and to carry, not to substitute for agreement among those who must eventually sign.

On substance, the freeze for relief approach the author endorses is the one most negotiators have converged upon, and its difficulty should be acknowledged. A freeze verified only by declaration is worthless, while intrusive verification is precisely what a state fearing regime change will resist. The way through is incremental reciprocity: a defined, monitored limitation matched by a defined, reversible relaxation of sanctions, repeated in small steps, so that neither side is asked to trust further than the next verifiable move. Every previous agreement on the peninsula collapsed at the point where one party was required to move substantially ahead of the other.

Finally, a caution about the framework itself. Treating war as a public health problem is illuminating and has real analytical value, but the analogy has a limit that matters here: an epidemic has no intentions, while states do. Empathy in diplomacy is powerful precisely when it is combined with clear sighted assessment of interests, and a process that offers recognition while ignoring the security calculations of each party will not survive contact with those calculations. The strongest version of the author’s argument is not that empathy replaces hard bargaining but that, in a conflict where seventy years of pressure has produced neither denuclearisation nor peace, acknowledgment is the one instrument that has never seriously been tried.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

REFERENCES

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[9] See note 7

[10] Vogel, "Unprepared to Fight", The Washington Post, Jun. 19th, 2000. Accessed Feb 06, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/2000/06/19/unprepared-to-fight/ea8f34fe-794b-4085-b805-b67140b8e6a4/

[11] Ibid.

[12] Crane et al, ""Come As You Are" War: U.S. Readiness for the Korean Conflict", U.S. Army Heritage and Education Center, The United States Army War College, published 2019. Accessed Feb. 06, 2020. https://ahec.armywarcollege.edu/documents/U.S._Readiness.pdf

[13] Riedel, "Catastrophe on the Yalu: "America's Intelligence Failure in Korea", Brookings, Sep. 13th, 2017. Accessed Feb. 06, 2020. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/09/13/catastrophe-on-the-yalu-americas-intelligence-failure-in-korea/

[14] See for instance history.state.gov an look up "Purchaise of Alaska".

[15] See note 7. And Ministry of Foreign Affairs of The People's Republic of China. Accesed Feb. 10. 2020. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/ziliao_665539/3602_665543/3604_665547/t18022.shtml

[16] Albert, "China-North Korea Relationship", Council on Foreign Relations, Jun. 25th, 2019. Accessed Jan, 18th, 2020. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-north-korea-relationship

[17] "War is Boring", "How the Korean War's Brutality Turned the Stomachs of America's Most Hardened Soldiers", The National Interest, apr. 13, 2019. Accessed feb. 02, 2020. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-korean-war%E2%80%99s-brutality-turned-stomachs-america%E2%80%99s-most-hardened-soldiers-52237

[18] ibid

[19] Ibid.

[20] British Medical Journal, "Inequality and Poverty Cause War", Feb. 09, 2002. As accessed Feb. 06, 2020 at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1122240/

[21] Ibid.

[22] Slutkin, "Contagion of Violence: Workshop Summary", NCBI, Feb. 06, 2013. Accessed Feb. 06, 2020. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK207245/

[23] WHO, "World Report on Violence and Health", Chapter 8. Date unknown. As accessed on Feb. 06, 2020. https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/violence/global_campaign/en/chap8.pdf See also a working paper of WHO: "Conflict and Health", The World Health Organization – Department of Emergency and Humanitarian Action", Jun. 19, 2000. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.who.int/hac/techguidance/hbp/Conflict.pdf

[24] Kazianis, "An U.S. Invasion of North Korea Would be Like Opening the Gates of Hell", May 13, 2019. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/us-invasion-north-korea-would-be-opening-gates-hell-57377

[25] Restrepo et al, "A computational science approach to understanding human conflict", Journal of Computational Science, Feb. 03, 2020. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877750319313456

[26] See note 13

[27] Kashtan & Kashtan, "Basics of Non-Violent Communication", Baynvc, date unknown. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://baynvc.org/basics-of-nonviolent-communication/

[28] Visakavičiūtė & Bandzevičienė, "Impact of the Nonviolent Communication Intervention Program on the Social Behavior of the Participants: Overview of the Systematic Research Analysis", Social Work Research Journal, Vol. 17, No. 1, 2019. Accessed Feb. 06, 2020. https://www3.mruni.eu/ojs/social-work/article/view/5023

[29] Vogel, "Unprepared to Fight", The Washington Post, Jun. 19th, 2000. Accessed Feb 06, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/2000/06/19/unprepared-to-fight/ea8f34fe-794b-4085-b805-b67140b8e6a4/

[30] Roberts, "North Korea: Life in Cultural Isolation", BBC Magazine, Dec. 20, 2011. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-16243995 See also: Lankov, "Kim Takes Control: The "Great Purge" in North Korea, 1956 – 1960", Korean Studies, Vol. 26, No 1, 2002. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23719326

[31] Depetris, "Armageddon: Here is What Happens if North Korea Hit Seoul with a Nuclear Weapon", The National Interest, Jun 12, 2018. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/armageddon-here-what-happens-if-north-korea-hit-seoul-26232

[32] Luce, MCLoughlin & Groll, "Armageddon by Accident", Foreign Policy, Oct 18, 2017. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/18/armageddon-by-accident-north-korea-nuclear-war-missiles/

[33] BBC, "North Korea's nuclear and missile programme", BBC.com, Oct. 09, 2019. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689

[34] Hopper, "Why Canada would be directly in the way of a North Korean nuclear war", National Post, Aug. 03, 2017. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-canada-would-be-directly-in-the-way-of-a-north-korean-nuclear-war

[35] Ling, "Canada pressed North Korea to abandon nuclear weapons program during secretive talks to free Toronto pastor", CBS, Feb. 27, 2019. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-hyeon-soo-lim-1.5034442

[36] Fromer, "Citing Nuclear North Korea, "Doomsday Clock" moves closer than ever to midnight", NK News, Jan. 23, 2020. Accessed Feb 12, 2020. https://www.nknews.org/2020/01/citing-nuclear-north-korea-doomsday-clock-moves-closer-than-ever-to-midnight/

[37] See note 28

[38] Staunton, "JFK's imaginative diplomacy saved the planet", The Irish Times, Nov. 22, 2013. Accessed Feb. 12, 2020. https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/people/jfk-s-imaginative-diplomacy-saved-the-planet-1.1602601

[39] Gibson, "The Truth about Truth and Reconciliation in South Africa", International Political Science Review, Vol. 26, No. 4, Oct. 2005. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/30039021 See also: United States Institute for Peace: https://www.usip.org/publications/1995/12/truth-commission-south-africa and the web of the official South African institution: https://www.justice.gov.za/trc/

[40] Crenzel, "Argentina's National Commission on the Disappearance of Persons: Contributions to Transitional Justice", International Journal of Transitional Justice, Jun. 17th, 2008. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijtj/ijn007

[41] Wagele, "Restorative Justice or Punitive Justice?", Psychology Today, Aug. 05, 2014. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-career-within-you/201408/restorative-justice-or-punitive-justice

[42] Poortvliet, "Retributive Justice vs. Restorative Justice", Study.com, date unknown. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://study.com/academy/lesson/retributive-justice-vs-restorative-justice.html

[43] Kelly, "Why Punishment Doesn't Reduce Crime", Psychology Today, Apr. 25, 2019. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/crime-and-punishment/201804/why-punishment-doesnt-reduce-crime

[44] ibid

[45] ibid

[46] Murthy and Lakshminarayana, "Mental health consequences of war: A brief review of research findings.", World Psychiatry, Feb. 2006. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1472271/

[47] ibid

[48] Wein, "Using Psychology to Comprehend War", behaviouraleconomics.com, date unknown. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/behaviour-change-and-conflict/

[49] Sylwester, "Emotions and Feelings in A Time of War", Brain Connection, Apr. 07, 2003. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://brainconnection.brainhq.com/2003/04/07/emotion-and-feelings-in-a-time-of-war/

[50] Mattei, "Albania: The dark shadow of tradition and blood feuds", May 14, 2016. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/03/albania-dark-shadow-tradition-blood-feuds-160318033023140.html

[51] Maydan Tv, "V for Vandetta: Blood Feuds in Azerbaijan – a thing of the past?", Maydan Tv, Jul. 31, 2019. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.meydan.tv/en/article/v-vendetta-blood-feuds-azerbaijan-are-they-thing-past/

[52] Sonne, "The Ideology and practice of blood feuds in East and West Greenland", Inuit Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1984. Accessed Feb. 11, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/42869352?seq=1

[53] Weir, "The Pain of Social Rejection", American Psychological Association, Vol. 43, No. 4, 2012. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://www.apa.org/monitor/2012/04/rejection

[54] Eisikovits, "Transitional Justice", Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Fall 2017 Edition. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/justice-transitional

[55] See: The Centre For Restorative Justice, as accessed Feb. 07, 2020. http://restorativejustice.org/restorative-justice/about-restorative-justice/tutorial-intro-to-restorative-justice/lesson-1-what-is-restorative-justice

[56] ICFTJ, "Challenging the Conventional, Can Truth Commissions Strengthen Peace Processes?", Jun. 2014. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://www.ictj.org/sites/default/files/subsites/challenging-conventional-truth-commissions-peace/docs/ICTJ-Report-KAF-TruthCommPeace-2014.pdf

[57] Langer, "Are Truth Commissions Just Hot-Air Balloons? A Reality Check on the Impackt of Truth Commission Recommendations", Desafios, Vol. 29, No 1, Jun. 2017. Accessed Feb 07, 2020. http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0124-40352017000100007

[58] Hanley & Mendoza, "Report: Korean War-Era Massacre Was Policy", CBSNews, apr. 14, 2007. Accessed feb. 02, 2020. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-korean-war-era-massacre-was-policy/

[59] Armstrong, "The Destruction and Reconstruction of North Korea, 1950-1960", The Asia-Pacific Journal, March 16, 2009. Accessed Feb. 02, 2020. https://apjjf.org/-Charles-K.-Armstrong/3460/article.html

[60] ibid

[61] ibid

[62] Williams, "The Korean War and Crimes Against Humanity: Forgotten When We Need to Remember", Globalresearch, Oct. 15, 2017. Accessed Feb 13, 2020. https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-korean-war-and-crimes-against-humanity-forgotten-when-we-need-to-remember/5589377

[63] Lankov, "Kim Takes Control: The "Great Purge" in North Korea, 1956 – 1960", Korean Studies, Vol. 26, No 1, 2002. Accessed Feb. 07, 2020. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23719326

[64] Jeppesen, "Inside North Korea's Shocking Museum of American War Atrocities", The Daily Beast, Sep. 19, 2019. Accessed Feb. 12, 2020. https://www.thedailybeast.com/inside-north-koreas-museum-of-american-war-atrocities

[65] Stack, "Korean War, a 'Forgotten' Conflict That Shaped the Modern World", The New York Times, Jan. 1, 2019. Accessed Feb. 12, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/world/asia/korean-war-history.html

[66] Harrish & Sullivan, "American Needs A New Economic Philosophy. Foreign Policy Experts Can Help". Foreign Policy, Feb. 07, 2020. Accessed Feb. 14, 2020. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/07/america-needs-a-new-economic-philosophy-foreign-policy-experts-can-help/

[67] Jeong Ho, "North Korean trade with biggest partner China dives 48 per cent amid sanctions", South China Morning Post, Jul. 19th, 2019. Accessed Jan 18th, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3019348/north-korean-trade-biggest-partner-china-dives-48-cent-amid

[68] Gomá Pinilla, "Border Disputes Between China and North Korea", China Perspectives, March 2004. Accessed Feb. 10, 2020. https://journals.openedition.org/chinaperspectives/806

[69] See note 38.

[70] Wertz, "China – North Korea Relations", The National Committee on North Korea, Nov. 2019. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.ncnk.org/resources/briefing-papers/all-briefing-papers/china-north-korea-relations

[71] Ibid.

[72] Finch, "Unfinished bridge reveals broken state of North Korean alliance with China", The Guardian, nov. 14, 2016. Accessed Feb 10, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/nov/14/dandong-sinuiju-unfinished-bridge-reveals-broken-state-north-korea-alliance-china Seul Gi, "Sources: New Yalu River Bridge may open next year", Daily NK, Dec 27, 2019. Accessed Feb. 10, 2020. https://www.dailynk.com/english/sources-new-yalu-river-bridge-may-open-next-year/

[73] ibid.

[74] Nichols, "China says lifting some U.N. sanctions on North Korea could help break deadlock", Reuters, Dec 17, 2019. Accessed Feb. 10, 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-un-china/china-says-lifting-some-u-n-sanctions-on-north-korea-could-help-break-deadlock-idUSKBN1YL0LL

[75] Chen, "Chinese scientists warn North Korea about disaster threat at a nuclear test site", South China Morning Post, Oct. 27, 2017. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2117340/chinese-scientists-warn-north-korea-about-disaster-threat-nuclear

[76] Gunnthorsson, "Trade-wars and making of meaning", WMO Conflict Insight, ISSN: 2628-6998 Nov. 7, 2019. Accessed Feb 13, 2020. https://worldmediation.org/trade-wars-and-making-of-meaning/

[77] Jiangtao, "How China is using North Korea in its long game against America", South China Morning Post, Jun 16th, 2018. Accessed Jan. 18th, 2020 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2151128/how-china-using-north-korea-its-long-game-against

[78] Ibid.

[79] England, "Donald Trump's whims stoke fears of instability in the Middle East", Financial Times, Nov. 03, 2019. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/cc040f18-f987-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6

[80] Faux, "Why has the U.S. invaded, occupied or bombed 14 Muslim countries in 30 years?", StoptheWarCoallition, Nov. 19, 2015. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. http://www.stopwar.org.uk/index.php/news-comment/49-why-has-the-us-invaded-occupied-or-bombed-14-muslim-countries-in-30-years

[81] Moyn & Wertheim, "The Infinity War", Dec. 13, 2019. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/12/13/infinity-war

[82] Ibid.

[83] See 65

[84] Tasleem, "Pakistan's nuclear use doctrine", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jun. 30, 2016. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/pakistan-s-nuclear-use-doctrine-pub-63913

[85] Thakur, "North Korea's 2020 vision: A Nuclear Shield and not a Sword", Japan Times, Feb.02, 2020. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/02/02/commentary/world-commentary/north-koreas-2020-vision-nuclear-shield-not-sword

[86] Perlez, "North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal Threatens China's Path to Power", The New York Times, Sept. 15, 2017. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/05/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-china.html

[87] Dethomas, "Sanctions, this time it will work for sure!", 38north, Jan 28, 2020. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.38north.org/2020/01/jdethomas012820/

[88] Freidman, "Why China isn't doing more to stop North Korea", The Atlantic, Aug. 09, 2017. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-the-china-options/535440/

[89] Arkin et al, "U.S. May Lunch Strike if North Korea Reaches for Nuclear Trigger", NBCNews, Apr. 13, 2017. Accessed Feb 13, 2020. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-may-launch-strike-if-north-korea-reaches-nuclear-n746366

[90] Levite and Dalton, "IF DENUCLEARIZATION IS A FANTASY, WHAT CAN NORTH KOREAN NEGOTIATIONS ACHIEVE?", Warontherocks, Jan. 31, 2020. Accessed Feb 13, 2020. https://warontherocks.com/2020/01/if-denuclearization-is-a-fantasy-what-can-north-korean-negotiations-achieve/

[91] DW In Depth, "North Korea cables reveal East-Germany's deep rooted suspicion of Kim regime", DW, Feb. 08, 2018. Accessed Feb 13, 2020. https://www.dw.com/en/north-korea-cables-reveal-east-germanys-deep-rooted-suspicion-of-kim-regime/a-42160823

[92] Gramlich, East Germany has narrowed economic gap with West Germany since fall of Communism but still lags", Pew Research Center, Nov. 06, 2019. Accessed Feb. 13, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/06/east-germany-has-narrowed-economic-gap-with-west-germany-since-fall-of-communism-but-still-lags/

The Lebanese Situation – The Economic Models of the World Do Not Work

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT *

Writing from an Icelandic perspective, the author examines the Lebanese unrest that began in October 2019 and places it in a global context. The article describes the sectarian power sharing system, the evidence of elite capture assembled by the World Bank, Transparency International and Lebanese researchers, and the banking arrangements that several commentators have characterised as a Ponzi scheme. Wider sections consider the decline of the nation state, the power of multinational corporations, kleptocracy as a driver of civil unrest, and research on elites, drawing comparisons with the Icelandic banking collapse of 2008 and the conversion of Iceland in the year 1000. The author asks whether Lebanon’s elites might relinquish wealth and power to avert escalation. The characterisations reflect the author’s own perspective; this journal’s editorial position is neutral.

KEYWORDS *

Lebanon, October revolution, sectarianism, confessionalism, kleptocracy, elite capture, banking crisis, Hezbollah, nation state, multinational corporations, Iceland, wealth disparity

INTRODUCTION

An overview regarding news of Lebanese unrest in a global context.

Lebanon grapples with its worst economic crisis since the civil war.[1] The ruling elite both as appearing from evidence in media and decree of international organizations seems to be stuck in ties of monetary gain and international kleptocratic business. Then having potentially lost full self-determination as of political domestic and international pressures, and because of their own mismanagement especially directly and indirectly regarding the nation’s banking system. The elite claims power based on a delicate balance of religious groups – inherited from the deliberations of foreign powers – while the nation itself seems united enough across any religious differences in demands for better societal conditions and ways of living. This unity demands honest ruling systems and healthier distribution of wealth in the country. There are some possible outcomes either related to violence or redistribution of wealth. Violence has begun to break out as security forces have been directed against protesters in the country, while the elite is not crashing down as they possibly could with military force. Currently, it appears that it is unlikely that the rulers can meet the protesting public’s demands for the creation of a more “normative democracy” instead of the very special sectarian system that is installed. Due to these factors, violence can escalate. The Lebanese situation showcases historic global difficulties and international influences.

Lebanon:

Some in the north of the globe may have first heard of Beirut in their youth while watching TV; learning about “heroic” war journalists as John MacCarthy and Robert Fisk trying to describe events as serious as the siege of the city.[2] The civil war lasted long from 1975 – 1990. After the civil war, Syria assumed a type of guardianship over the country only to move out as recently as in 2005.[3] Obviously, Syria has currently been thrashed down by a raw war and is not in any position to raise Lebanon. Iran and Israel as neighbors have Hezbollah between them in Lebanon the “most heavily armed non-state actor in the world”[4], that has increased in strength via participation in the recent war in Syria[5]. Currently, Iran is “working overtime” to turn so-called dumb missiles into smart ones, and Israel works hard at developing and maintaining its missile defenses. “Iran and Israel have been playing a quiet game of chess across the Middle East – difficult for the casual observer to discern but punctuated by the periodic explosion”[6].

Now current news does not bring the same exact feelings of a hopeless civil war, yet instills a sense of dire urgency starting from last October with events being tagged as the “October revolution”. The failing economy with news of the government intending to increase taxes lead to riots in protest of corruption in the ruling classes and mismanagement. The first person has already been shot.[7] If this is taken into context of added tensions between Iran and Israel, or taking into consideration that there are also claims that other foreign powers or superpowers are pressing for what might lead to war it is obvious that many people could potentially end up in the crossfire.[8]

MAIN CORPUS

Background:

After the civil war, the Lebanese maintained politics cast in terms of a type of balance of political-religious denominations. This was done with a national pact that served to maintain power check on different groups in the country in a way considered harmonious with the interests of foreign powers in the Middle East as those of Britain and France. “Although the agreement was congruent with the interests and political ambitions of the elite, it did not necessarily reflect the perceptions, concerns, and communal priorities of the people”.[9] The current politicians point to that said balance as being so delicate as enforcing them to have to be in power. While the public expresses that the entire political class is corrupt and has less than Godly aims in its operations[10] and demands change:

The Lebanese nation is calling for a revisiting of democracy and freedoms from economic difficulty. It is stated repeatedly that the public is very united in calling forth new governance with fresh actors and a secular state, while those who are opposing the protestors aim to highlight religious differences to maintain power balance tensions[11].

The governors have with their actions admitted guilt and shown in some way how willing they are to keep power: “The scale of the protests appears to have taken the government completely by surprise. In an attempt to quell the protests, Saad Hariri, Lebanon’s former prime minister has resigned while just before his resignation he announced a package of reform measures. The measures included cutting the salaries of top officials, and abolishing several state institutions and requirements on the Lebanese banks to pay a onetime tariff.”[12] Those actions still have been far from sufficient to instill confidence in the public, neither has a proposal for a new Prime Minister Hassan Diab[13]. Protesters have been in fury especially after the President of the country stated in an interview that if people didn’t like the situation they could move from the country: “In a televised interview on Tuesday evening, Mr. Aoun said that “if people aren’t satisfied with any of the decent leaders let them emigrate”.[14]

The situation of the people:

An elder gentleman is quoted in media saying: “There are no social services, no pension….if I don’t work I don’t eat”.[15]

The images and ideas that come to mind reflect motives from history as those regarding the French Revolution and sayings as “pride leads to downfall”. When the situation has become intolerable for the majority of all the public – the ruling elites may fear for their lives, if not only because of the public then because of the local geopolitical instability and the possibility for a war in the region. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies goes as far as stating now on the 19th of December that Iran wants conflict and is strengthening itself to be able to pursue it.[16] Further in The Grayzone last December 11th a strong statement is made as to that through “parties” the U.S. supports it has infiltrated the protests to push the country toward war or to amp up the pressure on Hezbollah.

Is there a possible solution for the elites to save their lives or position as the situation is so contentious?

Can they have the courage to give? The courage to read the times right and give up the majority of their wealth and control? Is this possibly a global problem for political elites? [17]How much can they give up to maintain what they can have? Or is it even remotely possible that the elite or parts of it have an interest in an escalation of instability in the country?

As will be shown the elites are the ones who can exert force via means that are state legitimized. They still have some power to shift things around.

In this article when the term elites are used it applies indiscriminately regarding those in political power in Lebanon without considering the ethics of individual actors. Also, it applies to political and business spearheads internationally where the global situation is brought up or international cases.

What is leadership? On what do privilege and responsibility stand?

In the U.S. some of the super-rich are preparing for a doomsday scenario – perhaps they have bad conscience driving them, or better knowledge of the state of financial markets than many; who knows? While it seems that often they engage in escapism rather than facing the downcast and helping them out. An article published in the New Yorker in January 2017 paints such a picture.[18] It is named “Doomsday Prep For The Super Rich”[19]. According to the descriptions, one would think that in many places the situation is easier in the U.S. than in Lebanon. What does all of this tell us? And what about the protests in France?

A recent Aljazeera article “Civil unrest around the world is impacting the financial markets”[20]in a simple way shows the global scale. In an article on the World Economic forum’s web, it is stated: “Most aid organizations are still not focused on the role of elites in perpetuating a violent status quo. Part of the reason is that it is too “political” and could quickly get them into trouble. “[21]

The nation-state as an entity seems everywhere to be failing at granting the majority of its citizens hope, drive, and a worthwhile future. Even in countries formerly considered affluent, as the U.S., the average citizen may feel that “the system” is “rigged against them”. [22]

The fall of the nation-state?[23]

“Why is this happening? In brief, 20th-century political structures are drowning in a 21st-century ocean of deregulated finance, autonomous technology, religious militancy and great-power rivalry. Meanwhile, the suppressed consequences of 20th-century recklessness in the once-colonised world are erupting, cracking nations into fragments and forcing populations into post-national solidarities: roving tribal militias, ethnic and religious sub-states and super-states. Finally, the old superpowers’ demolition of old ideas of international society – ideas of the “society of nations” that were essential to the way the new world order was envisioned after 1918 – has turned the nation-state system into a lawless gangland; and this is now producing a nihilistic backlash from the ones who have been most terrorised and despoiled.”

The above quotation is very descriptive and comes from a 2018 article written by Rana Dasgupta in The Guardian.[24]

Large corporations have become supranational entities – and they often intimately involve politicians even in kleptocratic ties.

For years people have asked questions such as “Are Companies More Powerful than Countries?”[25], “Who’s in control – the Nation States or Global Corporations?”[26], “Are Multinationals Eclipsing Nation-States?”[27] and pondered thoughts as “taking back sovereignty from multinationals will require international cooperation”[28]. We can further ask, what is the character of the individual persons involved? Given that managers, gangsters, civilians, employees and employers, and politicians are all people and many with multiple roles and engaging in various social networks.

Explanations regarding corporate pressure on states and politics come up as: “while multinationals.[…]..have emerged as a global political force in their own right, the loss of authority among nation-states is due to a combination of factors, including faltering GDP growth, record-level public debt, increasingly polarised politics, and legislative paralysis.”[29]…or…”In the pursuit of narrow corporate objectives and strategies, a relatively small number of these enterprises have achieved such a command over global resources, and with it such an impact on the international economy, as to raise serious doubts about the long term survival of the nation-state as a form of political organization.”[30]

Regarding internationally operating business with high local influence, banking comes into focus as a chief catalyst.

The international state of governments in a continued state of a kleptocracy:

Articles describing the prevalent situation of seemingly all worldwide governments being connected with one form of kleptocracy or another abound. It is a central tenant that ongoing kleptocracy worldwide promotes civil unrest and violent extremism, robbing the citizens of their dignity are described by the knowledgeable such as Sarah Chayes foreign policy expert and author of the book “Thieves of State”.[31] She is quoted in an interview saying “I think the West has lost the balance between rectitude and liberty. We’ve gone off the charts on liberty, especially liberty that is enjoyed differentially. In other words, if you have money, you’re free, and if you don’t, you’re not.” She further states “we have to change…framing, to understand that in some countries, the government is not a government that may be failing. It’s a criminal organization that’s succeeding.”[32]

The worldwide situation can easily be gleaned from articles in international media as “American Kleptocrats Finally Feel The Heat”[33],” Congress Wakes Up, Finally Decides to Tackle Kleptocracy”[34] and “The West Is Open For Dirty Business”.[35] A research article published in African Affairs in 2014 elucidated how kleptocracy created a civil war in South Sudan. It is titled: “When kleptocracy becomes insolvent: Brute causes of the civil war in South Sudan”.[36]

Kleptocracy has often felt like the most adapted description even of supposed to be prime examples of democracies. Even those respecting gender equality and best business practices as in the case of Iceland, with Icelandic politics being kleptocratic in the eyes of the average Icelander and many others. Michael Hudson economist and Research Professor at the University of Missouri has for instance written about the case of kleptocracy in Iceland. [37] Stories of privatization to friends and families abound, globally, as exemplified now in the Namibian-Icelandic fishing scandal[38]. Perhaps such truths give many a feeling of vulnerability, helplessness, and lack of hope for a better future. Those who can muster anger that then may lead to riots in the streets. But what instruments of change work? Does violence?!

The research of elites internationally – The situation of the governing powers – The powers that often can utilize legitimized or partially legitimized force:

Classically the elites have been under-scrutinized. Perhaps they themselves have rather felt entitled to study others – as was the case when Western anthropologists went to the wilderness to research the bushmen.[39]

Nevertheless, anthropological research has sprung up regarding the elites and some of the elite have become more critical of even their own social structure and conventions. Anthropologists consider that they have a need “to shift our focus from the poor, program beneficiaries and/or their representatives and instead concentrate on the powerful … we need to look beyond our usual focus on the poor and their (claimed) representatives, and ask who or what is key to effective change.”[40]

Popular culture has also aimed to look at how elites operate, both regarding good and bad. A recent example to mention in the movie Vice that portrayed the story of Dick Cheney and was shocking to many. The author of this article remembers seeing it; thinking if this was not “true” the producers would have been sued to be made penniless. The gripping horrors of political distance and actual local effects were so portrayed as it had to be done through humor. For added discussion on that which pertains also to events of the Middle East in light of the movie, it is possible to read an article of the Independent written by Andrew Buncombe published on January 30th 2019 titled: “Vice doesn’t get it right – Dick Cheney was a much scarier vice president than that”.

Most likely politicians in the Middle East including in Lebanon need to consider all types of potential terrors such as those regarding being on the potential receiving end of all sorts of violence as portrayed in various Hollywood films and worse.

International and domestic verification of corruption amongst the elite in Lebanon:

The World Bank Group issued a systematic country diagnostic in 2016 named “Lebanon – Promoting Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity” the report posits that at the root of Lebanon’s failure is two main factors: “(a) Elite capture hidden behind the veil of confessionalism and confessional governance and (b) conflict and violence”. Further there it is stated that “illegal activities are not sanctioned by the state when they involve politically or confessionally connected or wealthy actors”.[41]

Another published article on “public-private entanglement” in Lebanon from 2016 states:

“A hybrid political order channels entrepreneurial talent into lobbying and bribery. The key constraint that emerges from the hybrid political order, in this case, is the corrupt organization of governance…this results in higher prices (because bribes…have to be earned back) in the entrenchment of oligopolies because contracts often come with political protection.”[42]

Transparency international maintains: “Political parties, public administration, the Parliament and the police are perceived as the most corrupt institutions of the country.”[43] The Lebanese Transparency Association states “Immediate and Urgent Anti-Corruption Measures Are Needed in Lebanon”.[44]

Beirut Today has published exclamations of a recognized economist in the country and simultaneously one of the paper’s owners Jad Chaaban regarding the situation. For instance last April the 23rd, 2019 when the economist highlighted that the government in the country had not for twelve years between 2005 and 2017 had any official budget. He points out that in March 2019 a five billion loan had been approved without any apparent budgeting and that there are substantive fiscal implications and degradation due to nepotism.[45]

Currently, the situation in Lebanon is considered so dire and serious that the annual meeting of Transparency International saw it fit to issue a special call last November regarding corruption in the country: Condemning that the Lebanese government has intended to put a law giving amnesty for corruption through the official channels.[46]

In the Washington Post, an article from last October states: “The benefits of unsustainable government borrowing has fed a narrow class of elites without addressing growing poverty, while the tax system further entrenched inequality.”[47]

Less flattering quotes are also abundantly found:

“Lebanon’s main political parties are run by civil war-era warlords who have exploited a dysfunctional system to make themselves billionaires. They and their children flaunt their wealth in the streets and on social media.”[48]

Is it greed?

Psychologists are already working on the greed addiction and writing about it as in Psychology Today.[49]Yet the efforts still seem to be marginal or emerging and those who need the help the most are least likely to go get it as is the flinging alcoholic in denial. We still cannot tell what exactly has been going on with the elite in Lebanon.

Do politicians grow numb?

The Lebanese politicians may potentially have grown numb as people can do when they experience excessive anxiety, and “may also experience emotional numbness as a response to extremely high-stress levels, fear reactions, or excessive worry. Not to mention the effects of more than a decade-long civil war[50], or being potentially caught in possible crossfires as mentioned above.

In fact, such stressors can create avoidance of both positive and negative emotions with escalating levels of anxiety”, [51]being in such a state of tension leads to potential lacks of empathy[52] and lacks decision-making ability[53]. Politics and political processes cause stress even among civilians who are not directly working at them; likely they involve higher stressors for those directly participating.[54] Due to all the heavy stressors involved internationally or globally people who have sociopathic tendencies even up to psychopathic are generally considered to better thrive in politics than the average citizen[55]:

“…shown that disorder may confer certain advantages that make psychopaths particularly suited to a life on the public stage and able to handle high-pressure situations: psychopaths score low on measures of stress reactivity, anxiety and depression, and high on measures of competitive achievement, positive impressions on first encounters, and fearlessness.”[56]

From this we can deduct that possibly in many cases politicians everywhere and not only in Lebanon can easily succumb to numbness through stress or already have challenges with empathy leading to decision making not benefiting the whole population. Can it be that politicians globally turn to greed as an addiction to “soften the stressors”, or are on the take out of fear, or so that they can be comfortable about operating in heartless ways, or even criminally because of already existing emotional handicaps? Greed as an addiction is hard to check in on when wealth seemingly is considered the perfect reward. Lack of emotional health and empathy skills are areas to investigate further among elites, as is greed addiction[57].

Current Research:

Some anthropologists are opening up the way in attending to research on elites and especially politics. One of them is Emma Crewe who has researched and written about politicians with their rituals and customs; working on governance and identity in politics.[58] Also, there is the work of Janine R. Wedel[59] as in her book “Shadow Elites”[60]. Her newest book “Unaccountable” was described by the Financial Times as “a clarion call against some insidious threats to a healthy democracy”[61]. What Professor Janine Wedel points out is that there are actors in society who can be politicians sometimes, all the time, or not, who may be connected to politics directly or indirectly and corporations simultaneously. These actors can shift roles and exert power upon people in ways that are antagonistic regarding their publicly apparent roles and responsibilities: “professional class of movers and shakers-people who serve overlapping roles in government, business, and media” That is sometimes in a daily talk called being both on the giving and receiving end of things.

Can we have healthy democracies? Hopefully not all the anthropologists uncover is corruption? What is the standard and what is accepted and who is in charge? The public protesters in Lebanon state that they have had enough of corruption and that is why there are riots currently demanding system changes.

On violence:

“…We can’t ignore what the social theorist Slavoj Zizek calls “systemic violence,” the use of coercion and threats of violence by the powerful to control and intimidate the lower orders.”[62] According to political theorist Benjamin Ginsberg politics is a power factually based upon actual or potential violence. His view is that violence works; as regards statehood, territoriality, and power. [63] Actually, the modern Lebanese nation-state has been in violent turmoil for seems like forever its borders were drawn up by Western conquering powers after the First World War. Battles had been seemingly fought incessantly there before now and politics seem enshrined in blood as exemplified by war, war crimes, death of civilians, and assassinations of political spearheads as Kamal Fouad Joumblatt (’77), Bachir Gemayel (’82), Rashid Karami (’87), René Moawad (’89). A string of political assassinations including nine politicians, two journalists, and three security officials then occurred as recently as between 2004 and 2008 leaving total of 58 dead and over 300 wounded in connection to the specific events.[64]

On violence as an organizing factor of a society:

In an online discussion thread interesting remarks regarding the Icelandic classic Njál´s Saga having violence as its crux theme were apparent. The remarks are interesting in view of social structure and social mobility and ring true.[65]Actually, for those who haven’t read Njál’s Saga, it is recommended as a view into social structure deeply connected to violence and the cost of violence. The Viking ancestors of the author of this article you are now reading were recognized warriors but also farmers and traders. Why did they settle on an island in the middle of the Atlantic? How come they turned relatively peaceful? Surely the ocean and harsh nature helped with that. The cost of maintaining violence became too great. Also, Christianity with its values as forgiveness vs. blood vengeance and emphasis changed the nation. Perhaps such a change with Christianity is easier for islanders than those living in the Middle East? The effects and results of vengeance can be seen over and over in history as in the events initiating the so-called First World War [66]. Some of the Vikings as Aud The Deep-Minded (a famous historical character) were already Christian as settlers and had perhaps seen enough violence.[67]Yet, as some or most of the Vikings had encountered Christianity as warriors as for instance when mercenaries in the Varangian Guard such a shift towards peace was gradual. If violence had continually been the best policy it would have been universally maintained. The teaching of forgiveness and an afterlife that did not require dying in battle for the most glory was important for the Vikings. The mystery of the Christian effects on the Vikings is connected to the Middle East and even countries as Armenia wherefrom the influence emerged.[68]Perhaps there is still a hope that the inhabitants of Lebanon can draw more strength from their higher religious ideals? Rather than in some measure possibly using religious differences as an excuse for extorting the public as the World Bank indicates is the case in the above-cited report?

This relates to the current Lebanese situation where the government claims to power based on the balance of different religious groups. In Iceland at 1000 AD, the Christian faith was taken by an act of mediation as the single custom for Iceland – this was a method at the time to maintain and tie in peace. “That one law and one custom” could be kept. [69]When conflict between “pagans” and Christians threatened to erupt between Icelanders in the year 1000 they selected the heathen law-speaker to make a decision for the nation. He went on a type of a “shamanic” vision quest and then:

“Þorgeir announced his plan. Henceforth, all Icelanders should be baptized and be Christian. Heathen sacrifice and worship could continue secretly, if desired, but would be penalized if witnesses came forward. Some heathen practices could continue in public. It was a clever compromise. It meant that outdoors, everyone had to practice the Christian faith, but indoors, where there were no witnesses, people could practice whatever faith they preferred. It seems likely that neither side was satisfied, but both sides agreed to the compromise. The desire to maintain the law [peace] outweighed other considerations.”[70]

This shows by historical example that the concerns of the ruling elite in Lebanon can have some factual basis. That with customs/religion that doesn’t match conflict can occur. This also shows the high value the Vikings at that time gave to peace which they had not done previously in the same way. Another thing that can be gleaned from this historical example, that an initiative of the ruling class can prevent civil war!

At least for quite some time. In Iceland, the last serious civil war or strife happened in the age of Sturlungar approximately between the 1220’s – 1260’s when the Icelandic chieftains fought for control of the country driven on in their struggle by the Norwegian King[71]. This waring lead to Iceland lost its independence and did not regain it until 1944. Thankfully though the history of the country in those years since the 1260s has been without domestic war.

How economic disparity can promote civil unrest:

Global corporations (called different names as multinationals, global enterprises, and so on) have become so big and mighty as to have more power than many nation-states. One way to show that is to state that out of the 100 richest economic systems in the world app. 69 are corporations[72]. Their force is political as it pertains to people, employment, and natural resources.

In spite of this, “the corporation has yet to emerge as a broadly accepted and systematically analyzed object of research in international politics”[73], although individual actors have been somewhat scrutinized as in the genre of political biographies.

We have looked at research on elites and see that the lines are blurry. Politicians can have corporate connections and interests especially when connected to resource-rich regions or the extraction of natural resources. Corporations are with very few exceptions, not democracies. Hence individuals that are in power can easily have tremendous influence with their decision making.

The above-quoted research of Janine R. Wedel shows that businesses and political institutions can also if not all the more consciously run with aims towards attending to the livelihoods of people around them, turn into instruments that promote kleptocracy and are highly connected with it! Any partially true rhetoric can be used to justify the situation.

Global corporations and banks are part of the potential pressures that can create unbalance in societies in terms of wealth distribution and influence especially when tied in with kleptocracy leading to civil unrest and perhaps civil wars or other wars. The situation of the resource-rich South Sudan can be a case in point there, as could the case of Congo. Another example is perhaps emerging in Lebanon right now regarding the nation’s banking system. That example can again relate to Iceland which had a nationwide bank system collapse in 2008.

On the banks in Lebanon:

Lebanon is facing a bank system crisis as the economy falters. The country suffers ongoing deficits.

It is pointed out in various global media that there is an extreme concentration of wealth with rather few people in the country, making for a large income disparity.[74] It seems the banks in Lebanon have been sustaining artificially high-interest rates compared to the economic value produced by the Lebanese economy as seen on sustained interest rates in connection to the national and global economic indicators.[75]

The Lebanese Central bank has now December issued a statement mandating a cap on interest on Lebanese pounds of 8,5%[76]. In a world where negative interest rates are becoming ever more common[77]. This seems out of all bonds, “high-interest rates on deposits in Lebanon’s banks have stunted investment in a real economy”[78]. A further signifier of the situation is that “about 1 percent of all accounts are estimated to hold roughly half the deposits.”[79] And that the political class is ascribed as owning more than 40% of bank assets.[80]

“The extent to which local commercial banks are linked to the country’s political class…impacts their efficiency and sovereign risk exposure… 18 out of 20 major commercial banks have major shareholders linked to political elites and 43% of assets in the sector could be attributed to political control”[81].

Currently, the banks of the country are in danger of rundowns. Billions have been withdrawn since last September.[82]”Residents line up for U.S. dollars at banks but find few”[83]. Banks have been closed for some days during the riots in Beirut. Further, the banks have been shutting down on foreign exchange with strict restrictions.[84]

This month an opinion article appeared in the New York Times titled starkly: “The Great Lebanese Ponzi Scheme”. In the article, it is described that individual enrichment has been achieved through increased public debt with one major method being using the whole banking system of the country.[85] The consulting house Thinktriangle in Lebanon would agree having published a working paper named “Extend and pretend: Lebanon’s financial house of cards” wherein it is described how “Lebanon’s politicians and banks construed a regulated Ponzi scheme that ran the country’s economy to the ground”.[86]

The banks, as mentioned, have sustained artificially high-interest rates for the economy in light of the countries economical production and exports, along with pressures coming from keeping a fixed exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. The Central bank can no longer produce the interest it has promised the commercial banks of the country.[87]In fact, it is estimated that the Central bank was providing the commercial banks with at least around 5% interest on USD even some estimates go as far as 8%, while the US treasury provides between 1,5% and 2,4% for the same money.[88] The Central bank in Lebanon does not publish financial data that would according to the Thinktriangle group allow Lebanese citizens to understand the country’s financial position.[89]

The country is on the brink of a banking system collapse similar to that Iceland experienced in 2008. The Fitch agency has already warned of a default stating that the local currency is absolutely caving into dollarization, public debt is tremendous, with obvious political uncertainty and severely diminished currency inflows.[90] The Lebanese government seems already to have contacted the IMF, while the Central Bank’s currency reserves still provide a buffer. News seems fantastical with some of the latest being that “the central bank last week said it was allowing banks to borrow dollars without limits at 20% interest to secure depositors’ needs on condition the funds were not sent abroad.”[91]Further, that the Lebanese banks have been asked by the country’s current rulers to provide $3,4 billion to resolve the current crisis[92].

Examples and learning from history:

Corporations have become large socio-economic actors in their own rights some of them with revenue surpassing those of many nations.[93]Numbers from 2018 show 71 firms at the top of the 100 largest revenue generators in the world, the others are countries.[94]These companies can exert pressure on politicians or the politicians can have direct or indirect ownership or other participatory investment financial or otherwise in such corporations. Then they may even exert pressure as individuals. If so at times putting the politicians at odds with the best interest of the citizens they are guardians of. Most corporations are not democracies. The pressures exerted on society by them can be very undemocratic.

Politics as a business?

“Business as politics” and “politics as a business” has been seen before in history as in the famous case of the Dutch East India Company[95] that operated “at a huge moral cost”, and had a reign of terror for many people as was the British East India Company that became an aggressive colonial power.[96] Both companies exerted their own militia. The East India Company literally had its own army. The modern cases of potential classes between “business” and “states” may not always be as blatantly obvious but they are there.

“The British state, alerted to the dangers posed by corporate greed and incompetence, successfully tamed history’s most voracious corporation.”[97]

Both East Indian Companies in the end shared a similar fate. Their property being nationalized or confiscated as they and their rulers posed a powerful threat to the state powers.

The managers of those companies had been “politicians” operating from another base than direct legitimization by nationhood while still contingent somewhat upon the legitimization of the state via its actors and owners; many of which were actual politicians in office in their nations.

“The 300-year-old question of how to cope with the power and perils of large multinational corporations remains today without a clear answer: it is not clear how a nation state can adequately protect itself and its citizens from corporate excess. As the international subprime bubble and bank collapses of 2007-2009 have so recently demonstrated, just as corporations can shape the destiny of nations, they can also drag down their economies. In all, US and European banks lost more than $1tn on toxic assets from January 2007 to September 2009. What Burke feared the East India Company would do to England in 1772 actually happened to Iceland in 2008-11, when the systemic collapse of all three of the country’s major privately owned commercial banks brought the country to the brink of complete bankruptcy. A powerful corporation can still overwhelm or subvert a state every bit as effectively as the East India Company did in Bengal in 1765.”[98]

The above very important quote should show how companies are intimately connected to political realities and wealth – especially banks. It reminds us that also single individuals both as political and corporate actors can indeed “overwhelm or subvert” a state such as Lebanon effectively because of any number of reasons ranging from intentional behavior or pressures of circumstance, towards unintentional character issues that can also have an effect such as underdeveloped personal faculties, lack of awareness, and other factors as narrow self-interest or lack of empathy.

This example pertains to the delicate connection of business, finance, politics, and individual actors that have various influences and networks connected to all these.

Hezbollah:

Also of interest is that if a group of people starts to appear very powerful within a state – even as a “state within a state” as Hezbollah[99] has been tagged it risks creating countermeasures of other groups or countries. Such is the state of Hezbollah which holds considerable power within Lebanon and also has its own militia, and is locked in hostilities regarding Israel and support that may have its own conditions from Iran.[100]The increased strength of Hezbollah’s militia draws attention both from Israel and the USA, as well as the whole international community in light of Iranian politics and actions. This makes it harder for Lebanon to be considered independently as an individual unit and a nation-state.

Foreign influence:

In modern Lebanese territory and surrounding countries, the aims of foreign governments having immense activity and influence have been apparent in the region. Historically, as for instance the U.S. and British, not to mention the French that has been intimately linked with natural resources and economic systems of the Middle East.[101] One such government having local influence mainly through Hezbollah may as indicated be Iran. The Middle East Transparent goes as far as to state:

“In fact, the leader of the powerful Lebanese party Hezbollah publicly acknowledges that its ideological, political, and military existence is subservient to the Supreme Leader of Iran. No country can remain stable or prosper if its major political and military decisions are controlled by a foreign or illegal power.”[102]

Israel continues to consider Hezbollah a threat.[103]Hezbollah’s military wing has been strengthened after entering the war in Syria working with Assad’s forces and Iran. “Israel has vowed to not let Iran and Hezbollah create a permanent presence in Syria. There is a growing concern of another war between Hezbollah and Israel that could draw in Iran.”[104]Currently, Hezbollah is being criticized in Lebanon for not having brought any solutions to the economic difficulties and mismanagement in Lebanon and for seemingly having been pushing against the ongoing protests of the public.[105]

A history of conflict:

In more ancient times what is now Lebanon became a part of the Byzantine Empire then seemingly changed out by what became the Sasanian Empire.[106] The Byzantine Empire being Christian while the Sasanian was multi-religious with an emphasis on Zoroastrianism with apparent peaceful coexistence with other religions as Christianity and Judaism[107]until Christianity became the official religion of the Roman Empire making Christians special subject to violence.[108]The Muslim conquest of Persia did away with the Sasanian Empire. Much later than or 1516 the Ottoman Empire made a conquest of Lebanon. In the area in the years around 1860 religious tensions rose with continued power struggles and fighting. The French Napoleon who at times considered himself in cooperation with the Ottoman took it upon himself to send seven thousand troops into then that part of the Ottoman Empire to keep the peace between Christians and Muslims in the region. Later the French influence continued after the League of Nations made a mandate for the French to be “custodians” of what is now Lebanon and Syria until the “nations could stand on their own” and perhaps understandably not to the liking of many of those who were naturally living in the habitat. While the French claimed to be protectors of the Christian minority in the region, the French purposefully fragmented the region perhaps to have the power there or at least not a threat.[109]

This historical overview should provide an insight into how easy it can be to have immense confusion regarding the Middle East and Lebanon. Nevertheless, the current local populations seem less concerned about the history and religious differences than pressing economic realities and kleptocracy. The ruling elites may be stuck in the middle of money, religion, international corporations, and governments not perhaps having as much free will as one would initially think. What might their self-determination be, considering their circumstances? How can they be approached?

A few wealthy people through history as Andrew Carnegie and the almost mythological Saladin [Salah ad-Din] seem to have realized that wealth disparity tips the boat and disintegrates society as typically exemplified in what happened in France leading to the French Revolution. Andrew was one of the wealthiest men on the planet and in his later years gave ninety percent of his wealth; still having plenty. He wrote a manifesto named “The Gospel of Wealth”[110] it’s purpose was to warn others as fortunate as himself of the dangers of wealth disparity. Saladin is rumored to have given immense treasures upon his imminent death. Both Carnegie and Saladin were thus working towards peace in society and economic prosperity. Could such a relinquishing of wealth or power help ease tensions in the current Lebanese situation?

SUMMARY

The population is demanding new governance, not temporary makeover:

The economic situation of Lebanon seems to demand the same as the public, in fact, any country or individuals going bankrupt end up at the mercy of others. If the IMF would take part in any restoration activity, the French or any other foreign institutions or countries there would surely be various types of demands that have to be followed through as custom.

The Relief web of the UN Office for The Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has posted a report regarding “Lebanon’s revolt” that was issued by the International Crisis Group. Therein it is made clear that the masses in the country are united irrespective of religious groups in demanding systematic reform. “Most protesters appear bent on the government’s resignation if not the political system’s complete overhaul”. The report concludes that technical solutions by the current rulers will be inadequate as the overwhelming sentiment seems to be throw out the political elite as a whole.[111]

Regrettably, violence has been breaking out in the last few days, with police crackdowns or clashes as they are currently called in the media[112]. The people of Lebanon still seem united while the ruling classes are described as applying their sectarian groups with the aim to maintain power.[113] The protesting public wants the whole system modernized viewing it so that the sectarian system has stalled the country economically. The politicians seem stuck in negotiations according to how the present system works. The public has been protesting in the streets for over two months and continues. [114]The light in the situation can though be seen in that the government has not applied full force or violence in quelling the protests completely! That can have to do with international tensions. If the government or other bodies would utilize the full force of violence towards the protesters there could be escalation for foreign influence and even civil war.

CONCLUSION

Conclusions:

Firstly regrettably all sources point to that there has been mismanagement in connection with politics in Lebanon. To be in politics there is clearly connected with the difficulties posed by a complex intergroup system of socio-religious groups, a system the public has had enough of. Nevertheless even for the observer or analyst bent on being neutral all the evidence points to that politically connected individuals have capsized the country economically. The example of countrywide bank system collapse in 2008 in Iceland serves as the case in point showing clearly what can readily happen to a bank in Lebanon – the situation is bad enough what regards apparent kleptocracy not to mention financial viability to be very unattractive in what regards creating a helping response from the international community. Such a response would likely mandate systematic reform of the politics and governance of the country.

It is highly unlikely that the ruling groups or individuals in Lebanon can presently manage to meet the protestor’s longing or demand for a normative democratic rule that is not based on the current very special sectarian system. The political groups are too locked in regarding one another and connected external pressures as evidently come from Iran, Israel, and the international community. They seem helpless to break up their current power structure. They do not seem free to surrender the control necessary for them to survive in terms of maintaining power and influence in the long run. This is like being a driver who only can throttle the gas; stuck in one gear.

This is the seriousness of the matter. And the situation is escalating.

Herein the examples of Andrew Carnegie and Shalladin have been shown forth. They seemingly understood that wealth disparity ruins a country and an economy when too intense. Carnegie gave 90% of his wealth and Saladin made sure he was gone at his death. The ruling classes in Lebanon could give up wealth and release parts of their power to ease the situation in their country in the hope to survive as a ruling class. If they have the grandness or even ability to do so remain to be seen. What is seen now is a reshuffling of the in-groups that have been in power without any serious gestures towards the poorer population.

In this short analysis, an effort has been made to show how immense the current pressures are and that they can be mitigated only by the grand efforts of the ruling classes, including the international ones. The immensity was shown by drawing up a historical context both in terms of a nation at the brink of war because of religious differences and regarding a nationwide bank system collapse. In both instances, cases regarding Iceland and the global situation were brought forth. Also, anthropological research of elites was highlighted with examples showing how immense business or money influences can be especially regarding super large corporations that connected militias or armies, states, and finance. This relates all to pressures regarding banking in light of the ongoing kleptocracy in the world. Further, it has been indicated that kleptocracy in relation to wealth disparity “easily” leads to civil war via the case of South Sudan. It has thus been shown that the Lebanese situation showcases historic global difficulties and international influences.

Can the elite give up wealth and positioning to maintain its viability in social positioning? For enabling peace?

Is the escalation going to lead to a bank system collapse?

Will the situation escalate to some type of violent domestic revolution?

Will the situation escalate into a domestic civil war?

Will the international community step in and help the elites so connected with apparent kleptocracy?

Will the situation escalate into a regional war drawing in Iran, Israel, and international powers?

Are there some other possibilities not indicated?

The highest hope is regarding 1. while that landing seems unlikely – obviously the poorer people with less power have little to give up while they can be further aggravated.

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The author’s closing hope, that the ruling class might voluntarily relinquish wealth and power, is honestly labelled as unlikely, and the reason lies in the article’s own analysis. No individual within a confessional power sharing system can make such a gesture in isolation: whoever moves first surrenders the resources with which they protect their community’s position, and is punished by their own constituency rather than rewarded. What looks like greed from outside is, from inside, a collective action problem. That reframing matters, because collective action problems have known remedies while moral appeals do not.

The remedy is simultaneity, and it is the classic contribution of mediation to such deadlocks. A negotiated package in which every group concedes at the same moment and in verifiable proportion, an independent judiciary, a functioning anti corruption body, transparent public accounts, an audited central bank, and losses in the banking sector allocated so that the largest depositors bear them before the smallest, asks no leader to expose their community alone. Such a package cannot be assembled by the political class negotiating with itself, which is what the article observes it is currently doing. It requires a convener the protest movement can accept and a structured dialogue in which the movement, the professional syndicates, the diaspora and independent economists sit at the table alongside the parties.

The sectarian question needs separating from the corruption question, because conflating them serves those who benefit from both. The protesters’ demand for a secular order and the political class’s insistence that confessional balance prevents renewed civil war are not simply opposed: a phased transition, beginning with a non sectarian electoral law and an independent civil service while retaining agreed minority guarantees, could satisfy the substance of each. The author’s own example of Iceland in the year 1000 illustrates the principle precisely, since what was agreed there was not the victory of one custom but a formula under which both could continue while the peace held.

The banking sector is where this crisis will be decided, and where sequencing matters most. Restructuring that protects small depositors while imposing losses on those who profited from the arrangements described here is both fair and stabilising; the reverse, which is what usually happens when reform is delayed, transfers the cost to those least able to bear it and guarantees continued unrest. International assistance is the strongest available lever, and conditioning it on verifiable governance reform rather than on fiscal targets alone would align outside pressure with the population’s own demands.

Finally, a note on what mediation can offer while the political impasse persists. The article rightly identifies the greatest danger as escalation into violence, whether through repression, factional conflict or regional war. Reducing that risk does not wait for a settlement: agreed rules for policing demonstrations, channels between protest organisers and security commanders, and a credible independent mechanism to investigate deaths and injuries have prevented escalation in comparable situations. In a country where memory of civil war remains close, keeping the confrontation unarmed is itself a considerable achievement, and it preserves the conditions under which the deeper questions can eventually be negotiated rather than fought.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

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[11] Kassir, "Lebanese October Revolution: An End to The Civil War?", Open Democracy, nov. 13, 2019. Accessed Dec. 20, 2019. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/north-africa-west-asia/lebanons-october-revolution-end-civil-war/

[12] Ibid.

[13] Chulov, "Proposal for new prime minister fails to quell protests in Lebanon", The Guardian. Dec. 19, 2019. Accessed Dec. 20, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/19/proposal-for-new-prime-minister-fails-to-quell-protests-in-lebanon

[14] See 3. above.

[15] See 4. above.

[16] See 6. Above.

[17] BBC World News, nov. 11, 2019. Accessed dec. 13, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-50123743

[18] Evan Osnons, "Doomsday prep for the super-rich", The New Yorker, jan. 22, 2017. Accessed Dec. 13, 2017. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/doomsday-prep-for-the-super-rich

[19] Ibid.

[20] AJ Impackt, "Civil unrest around the world is impacting financial markets", Al Jazeera, Oct. 24, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/civil-unrest-world-impacting-financial-markets-191024182736887.html

[21] Muggah and Raleigh, "Violent disorder is on the rise. Is in equality to blame?", World Economic Forum, Jan. 04, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/violent-disorder-is-on-the-rise-is-inequality-to-blame/

[22] Harwood, "5 reasons why income inequality has become a major political issue", CNBC, Jun. 5, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/05/5-reasons-income-inequality-has-become-a-major-political-issue.html

[23] Grant, "The Beginning of the End of the Nation State?", Forbes, Jan. 03, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marklyallgrant/2019/01/03/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-nation-state/#1db0446321dc

[24] Dasgupta, "The demise of the nation state", The Guardian, Apr. 05, 2018. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/apr/05/demise-of-the-nation-state-rana-dasgupta

[25] Foroohar, "Are Companies More Powerful Than Countries?", Business Time, Jan. 27, 2012. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. http://business.time.com/2012/01/27/are-companies-more-powerful-than-countries/

[26] Younge, "Who's in control – nation states or global corporations?", The Guardian, Jun. 02, 2014. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/02/control-nation-states-corporations-autonomy-neoliberalism

[27] Tarzi and Marcuzzi, "Are multinationals eclipsing nation states?", International Politics and Society, Feb. 06, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/global/article/show/are-multinationals-eclipsing-nation-states-3245/ Green, "Are multinationals now more powerful than the nation state?", Spectator Australia, Sep. 18, 2018. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.spectator.com.au/2018/09/are-multinationals-now-more-powerful-than-the-nation-state/ Khanna et al. "These 25 Companies Are More Powerful Than Many Countries", FP (Foreign Policy), March/April issue 2016. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/15/these-25-companies-are-more-powerful-than-many-countries-multinational-corporate-wealth-power/ Babic et al. "Who is more powerful – states or corporations?, The Conversation, Jul. 10, 2018. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. http://theconversation.com/who-is-more-powerful-states-or-corporations-99616

[28] Tarzi and Marcuzzi, "Are multinationals eclipsing nation states?", International Politics and Society, Feb. 06, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/global/article/show/are-multinationals-eclipsing-nation-states-3245/

[29] ibid

[30] Panić, "Transnational Corporations and The Nation State", Transnational Corporation and The Global Economy (Springer), pp. 244-276, published 1998. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-1-349-26523-7_9

[31] Guernica, "Global Kleptocracy", Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jul. 15, 2015. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://carnegieendowment.org/2015/07/15/global-kleptocracy-pub-60751

[32] Ibid.

[33] Michel, "American Kleptocrats Finally Feel the Heat", The Daily Beast, Oct. 29, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.thedailybeast.com/american-kleptocrats-finally-feel-the-heat?

[34] Michel, "Congress Wakes Up, Finally Decides to Tackle Kleptocracy", Just Security, Oct. 07, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.justsecurity.org/66388/congress-wakes-up-finally-decides-to-tackle-kleptocracy/

[35] Judah and Sibley, "The West is Open For Dirty Business", FP (Foreign Policy), Oct. 05, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/05/eu-us-fight-corruption-kleptocracy/

[36] Waal, "When kleptocracy becomes insolvent: Brute causes of the civil war in South Sudan", African Affairs, Volume 113, Issue 442, Jul, 2014. Accessed Dec. 21, 2019. https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article/113/452/347/78186

[37] Hudson, "Will Iceland be Handed Over to a New Gang of Kleptocrats?", Counterpunch, Apr. 29, 2009. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.counterpunch.org/2009/04/29/will-iceland-be-handed-over-to-a-new-gang-of-kleptocrats/

[38] Kleinfeld, "Exclusive: Corruption in Namibia's fishing industry unveiled", Al Jazeera, Dec. 01, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/exclusive-corruption-namibia-fishing-industry-unveiled-191201073838635.html

[39] Abbink and Salverda editors, "The Anthropology of Elites: Power, Culture, and the Complexities of Distinction", Palgrave, published Dec. 28, 2012. As found on Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Anthropology-Elites-Culture-Complexities-Distinction/dp/1137290544/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_pdt_img_top?ie=UTF8

[40] Gilbert, "Anthropology and elites: 'Studying up', politically", DLP (The Developmental Leadership Program), march 10, 2016. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.dlprog.org/opinions/anthropology-and-elites-studying-up-politically

[41] Borgne & Jacobs, "Lebanon – Promoting Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity", World Bank Group, Jan. 01, 2016. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/951911467995104328/Lebanon-Promoting-poverty-reduction-and-shared-prosperity-systematic-country-diagnostic

[42] Stel & Naudé, "Public-Private Entanglement": Entrepreneurship in Lebanon's Hybrid Political Order". The Journal of Development Studies, Volume 52, Issue 2, 2016. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00220388.2015.1081173

[43] Wickberg, "Overview of Corruption and Anti-corruption in Lebanon", Transparency International, Oct. 15, 2012. Accessed Dec 18, 2019. https://knowledgehub.transparency.org/helpdesk/overview-of-corruption-and-anti-corruption-in-lebanon

[44] See statement issued the 24th of October 2019: As accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/immediate_and_urgent_anti_corruption_measures_needed_in_lebanon

[45] Chaaban, "Lebanon Needs A Budget For Its People, Not Its Ruling Class", Beirut-Today. Apr. 23, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. http://beirut-today.com/2019/04/23/lebanon-budget-people/

[46] See statement of Transparency International as accessed online Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.transparency.org/news/pressrelease/urgent_need_for_anti_corruption_legislation_in_lebanon

[47] Baumann, "Lebanon's economic crisis didn't happen overnight. So how did we get to this point?", Washington Post, Oct. 22, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/22/lebanons-economic-crisis-didnt-happen-overnight-so-how-did-it-get-this-point/

[48] See 8. Above.

[49] Seltzer, "Greed: The Ultimate Addiction", Psychology Today, Oct. 17, 2012. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/evolution-the-self/201210/greed-the-ultimate-addiction Swartz, "Looking at Greed as an Addictive Dysfunction", Psychology Today, Dec. 21, 2008. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shift-mind/200812/looking-greed-addictive-dysfunction

[50] Authors injection

[51] Lindberg, "What Is Emotional Numbing?", VeryWellMind, published 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.verywellmind.com/emotional-numbing-symptoms-2797372

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[54] APA, "Managing stress related to political change", American Psychological Association, Feb. 2017, updated Oct. 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.apa.org/helpcenter/stress-political-change Perry, "The stress of partisan politics is takin an emotional, physical and social toll on Americans study finds", Minnpost, sept. 27, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.minnpost.com/second-opinion/2019/09/the-stress-of-partisan-politics-is-taking-an-emotional-physical-and-social-toll-on-americans-study-finds/

[55] Freeman, "Are Politicians Psychopaths?", Huffpost, Aug. 27, 2012. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/are-politicians-psychopaths_b_1818648?

[56] Nuwar, "Research Suggests Politicians are More Likely to Be Psychopaths", SMARTNEWS – Smithsonian.com, Aug. 01, 2012. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/research-suggests-politicians-are-more-likely-to-be-psychopaths-11364143/

[57] Murray, "The deadly addiction of pure greed", The Irish Times, Sept. 23, 2018. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/the-deadly-addiction-of-pure-greed-1.940468 Rabin, "Greed as Psycho-Pathology and Addiction", Huffpost, Sept. 16, 2012. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/greed-as-psychopathology-_b_1656791

[58] The web of Emma Crewe. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://emmacrewe.com/

[59] The web of Janine R. Wedel. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. http://janinewedel.info/

[60] Lorenz, "Anthropologist uncovers how global elites undermine democracy", Antropologi.info, Apr. 2010. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.antropologi.info/blog/anthropology/2010/shadow-elite

[61] Wedel, "Unaccountable", Pegasus books, Sept. 06, 2016. As found on Amazon. https://www.amazon.com/Unaccountable-Establishment-Corrupted-Finances-Politics/dp/1681772639/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8

[62] "Ginsberg, "The Chronicle Review – Why Violence Works", The Chronicle of Higher Education, Aug. 12, 2013. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.chronicle.com/article/Why-Violence-Works/140951

[63] Ginsberg, "Is There Value in Violence?", Arts and Science Magazine, Spring 2015. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://magazine.krieger.jhu.edu/2015/05/is-there-value-in-violence/

[64] Harrish, "Investigating Lebanon's Political Murders: International Idealism in The Relist Middle East?", The Middle East Journal, vol. 67, no 1, 2013. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23361690?seq=1

[65] Ford Burley, "Sin and Evil Discussion Threads", Oct. 09, 2013. And discussion of his students on said thread. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://sinandevil.wordpress.com/2013/10/09/why-violence-works/

[66] Royde-Smith and Showalter, "World War I", Britannica, Dec 12, 2019. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.britannica.com/event/World-War-I

[67] Pepper, "The Saga of Unn [Auður] The Deep Minded", Shrineodreams, dec. 17, 2012. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://shrineodreams.wordpress.com/2012/12/17/the-saga-of-unn-the-deep-minded/

[68] Midaldastofa HI, "On The Edges Of Christianity – Iceland and Armenia in the Middle Ages", University of Iceland, Jun 08, 2017. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. http://midaldastofa.hi.is/en/on-the-edges-of-christianity/

[69] Legel, "The Introduction of Christianity into Scandinavia, Iceland and Finland", University of Louisville, December 2006. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://ir.library.louisville.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1809&context=etd

[70] Short, "The Acceptance of Christianity In Viking-Age Iceland", Hurstwic, date unknown. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. http://www.hurstwic.org/history/articles/mythology/religion/text/conversion_in_iceland.htm

[71] Byock, "The Age of The Sturlungs", Medievalists, date unknown. Accessed Dec. 20, 2019. https://www.medievalists.net/2011/07/the-age-of-the-sturlungs/

[72] Global Justice Now, Oct. 17, 2018. Accessed Dec. 20, 2019. https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/news/2018/oct/17/69-richest-100-entities-planet-are-corporations-not-governments-figures-show

[73] Babic, "States versus Corporations: Rethinking the Power of Business in International Politics", Italian Journal of International Affairs, Nov. 16, 2017. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03932729.2017.1389151

[74] Assouad, "Rethinking the Lebanese economic miracle: The extreme concentration of income and wealth in Lebanon 2004 – 2014. World Inequality Database. Sept. 19, 2018. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://wid.world/document/rethinking-lebanese-economic-miracle-extreme-concentration-income-wealth-lebanon-2005-2014-wid-world-working-paper-201713/

[75] See rate overview at: https://tradingeconomics.com/lebanon/deposit-interest-rate

[76] AJImpact, "Lebanese banks to cap interest paid on deposits", Aljazeera, Dec. 04, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/lebanese-banks-cap-interest-paid-deposits-191204153113252.html

[77] Randow & Takeo, "Negative Interest Rates", Bloomberg, Nov. 01, 2019, accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/negative-interest-rates/2019/11/01/fca350e0-fcaf-11e9-9e02-1d45cb3dfa8f_story.html

[78] Azhari, "Lebanon reforms 'must start from politicians' bank accounts", AlJzeera, Oct. 19, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/lebanon-reforms-start-politicians-bank-accounts-191019144536157.html

[79] See note 48.

[80] Marsi, "Lebanons ponzi scheme economy is broken. Protestors want the wealthy 1% to foot the bill", The New Arab, nov. 11, 2019. Accessed Dec. 20, 2019. https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/indepth/2019/11/11/lebanons-ponzi-scheme-economy-is-broken-protesters-want-a-solution

[81] Chaaban, "I've Got The Power. Mapping Connections Between Lebanon's Banking Sector And The Ruling Class", Economic Research Forum, Working Paper no. 1059, 2016. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/1059.pdf

[82] Daily Sabah, "$4 Billion withdrawn from Lebanese banks due to unrest", Daily Sabah, Dec. 02, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.dailysabah.com/finance/2019/12/02/4-billion-withdrawn-from-lebanon-banks-due-to-unrest

[83] Startribune, "In Lebanon residents line up for U.S. dollars at banks, but find few", Oct. 07, 2019. Accessed dec. 18, 2019. http://www.startribune.com/in-lebanon-residents-line-up-for-u-s-dollars-at-banks-but-find-few/562466582/

[84] Cornish, "Dollar shortage shakes confidence in Lebanese banks", Financial Times, Nov. 12, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.ft.com/content/c6a323ce-0477-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

[85] Mounzer, "The Great Lebanese Ponzi Scheme", The New York Times, Dec. 02, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/02/opinion/lebanon-protests.html

[86] Halabi & Boswall, "Extend and Pretend, Lebanon's Financial House of Cards", Triangle policy research media, Nov. 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. http://www.thinktriangle.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Extend_Pretend_Lebanons_Financial_House_of_Cards_2019.pdf

[87] Ibid

[88] Ibid.

[89] Ibid.

[90] Fitchratings, "Fitch Downgrades Lebanon to 'CC'", Fitch Ratings, Dec. 12, 2019. Accessed Dec 18, 2019. https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10105031

[91] Perry, "Banks errect financial 'fence' as crisis sweeps Lebanon: association head", Reuters, Nov. 20, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-protests-banks/banks-erect-financial-fence-as-crisis-sweeps-lebanon-association-head-idUSKBN1XU278

[92] Wimmen, "Lebanon's Revolt", Crisisgroup.org, Oct. 21, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/lebanon/lebanons-revolt

[93] ibid

[94] Babic et al. "Who is more powerful – states or corporations?, The Conversation, Jul. 10, 2018. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. http://theconversation.com/who-is-more-powerful-states-or-corporations-99616

[95] Pletcher, "Dutch East Inda Company", Britannica, Nov. 30, 2015. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019 https://www.britannica.com/topic/Dutch-East-India-Company

[96] Dalrymple, "The East India Company: The Original Corporate Raiders", The Guardian, march 04, 2015. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/04/east-india-company-original-corporate-raiders

[97] ibid

[98] See 53.

[99] Abdul-Hussain, "Hezbollah: A State Within a State", Hudson Institute, May 21, 2009. Accessed Dec. 21, 2019. https://www.hudson.org/research/9801-hezbollah-a-state-within-a-state

[100] Feltman, "Hezbollah: Revolutionary Iran's most successful export", Brookings, Jan. 17, 2019. Accessed Dec. 20, 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/hezbollah-revolutionary-irans-most-successful-export/

[101] Linder, Nov. 22, 2019, WMO Conflict Insight "The cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia", ISSN: 2628-6998. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://worldmediation.org/the-cold-war-between-iran-and-saudi-arabia-is-sectarianism-the-fundamental-ideology-antagonising-these-bitter-rivals/

[102] Gaspard, "Lebanon Anatomy of a Currency Crisis", Middle East Transparent. Nov. 23, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://middleeasttransparent.com/en/lebanon-anatomy-of-a-currency-crisis/

[103] Winter, "Lebanon rocked by a second night of violent unrest", Deautsche Welle, Dec. 16, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://p.dw.com/p/3Us2Q

[104] Ibid.

[105] Michael Young, "Hezbollah Has Trapped Itself", Middle East Transparent, Dec 3, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://middleeasttransparent.com/en/42623-2/

[106] Cervantes, "Sasanian Empire", Ancient History Encyclopedia, May 17, 2013. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.ancient.eu/Sasanian_Empire/

[107] Young et al, "The Sasanian Period", Britannica. Mai 25, 2018. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://www.britannica.com/place/ancient-Iran/The-Sasanian-period#ref32149

[108] Ibit.

[109] See overview on Wikipedia regarding the Mandate for Syria and the Lebanon. As accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_for_Syria_and_the_Lebanon

[110] Carnegie, "The Gospel of Wealth", The Century Co. published 1900. Accessed Dec. 13, 2019. https://archive.org/stream/gospelofwealthot00carnuoft#page/ii/mode/2up

[111] See note 77 and a reposting at the OCHA web as accessed by the following link Dec. 18, 2019. https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-s-revolt

[112] Associated Press, "Lebanon protests run into second day amid police crackdown", The Guardian, Dec. 15, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/15/offices-of-two-major-parties-set-on-fire-lebanons-state-run-agency-reports

[113] Azhari, "Saad Hariri says will not be Lebanon PM again as tensions rise", AlJazeera, Dec. 18, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/saad-hariri-lebanon-pm-tensions-rise-191218173753995.html

[114] Bar'el, "Lebanon's protests have only one solution, and it is nowhere in sight". Dec. 18, 2019. Accessed Dec. 18, 2019. https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/.premium-lebanon-s-protest-have-only-one-solution-and-it-s-nowhere-in-sight-1.8283421?v=48E5BD8EB95EE152DE93A93BB988CE71

Trade-wars and making of meaning

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT *

This essay asks what a trade war actually is and argues that the confrontation between the United States and China can only be understood from a deeper historical and psychological perspective. The author connects protectionism to older mercantilist assumptions of zero sum gain, examines the mutual dependency created by debt and trade between the two economies, and considers what loss of self determination through indebtedness means for states as it once did for individuals. Further sections address the erosion of trust in economics as a discipline and in institutions generally, the Chinese Intelligence Law of 2017 and comparable relationships between Western technology firms and intelligence services, and the framing of China as a threat. The author declines to offer conclusions and invites readers to withhold quick judgment. The perspective and attribution of motives are the author’s own; this journal’s editorial position is neutral.

KEYWORDS *

Trade war, protectionism, United States, China, sovereign debt, self determination, zero sum thinking, interconnectedness, intelligence law, trust in institutions, economics as a discipline, Iceland

INTRODUCTION

We need new solutions and new economic thinking – old thinking brings old solutions. Economics is still about resources of production – access to those, value-adding, and arbitrage.

If policies and actions are not to lead to a loss for oneself in a modern interconnected environment it is important to realize that real economics is not a zero-sum game. What are our aims and objectives? What do they take into consideration? We live on a living planet. And even though we try to translate all value into money it is evident that money is too limited as an explanation for value or an expression of it. Trade has been the de-facto solution to amp up living standards everywhere, the case in point so obvious; that the more access there is to a variety of solutions the better. Why then would anybody want to wage a trade war if it decreases trade and then solutions? What is a trade war?

MAIN CORPUS

The modern discussion is focused on the U.S. – China relations and “trade war” often in relation to the U.S. trade deficit and U.S discussion regarding it. The U.S. has been spending and owes more than its yearly GDP; actually spending on credit. China also has a massive debt with debt considered at more than 300% of its GDP; notice that the “trade war” with the U.S. has slowed some debt easing measures of China. Chinese debt is often not issued as we are used to in more northern economical systems. Please read a further description of that angle which may add to the problems in understanding the specific pressures of the Chinese debt, if interested, via a reference in the footnotes: “Potential bad [Chinese] debts are corporate, not household, debts and were made at the direction of the state—by state-controlled banks to state-owned enterprises. This provides the state with the ability to manage the timing and pace of recognition of nonperforming loans”. That China is not fully a market economy is being played out to China’s advantage regarding its debt.

To owe others money always implies a dependency – if the dependency is too big it implies a loss of self-determination just as when individuals in the past could not pay up and had their whole families sold or taken into slavery with themselves included, irrespective of their race, religion or another background. That loss of autonomy can be one of the issues surrounding a trade war – that a government is aiming to curb expenditure via trade limiting measures, perhaps in the hope of decreasing spending in the country or to generate additional revenue through tariffs. Yet currently only slight decreases have happened in both U.S. exports as well as imports. One aim with increasing tariffs could exactly be the hope of extra government revenue to meet the debt.

Self-determination is considered important for Western Civilization and trade – it is, for instance, one of the central elements in the thesis of the controversial Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson who sees self-determination or the personhood as a basis for Western Civilization based on the idea of God in people and human potential based on the creative expression of that: With then property rights, law and trade (as modern corporations) arriving from that ideological influence in some measure. To lose self-determination because of debt is considered as a type of annihilation and very shameful, and currently most countries in the world seem to be neck-deep in debt. The U.S. owes the most of countries, with even many middle-class Americans having had financial difficulty for years. While China has been succeeding in lifting people out of poverty and actively been creating a middle class.

Self-determination is also a cornerstone of the “American culture” as indicated by the perhaps now outdated “American dream” – or “the dead American dream” as among other things debt and income inequality, the opioid and drug crisis, and other problems in the U.S. stall many an individual in development and self-determination. The cornerstone of that said dream was “opportunity” and the potential of “social mobility”; the American dream ideal of a strong consumeristic middle class and upward social mobility, which doesn’t seem to work when so many are left out – even almost or completely the whole middle class itself.

This specific “American dream” has had a strong effect in Scandinavia and Europe since before WWII. American ideals had a big impact in Europe where she was still having after-effects in her social structure of former times with warlords, tribes, royal houses, and feudal ties – ties that were transformed in the U.S. that provided for other ideas by shaking up the social structure. A multiplicity of immigrants in the U.S. migrations into the lands of the natives who used to be the keepers of the western mainland transformed post-European social structure by diverse groups with diffused cultural roots. In the aftermath of WWII, the important U.S. emphasized ideas of personal and financial liberty had evermore of an effect in Nordic/Scandinavian countries and Europe as economic and other ties grew ever stronger towards the U.S. As signified by NATO.

What is a trade war? Who is defending what or attacking for what?

Views of events and actions do matter and have an effect on understanding, definitions, and interpretation as well as communication. Such effects of personal, or group interpretation can even be seen in the simplest of acts as reading descriptions and another making of meaning.

A historical case in point may be that when the West or the U.S. territory was taken, as now seen by many as taken from the native Americans that transformation was not considered a war even though battles were fought – what happened was considered with words as “migration” or “a gold rush” irrespective of inhuman acts by the then U.S. governments or others.

People migrated in search of a place to make a living. Nowadays it is hard to migrate to any place to make it fresh. People have multiplied on the planet the world population growth since 1800 has been approximately sevenfold.

Taking the context of modern political correctness, human rights, and the dignity of all people into question, war and other similar happenings are presently viewed differently from in the past especially in relation to the potential use of nuclear arms. To take from others seems to be a less viable strategy for continued survival.

Yet, migration even though it might have driven out certain people groups to grant others access to natural resources it is not even though of in connection to fundamental economic realities viewed as a “trade war”. Nevertheless, such a trade war can still perhaps exactly best be understood with such events in mind. The access to a “place” to make a living on the earth or in society or with natural resources in view – to protect, maintain or gain control of factors of production and markets.

A trade war would be by definition mostly about rising quotas and tariffs with a protectionist aim regarding a nation’s industries which has been retaliated by increases in tariffs and or quotas by others; that escalation then considered to be the war in question. In such a way a trade war revolves around perceived control – to put the brakes on something; making tariffs and other barriers higher. Possibly such control is sought in the hope of increasing export and decreasing imports or for creating competitive barriers for market entry. That is to increase one’s own significance and to decrease one’s dependencies on others.

In his book “An Ethic for The Age of Space” Lawrance Leshan Ph.D. points to the futility of such isolationistic thinking in modern times because of the reality of global interconnectedness that cannot be reversed – it is actually manifest in the biosphere and is an actuality to be dealt with and thought from: impossible to deny. Protectionist measures aim for control among other things of the resources of production or an internal market for the perceived increased self-sufficiency and safety based on that control – however strong it may be in view of Ph.D. Lawshan’s work it can be said that such safety cannot exist, that it is impossible to withdraw from the interconnectedness of things.

The aims of increased self-sufficiency by the initiators of protectionism have to be based on what they consider useful and not self-harm. A policy leading to a trade war is not based on capitalism in the sense of free markets – it is by nature protectionist; it is designed to close off some types of trade. The protectionist ideas steam from older days when nations were developing and mercantilist ideas flourished built on the idea that to gain was at others expense. Empires were built on consolidation, trade, and raiding others – as the Roman Empire and the British Empire.

Can the same hold true for trade wars? Are they dangerous? Do they lead to polarization and death?

The Foundation for Economic Education states that they do. In an article named “Trade Wars Lead to Shooting Wars and Depressions”. The thesis being that a protectionist policy can hinder trade in such a way that populations suffer – and then the pain of that suffering can lead to revolt that will manifest in armed conflict. Empire building then leads to suffering.

As we live in an interconnected world, that interconnectedness is apparent in many things as the ideas the European Union is based on: economic integration and increased unity to prevent war to ravage Europe again as it did in the Second World War. However, though the EU may help with peace in Europe it will not work fully if viewed as an Empire building for the said reasons; the interconnectedness is such. If someone on the globe suffers in such a way as that suffering promotes violence that can affect all and quickly in a nuclear age. A trade war viewed in terms of that interconnectedness brings many questions. Can it be a viable policy? Does protectionism work to protect industries so that they can increase their competitive advantage?

The U.S. claims to be protecting U.S.-based innovation and thought …property rights, rights of design, methods, and processes. Claiming that China has been using “too much” industrial espionage.

When has protectionism worked?

The answer might be when the ownership of the means of production mattered for someone and innovation and production needed to be fenced-off to generate sufficient know-how and growth to maintain the comparative advantage. A case in point is that in Iceland the people and nation have aimed to protect fisheries from foreign ownership in the hope of maintaining wealth creation within the country and social welfare. If that has worked is up to dispute because of how some more fortunate Icelanders have been massively using off-shore accounts to avoid taxation; as reviled in the “Panama Papers”. Likely the answer is not totally black and white. It can be thought obvious that if the Icelandic fisheries had been sold to foreigners when the nation was poorer the then local population would likely have been much more deprived of its profits similar to the fate of poor people groups who as the Native American Indians were left bereft no matter the riches of the country they used to feel was their own. This case in point shows that ownership and control matter. It matters especially to the one in control – if that one who is in control is neck-deep in debt that said control can be at serious risk.

What world do we live in? How do we want to treat other individuals? Or nations? What boundaries do we consider? Such questions run deep. Such questions are important for context. Perhaps protectionism makes sense when aiming to reach or keep control of certain markets or properties?

In the West (or South) in the early 20th century or just before it if somebody struck oil, as in Texas, such a person could become wealthy but that wealth was fully dependent on trade – infrastructure and the development of a market. A market of various types of consumers; industry, business, and individual households was necessary. The stories of the Texas tycoons show how access to a natural resource with the development of trade channels and value-chains can direct wealth. Had the markets been closed off, the trade channels or value channels would not have opened up in the same way. Before oil had its industrial applications it was not such a sought resource.

This case shows us also that if somebody would have kept too tight of control closing the foreign oil trade – oil could not have become such a sought-after commodity. I.e. Icelanders have relayed upon foreign trade with their fish to bring in export income, they have even gone so far as times exporting their best produce to consume more of leftover fish themselves. If the Icelanders would have maintained ownership of their fisheries and forbidden export of fish or hindered it at the same time the fisheries would not have become the wealth generators they have been bringing currently at around 38% of the country’s export income and formerly more.

Trade and well-being

The well-being of the people is dependent on factors such as meaning and the quality of relationships. A central question becomes if the wellbeing of one group of people needs to imply the loss of the wellbeing of another group. Scarcity is a basic premise in most economic theory – necessitating a fierce view of the competitive nature of reality. It is a very materialistic concept perhaps ignoring time and the fact that humans are embedded in a living environment. What is crucial in view of the concept of scarcity is control – the control of resources, production mechanisms, and products. Maybe the real or most important scarcity is not necessarily in resources or production but the life of individuals or the life span of specific individuals or groups. And then their view or possible reality regarding their lives and livelihoods being potentially or actually threatened by others: “For blue-collar America, “Made in China” became synonymous with the ravages of globalization.”

“Can we all eat the same piece of cake?” That question signifies the zero-sum, static wealth view of economics that is standardly refuted by economists. We live in a living system – where if we take good care of resources and learn how to best utilize them we have hope of increased overall benefit by the gain of the one. Still…who gets to call the shots? Especially where more people are making demands? And thus there must be more pressure on leaders to provide for those who influence them?

Political policymaking

The political policy can fail even when based upon “the far from scientific ideas of economics”. The ideas of economics applied in politics have failed to be in tune with human realities and the natural environment, they have been unworkable at times or not had their idealized results. A 2016 Forbes article states that economics don’t work and argued its case and an opinion piece in The Guardian from this year does the same. Given that critique of economics as a discipline might even just be marginally true we have to look in different ways for “facts” to base our policies on. In this world where most value has been tied to money and people cannot migrate to look for a free country they are in fact stuck in an economic system – increasing pressures!

Economists have lost the trust of politicians, they have failed as experts and politicians have lost the trust of the public. The average person doesn’t understand what is going on – but then again who does?

There are great difficulties that have not been solved. “The notion that public figures and professionals are basically trustworthy has been integral to the health of representative democracies”, and trust in the elites has evaporated even from within its own social strata, along with trusts in institutions. Especially institutions supposedly presenting stability, honesty, and value; as the media and banks. Further “threat comes from individuals taking advantage of their authority for personal gain.”Loss of trust among U.S. citizens in the institutions and politics of its country has not been measured as declining as fast as now, while the Chinese seem to be getting more optimistic regarding theirs.

Still, the statistics show that life on the planet has improved. For instance, 300.000 people get access to clean water and electricity every day, conflicts decrease along with a decrease in global poverty, child mortality falls and life expectancy rises with more. Modern problems are complex needing social and other innovation that comes more likely from decentralized sources than directly from the government. Nevertheless, the discussion is with the expectancy for government to provide solutions. Lobbying and other pressures on the present governance system keep the pressure on. Also in international relations.

Perhaps we need to change the outlook to understand a “trade war”?

One of the main problems in politics may be the need to maintain social justification or legitimization in representative democratizes. This can shape how things are tackled and what informs the discussion. Sometimes this is bluntly related to the pursuit of or the maintenance of power as exemplified in The Prince and discussion of Machiavellian politics. Where Machiavelli’s virtù is indicating that in politics or other areas of life as warfare it is judged natural to throw out normal self-restraint and ethics. In such a case it is considered that force or cunning is paramount. Such views may be based on fear as indicated by the research of Sheldon Solomon. The fear of death.The fear of one’s own perceived helplessness. That fear may well be justified.

In a number of interesting articles in the Financial TimesPhilip Stephens writes on these very issues in relation to the U.S. foreign policy and the U.S. – China trade war: His conclusions are that the U.S. is more geographically secure than China and that China paradoxically in light of its governance system might become a free-trade champion as China is in his view more dependent on international trade than many including the U.S. He also states that it is noteworthy that the Trump administration has merged “America’s economic policy with its national security strategy” ….as when a U.S. Secretary of the Treasury was asked about what the U.S. could do about the Turkish invasion into Syria he had stated that the U.S. could shut down the Turkish economy. Merging these two policy areas merges the thought of trade and death. Such a merged view may be natural in view of natural resources and survival showing us the crux of the matter.

In these articles, important facts are mentioned in context as that the U.S. dollar has a unique role in the world economy being the largest reserve currency where countries can face the risk of not accessing dollars if brushing the U.S. administration the wrong way. The Trump Administration seems to some to be revoking “Cold-War” themes this time directed against the Chinese, others state that China is behaving in ways that are threatening. The rapid military growth and technology empowerment of China has unsettled U.S. policymakers. While there is a bigger trade, dependency, and money connection going than was formerly regarding the USSR. The Chinese, for instance, are the majority customer of jets from Boeing and the U.S. was the main importer of Chinese goods in 2018 in terms of dollar value. China aims to make its currency a stronger force in international trade and a stronger player as a reserve currency. China is currently the biggest holder of “foreign countries” in its share of U.S. debt with Japan following closely.” China hence owns a lot of U.S. Treasury debt – lending money to the US government – one reason being that export industries earn enormous sums of foreign currency that has to be invested somewhere.” Also, China is loaning the U.S. so that the U.S. in part indirectly also can keep buying Chinese goods! If China would sell this debt quickly it could seriously hurt the country’s exports by hurting the worldwide economy. Anyways, China holds the rains of this debt and can sell it if pressed.

The U.S. is very much dependent on China, both in that the Chinese own the majority of U.S. debt but also in that the U.S. import the most valuable share of Chinese exports. That dependency may have evoked hostilities:

There is even “The Committee on The Present Danger China” lunched in march 2019 with the mission: “to help defend America through public education and advocacy against the full array of conventional and non-conventional dangers posed by the People’s Republic of China. As with the Soviet Union in the past, Communist China represents an existential and ideological threat to the United States and to the idea of freedom—one that requires a new American consensus regarding the policies and priorities required to defeat this threat. And for this purpose, it is necessary to bring to bear the collective skills, expertise, and energies of a diverse group of experts on China, national security practitioners, human rights and religious freedom activists, and others who have joined forces under the umbrella of the “Committee on Present Danger: China.”

China is considered at odds with values in the U.S. regarding individual freedoms. And ideas and behavior regarding property rights and other factors related to how a society is organized. The Chinese themselves react against the above-mentioned Committee with a call for deeds that would benefit U.S.-China relations and “peace, stability, and prosperity of the world”. To some as written about in an article in the Diplomat published in July 2019 named “The US Scare Campaign Against China” the U.S. rhetoric seems to very much be an oversell of the danger of the Chinese. In the said article it is stated that any threat of the Chinese pales in comparison with the former threat of the USSR. Yet, all may not be so smooth as for instance German industry now complains loudly about China not allowing foreign companies the same competitive inroads as the Chinese themselves seem to enjoy in many foreign countries. The Chinese have also been overtaking formerly domestically owned companies aggressively restructuring their management in the German view. That Germans, French, and Italians mention risks of technology know-how outflow and espionage regarding the Chinese. This in fact mirroring the U.S. concerns that are present; the risk of espionage, subversion, and foreign interference.

“Germany was also one of the initiators (besides France and Italy) of a broader legislative project at the EU level that aims to provide a solid legal footing in EU law for monitoring and restricting state-directed foreign investments in sensitive European industries, with the primary aim of controlling Chinese FDI. In February, the European Parliament approved the relevant legislation for an EU-wide framework for foreign investment review. The endorsement of the EU Council at ministerial level followed in early March.”

The Chinese might not need to overthrow the current world organization it seems to have been working well for the Chinese even though they seek to transform it. They have managed to bring their population benefits through trade as best seen through the emergence of the Chinese middle class. Are they more aggressive now when they are doing better? Is the economic situation in Europe and America currently harder than before making policymakers there more sensitive?

The Chinese 2017 Intelligence law

There is a Chinese law referred to as the Chinese Intelligence law that came into enforcement in July 2017 that may be one immense factor explaining the US and now European reactions to the Chinese lately. That law according to commentators overnight changed all Chinese firms and people into active spies. The Chinese state demands full cooperation of companies and citizens:

The Intelligence Law… repeatedly obliges individuals, organizations, and institutions to assist Public Security and State Security officials in carrying out a wide array of “intelligence” work. Article Seven stipulates that “any organization or citizen shall support, assist, and cooperate with state intelligence work according to law.” Dr. Murray Scott Tanner

In light of this, it is important to note that the West is not devoted to its intelligence operations. It can be in dispute how related for instance American firms can be to the security faculties of the U.S. state. There is not a similar overall direct claim as in the Chinese Intelligence law on assistance in espionage or intelligence work to all diverse U.S. firms, while there are still operational connections. Commentators have stated that corporations as Facebook, Google, Yahoo, and others are somehow being used by U.S. intelligence for data mining, and whatever the full extent to such claims it is right that U.S. companies may need to hand over data to authorities related to intelligence work. Further, for instance, mutual investment from Google and the intelligence community is at hand in a company called Recorded Future which is for web monitoring being a case in point. An article in CBS news even had the title; “Social Media Is a Tool For the CIA: Seriously”. It is true that, for instance, the famous In-Q-Tel corporation’s” mission is to foster the development of new and emerging information technologies and pursue research and development (R&D) that produce solutions to some of the most difficult IT problems facing the CIA.”The U.S. has for long utilized private corporations in its military complex. Things are not always straight forward as seen by the issues surrounding Facebook and possible Russian influence on U.S. elections. For all countries then the Internet of Things can make all of this more complex, cyber issues are prime Intelligence issues.

SUMMARY *

The essay’s guiding argument is that a trade war is poorly understood as a dispute about tariffs. The author reads it instead as a contest over access to the factors of production and over control, continuous with older histories of migration, settlement and empire, and driven as much by fear and the need for political legitimacy as by economic calculation. Its distinctive feature in the present case is mutual dependency: the two adversaries are bound together by debt and trade to a degree that has no precedent in earlier great power rivalries, which is precisely why the confrontation is both dangerous and, in the author’s reading, difficult to sustain.

CONCLUSION

Again we come to the question of what is a “trade war”? Why is it important? What pressures are at play?

It is indicated in an article in the Spectator that American businesses and people have become over-focused on appearances – branding, marketing, and pretense while others have stayed more at “making things best”. The article further states that President Trump doesn’t believe in the “myth of infinite American power”.

What has it to do with other countries? The “trade war” is not a modern thing – it builds on the steps of finding a place to make a living, migrations, war, and access to resources, production value chains, and the different geographic cost of labor. “Trade-war” is nowadays to be seen in the light of the increased pressures due to the increased global population and less available freedom for many in terms of finding their own factors of production as people might have done formerly by migration. There is a need to find viable ways of coexisting and cooperating. A “trade war” is not a “shooting war”. It is a showing off–off teeth and a question of power in alliances in economic production and living standards. It is a trial at consolidating oneself against perceived threats. It is not possible in a short article like this one to come to final conclusions. I have aimed to show some of the factors involved from a deeper perspective. The Chinese may just be applying their natural strategic thought in aiming to gain an advantage with combined factors where the West is more diversified. It is exactly in that diversification the value difference is appearing. Free trade and interdependencies are held to work against “shooting wars” as exemplified by the EU. China and the U.S. are very connected through debt and trade. China benefits from the U.S. buying the most from itself in dollar value. The Chinese currently hold the highest share of U.S. debt which may not be as serious of a concern as the amount of debt itself as so far U.S. debt has been very sellable worldwide and is still somewhat diversified in ownership. Matters as intellectual property, industrial and other espionage, and control of production factors are all in question as central themes. The reader is encouraged to pay attention to developments and not to draw quick conclusions.

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The essay’s most useful contribution to mediation practice is its refusal to accept the parties’ own framing. Both governments present this as a dispute about tariffs, deficits and market access, and negotiations conducted on those terms have repeatedly produced agreements that dissolved within months. The author’s reading explains why: what is actually at issue is control over the conditions of one’s own survival, and no schedule of duties settles that.

The mutual dependency the essay documents is therefore the decisive fact, and it can be read two ways. As a danger, it means neither side can inflict damage without absorbing it, which is why both have found escalation harder to sustain than expected. As an asset for a mediator, it means the material for agreement already exists: parties bound this closely are not choosing whether to have a relationship but only what kind. Making that dependency explicit and symmetrical, so that each side sees what it stands to lose rather than only what it hopes to gain, is the most reliable brake on escalation available, and it is also a form of reality testing that a neutral third party can perform more credibly than either government.

Where the essay identifies genuinely different systems rather than different interests, the appropriate instrument changes. The intelligence question is a case in point. A dispute in which one side asserts that the other’s companies are legally obliged to cooperate with its intelligence services, while the other points to the operational entanglements of Western technology firms with their own agencies, cannot be resolved by mutual accusation, because neither can prove a negative. It can be addressed by standards: independently audited security requirements, source code review facilities and certification regimes applied to vendors of every nationality. Standards convert an untestable claim into a testable one, which is what a mediator seeks whenever trust has collapsed.

The essay’s observation that economic policy has been merged with national security strategy deserves to be treated as the central warning it is. Where trade instruments become weapons, every commercial dispute acquires an existential character, and the space for ordinary bargaining disappears. Restoring a distinction between the two, so that most trade questions are adjudicated by a multilateral body both sides accept while genuine security concerns are handled through security channels, would return the larger part of this conflict to the domain where it is soluble.

Finally, the author’s attention to fear, to legitimacy and to the collapse of trust points to something a mediator recognises from smaller conflicts. Positions harden not when parties are confident but when they are frightened, and frightened parties need to be addressed rather than out argued. In a confrontation between two societies each convinced of its own vulnerability, the work of reducing that fear, through predictability, verification and channels that function when relations are poor, is not a preliminary to the negotiation. It is the negotiation.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

REFERENCES

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John K. Williams, “The Seven Fallacies of Bad Economics”, The Foundation for Economic Education, date unknown. Accessed November 4, 2019. https://fee.org/articles/the-seven-deadly-fallacies-of-bad-economics/

Saranya Kapur, “People are Wondering if Economics is Really a ‘Science’?”, Business Insider, October 24, 2013. Accessed November 4, 2019.https://www.businessinsider.com/is-economics-a-science-2013-10?r=US&IR=T

David Leonhart, “The Problem of Putting a Price on The End of The World”, The New York Times, April 9, 2019. Accessed November 4, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/09/magazine/climate-change-politics-economics.html

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Andrew Simms, “Economics is a Failing Discipline Doing Great Harm, So Let’s Rethink It”, The Guardian, Opinion, August 3, 2019. Accessed November 4, 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/03/economics-global-economy-climate-crisis

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Uri Freidman,”Trust is Collapsing in America”, The Atlantic, January 21, 2018. Accessed November 4, 2019. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/01/trust-trump-america-world/550964/

Julius Probst, “Seven Reasons the World is Improving”, BBC, January 11, 2019. Accessed November 4, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190111-seven-reasons-why-the-world-is-improving

Dylan Mathews,”23 charts and maps that show the world is getting much, much better”, Vox, October 17, 2018. Accessed November 4, 2019 https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news

Further see statistics at https://ourworldindata.org/

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See Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy on political legitimacy. Accessed November 5, 2019. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/legitimacy/

New Philosopher, Agust 24, 2018, Issue 21 #power. Accessed November 5, 2019. https://www.newphilosopher.com/articles/political-power/

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Jonah Lherer, “Fear, Death and Politics: What Your Mortality Has To Do With The Upcoming Election”, Scientific American, October 23, 2008. Accessed November 5, 2019. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fear-death-and-politics/

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Philip Stephens, “Trade is just an opening shot in a wider US-China conflict”, Financial Times, May 16, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.ft.com/content/9317cc0e-7664-11e9-be7d-6d846537acab

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Kimberly Amadeo, “Us Debt to China, How Much It Is, Reasons Why, and What If China Sells”, The Balance, October 16, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-debt-to-china-how-much-does-it-own-3306355

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Shobhit Seth, “Why China Buys U.S. Debt With Treasury Bonds” , Investopedia, August 7, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040115/reasons-why-china-buys-us-treasury-bonds.asp

See Present Danger China. As Accessed November 6, 2019. https://presentdangerchina.org/about-us/

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Wendy Wu, “Cold war is back: Steve Bannon helps revive US Committee to target ‘aggressive totalitarian foe’ China”, South China Morgning Post, March 26, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3003283/cold-war-back-steve-bannon-helps-revive-us-committee-target

David Shambough, “China’s Propaganda System: Institutions, Processes And Efficacy”, The China Journal #57, pp. 25-58, Januar 2007. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20066240?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

Wendy Wu, “Cold war is back: Steve Bannon helps revive US Committee to target ‘aggressive totalitarian foe’ China”, South China Morning Post, March 26, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3003283/cold-war-back-steve-bannon-helps-revive-us-committee-target

David Skidmore,”The US Scare Campaign Against China”, The Diplomat, July 23, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/the-us-scare-campaign-against-china/

Björn Alexander Duben, “Are The Gloves Coming-Off in China-Germany Economic Relations?”, The Diplomat, May 03, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/are-the-gloves-coming-off-in-china-germany-economic-relations/

David Skidmore,”The US Scare Campaign Against China”, The Diplomat, July 23, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/the-us-scare-campaign-against-china/

Bonnie Girard, “The Real Danger of China’s National Intelligence Law”, The Diplomat, February 23, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/the-real-danger-of-chinas-national-intelligence-law/?

Prof Michael Chossudovsky, “Social Media is a Tool of the CIA: ‘Facebook, Google and Other Social Media Used to Spy on People”, Globalresearch.ca, March 9, 2018. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.globalresearch.ca/social-media-is-a-tool-of-the-cia-facebook-google-and-other-social-media-used-to-spy-on-people/5606170

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Philip Ewing, “Why The Likes, And Dislikes, Social Media”, NPR, February 24, 2016. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.npr.org/2016/02/24/467933392/why-the-cia-likes-and-dislikes-social-media

Zack Whittaker, “Facebook reports a massive spike in government demands for data, including secret orders”, TechCrunch, November 15, 2018. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://techcrunch.com/2018/11/15/facebook-releases-national-security-letters-for-customer-data/

Noa Shachtman, “Exclusive: Google, Cia Invest in ‘Future’ of Web Monitoring”, Wired, July 28, 2010. Accessed November 6, 2019.https://www.wired.com/2010/07/exclusive-google-cia/

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Further see the web of In-Q-Tel: Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.iqt.org/how-we-work/

Emily Dreyfuss, “Top US Intelligence Official Sue Gordon Wants Silicon Valley On Her Side”, Wired, September 11, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.wired.com/story/sue-gordon-us-intelligence-public-private-google-amazon/

Daniel Wirls, “Eisenhower called it the ‘industrial-military complex.’ It’s vastly bigger now.” Washington Post, June 26, 2019. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/06/26/eisenhower-called-it-military-industrial-complex-its-vastly-bigger-now/

Frenkel et al, “Delay, Deny and Deflect: How Facebook’s Leaders Fought Through Crisis”, New York Times, November 14, 2018. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/14/technology/facebook-data-russia-election-racism.html

Spencer Ackerman, “CIA Chief: We’ll Spy On You Through Your Dishwasher”, Wired. March 15, 2012. Accessed November 6, 2019.https://www.wired.com/2012/03/petraeus-tv-remote/

Debate Daniel McCarthy vs. Matt Ridley, “Are Trump’s tariffs a good idea? Arguments for and against”, The Spectator, June 09, 2018. Accessed November 6, 2019. https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/06/are-trumps-tariffs-a-good-idea-the-arguments-for-and-against/

Reykjavik ended the Cold War

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

EDITORIAL NOTE *

This article is an essayistic contribution written from an Icelandic perspective and posing its argument largely in the form of open questions rather than conclusions. Readers should note that the author draws substantially on the Russian state news agency TASS for the Russian position, while positions of the United States government are largely presented through critical commentators. The terminology and the attribution of motives reflect the author’s own perspective. The editorial position of this journal is neutral as between the states concerned. Supplementary sources presenting the positions of the other parties have been added at the end of the reference list.

ABSTRACT *

Written from an Icelandic perspective, this essay asks whether the collapse of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty marks a deliberate return to Cold War patterns. The author recalls the Reykjavík Summit of 1986, examines the mutual accusations of treaty violation, the argument that no agreement is meaningful without Chinese participation, and the status of New START. Iceland serves as the vantage point throughout: a country without an army, once the front line of the Cold War, now the object of renewed American military investment and expanding Chinese engagement as the Arctic opens. The author connects the arms question to global economic conditions and asks whether rearmament is being used as economic policy.

KEYWORDS *

INF Treaty, New START, nuclear disarmament, Reykjavík Summit, Iceland, NATO, Arctic, China, Russia, United States, military spending, arms race

INTRODUCTION

Do the leaders of the world lack a vision for the future so badly that they try to reenact the Cold War?

1986. A nuclear reactor explodes in Chernobyl releasing four hundred times more radioactive material than the former bombing of Japan. Nuclear testing had been ongoing and had released even more radioactive material. 1986 a letter from one man to another proposes a meeting “maybe” in Reykjavík: “Gorbachev’s initial letter to Reagan from 15 September 1986 asking for “a quick one-on-one meeting, let us say in Iceland or in London,” 1986: A proud moment for Iceland when the Reykjavík Summit happens.

The leader of the then Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev and the then U.S. President Ronald Reagan met for negotiations. Therefore the first time steps for the so-called INF agreement were initiated. When the meeting happened in Reykjavik INF type missile base installation work had begun in five nations in Europe by the U.S. The work was discontinued after the summit. The original INF treaty was signed six months later on December 8th by the two leaders in Washington. This to Icelanders was monumental and in line with what they then saw as a legacy of their history as a nation built by Vikings that had turned from violence towards peace. Christianity had for instance been declared the religion of the nation by acts of arbitration and peacemaking in AD 1000. The island in the middle of the Atlantic had long been considered as having strategic significance that was enacted upon from the time of the world wars especially by the U.S. that had made an agreement for continued military presence in Iceland in 1946. Iceland joined as a founding member of NATO in 1949. The U.S. military did not leave the country until 2006 and now has made plans for a return and large infrastructure investments in Iceland in 2020. News has just gotten out that it is intended that Iceland be a forward operating location for the stealth B2 Spirit Stealth bomber which can carry up to sixteen nuclear bombs, and has just visited the country.

In Iceland, the nation had been in the middle so to speak during the Cold War, with young school children learning of the dangers of nuclear war without the ability to cognize much else than the fear of the adults. The year before Reykjavík in Geneva Gorbachev had stated: “You ask what changes in the world economy could be of benefit to the Soviet Union. First of all, an end to the arms race. We would prefer to use every rouble that today goes for the defense to meet civilian, peaceful needs.”

MAIN CORPUS

Large nations quitting nuclear arms agreements – what questions come up?

The war scholars of the American “Warontherocks” state that due to Russia’s breach of the INF treaty withdrawal from it by the U.S. may be “justifiable” but that it is not the same as “smart”. They cite the Director of the National U.S. Intelligence Daniel Coats on information that Russia has breached the INF treaty. Coats claims that Russians had started testing in the early 2000s and by 2015 had things ready. The TASS Russian news agency quoted Chief of the Russian Missile and Artillery Force Lieutenant-General Mikhail Matveyevsky on the 23rd of January 2019 stating that the missiles pointed out by the U.S. to be in violation were not breaching the INF as they missed the 500 km mark of the parameters by 20 km reaching only 480 km because of their embedded fuel pack – i.e. they run out of gas at that point. According to the war scholars of “Warontherrocks” – the whole issue might be amiss in terms of these exact missiles as there are other “strategic” missiles that can be flown into places (as with the B2 Sprit Stealth) or for instance, fired of ships or submarines that have not been covered by the INF treaty. Nevertheless, the INF treaty has been considered a landmark in working towards a livable and more peaceful world.

Perhaps there is a group shift towards more extreme positions currently?

The U.S. authorities have stated that an INF is meaningless without China on board. While the Chinese claim that Russia and the U.S. have many times more nuclear weapons than themselves so that they do not consider reduction to be an issue for themselves.

The START contract

The INF talks lead to the “START” contract on strategic nuclear disarmament signed by Gorbachev and George H.W. Bush. START expired in 2009 and was replaced with a NEW START in April 2010. The START contracts focus on different types of nuclear weapons than the INF. In combo with the INF contract, it was considered successful in greatly reducing nuclear weapons in Russia and the U.S. Yet, there is no real concern about the rise of other countries’ arsenals including notably China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, and Iran. Then there is continued concern on NATO countries that have had such weapons for a long time as France and the UK.

President Putin of Russia has declared serious worry about lack of interest in discussions on continuing START and working on the worldwide nuclear issue. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) points out that “China was Russia’s largest client for weaponry between 1999 and 2006, accounting annually for 34–60 percent of the volume of Russia’s exports of major weapons”. While the U.S. keeps being the largest worldwide arms exporter by far.

Is it strange to insist upon all the powers to participate?

In a National Interest article, it is stated that China has roughly 330 nuclear warheads while Russia and the U.S. have more than 6.000 each. Dr. Jeffery Lewis a doctor in policy studies has been quoted saying that bringing China up as a threat the way it has been done is non-sense, that the U.S. would if the threat was so real have acted long ago with allies in Asia. Yet for instance, SIPRI has portrayed the rise of China’s military complex to rival that of Russia. And the Business Insider claims that Chinese power has surpassed that of Russia in terms of overall military issues.

Why would INF a landmark of hope be meaningless?

Icelandic cooperation with China has increased in the later years. A bilateral free trade agreement was signed in 2015. An agreement is in place on a joint China-Iceland Aurora observatory. The Icelandic geothermal energy company Arctic Green Energy Corporation is working with China’s Sinopec to develop geothermal energy use in China for a cleaner future. Iceland has made a free trade agreement with China with other agreements on mutual cooperation. The Artic has been opening up with new possibilities for sailing shortening the route to Asia by many days, shifting the vantage point of how the world map is looked at. This shift also indicates a symbolism for changing the balance of power in the whole world. The Chinese embassy in Iceland can house up to a staff of 500 people when the next largest embassy there in the U.S. can potentially house a max of 70 people. All this in the country that houses glaciers, and volcanoes and is a harsh country hard to inhabit with only an app. 340 thousand people. Does the interest of China in Iceland’s cooperation show a changing world? Will China become a force for peace or does it hold other superpower ambitions? The Arctic plays an evermore important role because of water and other resources and in the opening up of the Arctic trade route.

Economic realities and peace

Economic realities have been hitting walls in many places with record low-interest rates and high debts of nations. Some as the Guardian columnist Gerg Jericho view the interest rates being low with optimism stating that states can borrow more at a lower cost, but it is harder to invest money at a return. Environmental realities play a part and many saturated markets.

Is there a U.S. presidency’s method of “helping the economy” by turning the volume up on the military complex? Is that a method that has also been applied by Russia and China?

Do people really believe that increasing armament production and hostilities are the way towards prosperity when the global economic growth has peaked? In the U.S. there is an issue with public debt. Things are even worse for some of the Eurozone economies. While public finances in Russia have remained relatively stable. China still has a high GDP growth while it is slowing down. The Chinese have initiated measures to keep growth and exports high. They have increased spending on infrastructure but have an issue with non-financial corporate debt. There seems to be an issue with debt everywhere.

Need for a world reform of business

Uncertain tries of many decentralized players with transformations in money system structure is a symbol of the dire need everywhere. This appears in various electronic currencies and works on electronic monitory platforms. Both include high-level players in the global economy as seen in the work of the Linux Foundation regarding its Hyberledger. Another factor affecting business and worldwide economies is how to receive a return on investments with falling rates “everywhere”. Do all this worldwide uncertainty drive policymakers and world leaders towards trying to enact the past? To recreate Cold Wars?

In the American Prospect, Doris Goodwin wrote in the fall of 1992 about how WWII had given rise to social improvements in the USA, because of an overarching vision. It has now been stated that economists have destroyed the myth that war is profitable. “One thing is clear: If a new arms race begins, it will be expensive.”According to the New York Times: ” the Congressional Budget Office stated in January, the cost of nuclear upgrades has increased to $494 billion, or 87 times the amount Mr. Trump is seeking for his border wall.”

Ideas that created an economic collapse in the 14th century?

Are the world leaders hoping that installing ideas from the 14th century to fight the economic crisis will work now? Early state-like thinking to centralize power was characterized by increasing funds for armaments and war in the 14th century. This became crippling. Policies destroying friendship and trade within many economies in 14th century Europe led to economic downfall.

The case of U.S. military spending

Military spending matters in the overall U.S. economy in a way that is larger than for any other country including Russia or China. America’s weapons production is far greater. After WWII it was a no-brainer to convert factories in the U.S. that had been in armaments to produce civilian goods. The business case didn’t seem as good after the Korean War in the early 1950s. Civilian goods production shifted overseas making weaponry a bigger share in the U.S. factory output. In his first days, the current U.S. President called for a 10% increase in military spending. He has also asked NATO members to spend more on military issues. These policies are already having an effect in Iceland with new plans for increased U.S. military presence and expenditure with a starting investment of 57 million dollars in 2020. Will this if enacted domestically and worldwide lead the U.S. and other countries to apply such policies unto the path of no return regarding an economic collapse imitating 14th century Europe?

Is nuclear an issue?

Is there a forgetfulness of the horrors of Nagasaki or Hiroshima with generational changes? Are world leaders willing to face nuclear annihilation rather than the uncertainties of the economic future? Is it too hard to be creative in healthy ways regarding profits and the economy?

Or have we really entered the Age of Stupid – to quote the name of a “fictional” documentary. With leaders thinking less on the consequences of their actions and more on what to put on Twitter? Can it be that the people involved are very clever. Do we have a smokescreen to enforce justification for the added military expense? Or is there a justification? Who benefits from those added expenses and for how long?

Public concern

How can the general public know the truth when even for people involved in the political processes it is hard or impossible to really know what is going on? How hard that can be was exemplified in the American movie Vice that is based upon certain facts that are so catastrophic that the only way to portray the story is through humor.

Crossfire of blame?

The U.S. side claims that the Russians have been violating the INF agreement and the Russians have retaliated with similar claims. Sergey Lavrov the Russian Foreign Minister claims the U.S. has breached the provisions of the INF treaty since 1999. Also, the Russians have shown photographs of production facilities in the U.S. that were enlarged two years before the U.S. stated the Russians had breached the INF – indicating in their view production capacity showing that the U.S. had not planned to maintain the treaty. Foreign minister Lavrov also states that the U.S. has “not managed to produce any proof that the Russians violated the INF. “The Russian Foreign Ministry recalled that Moscow had raised the issue of US target missiles developed in violation of the INF Treaty since 1999 and strike drones — since the early 2000s. On the other hand, Washington began advancing claims regarding compliance with the accord to Moscow in 2013”. Strangely enough, seen in this context the U.S. intelligence community maintains that both countries are fully keeping their NEW START agreements – according to Jon Wolfsthal a former senior advisor to President Obama.

BALANCING NOTE ON SOURCES *

The account of the mutual accusations set out above rests to a considerable extent on reporting by TASS, a Russian state news agency, and readers are invited to weigh the corresponding positions of the other parties. The United States government has maintained that the Russian 9M729 (SSC 8) missile was tested to ranges prohibited by the treaty, a finding publicly supported by NATO member states in a joint declaration of December 2018. Russia has consistently rejected this account and has advanced its own allegations concerning American target missiles and armed drones. The Organisation dealing with verification questions had no mandate under the treaty after the expiry of its inspection regime in 2001, which is the principal reason why neither set of claims could be independently tested. Sources for these positions are listed at the end of the reference section.

SUMMARY

What is really going on?

John Bolton senior military strategy advisor to the U.S. Presidency has called the INF treaty a relic of the cold war. He has wanted talks with Russia to address the increased Chinese military powers. The Keflavík base in Iceland was considered by the U.S. to be “on the front line of the cold war”. Now both the U.S. and China have most recently shown very much increased interest in the country. The U.S. already has increased investment in Iceland and the Icelandic Foreign Ministry is reviewing the Chinese Belt and Road initiative as the Chinese push hard to expand it to Iceland. Iceland will because of its few inhabitants and difficult natural environment acts its best to maintain peace with other countries, in fact, the country has no military of its own. Yet as a member of NATO, the country’s policies are contingent. The Chinese have started their regret regarding the U.S. leaving the INF agreement and despite their military capabilities transformation in recent years maintain that all their aims are peaceable. News out of China is that the Chinese maintain their position regarding nuclear being that their nuclear arsenal is limited and defensive in nature and further that “China opposes arms race and works to safeguard global strategic balance and stability”. U.S.-based military strategists point out that China has capabilities to pose a “risk to the Western Pacific”.Further that there indeed has been constant growth through investment in Chinese military capability including added emphasis on missiles and nuclear power.

“In addition, China will deploy the new CSS-NX-14/JL-2 SLBM on new 12-tube JIN Class SSBNs. This missile will, for the first time, allow Chinese SSBNs to target portions of the United States from operating areas located near the Chinese coast…The CJ-10 (DH-10) is the first of the Chinese Changjian series of long-range missiles and LACMs. It made its public debut during a military parade in 2009 and is currently deployed with the Second Artillery Corps.”

CONCLUSION

Can it be that as we have seen the Russians and the U.S. are both still adhering to the NEW START Agreement that the U.S. and perhaps even Russia are hoping that abandoning the INF agreement will pressure China towards the negotiation table or they may see China having grown so strong that they are acting out of fear of losing formerly perceived position? If the size of China’s arsenals are much smaller than those of the U.S. or Russia how could that be? Is that because with a certain type of missiles the Chinese arsenal is reputedly the largest in the world? Russians state they had initiated concern regarding that China should be included in the INF treaty 12 years ago. Apparently, the U.S. had started producing new missiles before revoking the INF contract – missiles of strategic importance that still might not have been exactly constrained by the contract as for instance some are designed to be deployed from the sea, so-called Trident missiles. One of the excuses proclaimed by U.S. professionals for the design of new nuclear weapons has been utilizing the process as bargaining pressure. NATO’s General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg gave a recent speech in Australia that is transcribed on the organizations’ web. There he acknowledges the concern regarding China as the main concern for the collapse of the INF. He states moderate optimism as he says that China can be worked with not wanting to label China or Russia a threat. NATO stands for the principle that if one member state is attacked all of the states consider it an attack. Stoltenberg further stated his view that China is needed in nuclear arms agreements for them to be effective. Mike Pence Vice President of the U.S. is just now visiting Iceland – Reuters quotes an “official” of the U.S. administration on that he is visiting to “have talked about ‘incursions’ into the Arctic Circle by China and Russia.”

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The article’s own material contains the elements of an answer, and it begins with the observation that both sides accuse the other of violating the INF treaty while neither can persuade the other of its case. That is the classic condition in which verification, rather than argument, becomes decisive. The treaty’s original strength lay in intrusive on site inspection, and its collapse followed the erosion of that mechanism rather than any sudden change of intent. Reconstructing a framework of this kind therefore starts not with the political question of who was right but with the technical one of what regime would allow each side to satisfy itself about the other, including the categories of weapon, sea launched and air delivered, that the original treaty never covered.

The question of Chinese participation is more tractable than the public exchange suggests, provided the asymmetry the article documents is taken seriously. A state with a few hundred warheads cannot reasonably be asked to accept the same ceilings as states with several thousand, and demands that it do so are read in Beijing as an attempt to freeze its inferiority. But participation need not begin with limits. Transparency measures, notification of tests, agreed definitions and risk reduction arrangements cost little, commit a state to nothing it must later undo, and build the shared vocabulary without which negotiated ceilings are impossible. A staged path, with the larger arsenals reducing further as the smaller ones accept verification, offers each party something it can defend at home.

Iceland’s position, which the author treats as the vantage point of the article, is worth taking seriously as more than local colour. Small states without armies have historically supplied something the great powers cannot supply for themselves: a venue trusted by both sides, hosts with no stake in the outcome, and the quiet persistence that summitry lacks. Reykjavík in 1986 was not a coincidence of geography. The equivalent contribution now, for Iceland and for comparable states in the Arctic, would be to press for the region to be governed by cooperative arrangements on research, environmental protection, search and rescue and shipping rather than by competing military postures, and to offer themselves as conveners while such arrangements are still possible.

Two cautions belong here. The article’s economic argument, that rearmament serves as a substitute for economic vision, is plausible as a question but is presented in places as established; economists disagree about it, and the case is stronger when made as an inquiry into who bears the cost than as an assertion about motive. And the far larger risk in a period without treaties is not deliberate war but accident: unverified deployments, compressed decision times, and no channel through which a misread signal can be clarified. Crisis communication arrangements, incident notification and military to military contact are unglamorous, cost nothing politically, and are the measures most likely to matter on the day everything else fails.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

REFERENCES

References:

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19 Aljazeera, ‘Putin Warns New START nuclear arms treaty at risk’, June 6, 2019 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/russia-putin-warns-start-nuclear-arms-treaty-risk-190606163914989.html (accessed September 3, 2019)

20 Wezeman, Simon T. SIPRI, July 5, 2017, https://www.sipri.org/commentary/topical-backgrounder/2017/china-russia-and-shifting-landscape-arms-sales (accessed September 3, 2019)

21 SIPRI,’Asia and Middle East Lead Rise in Arms Imports..’, February 22, 2016 https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2016/asia-and-middle-east-lead-rise-arms-imports-united-states-and-russia-remain-largest-arms-exporters (accessed September 3, 2019)

22 Kimball, Daryl, The National Interest, May 27, 2019 https://nationalinterest.org/feature/new-start-must-be-extended-or-without-china-59227 (accessed September 3, 2019)

23 Borger, Julian and Pengelly Martin, The Guardian, October 21, 2018 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/20/trump-us-nuclear-arms-treaty-russia (accessed September 3, 2019)

24 See footnote 16.

25 Lockie, Alex, Business Insider, August 2, 2018 https://www.businessinsider.com/russias-weakened-military-now-surpassed-by-chinas-2018-8?r=US&IR=T (accessed September 3, 2019)

26 Tatlow, Didi Kirsten, The New York Times, October 5, 2012 https://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/?mtrref=www.google.com&assetType=REGIWALL (accessed September 3, 2019)

27 UN, World Economic Situation and Prospects March 2019 Briefing nr. 124 https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-march-2019-briefing-no-124/ (accessed September 3, 2019)

28 Jericho, Greg, The Guardian, May 27, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/may/28/the-government-needs-to-get-into-more-debt-our-grim-economy-depends-on-it (accessed September 3, 2019)

29 Centre for Research on Globalization, June 12, 2016, https://www.globalresearch.ca/economists-destroy-the-myth-that-war-is-good-for-the-economy/5530431 (accessed September 3, 2019)

30 Ibid

31 ibid

32 The Economist, ‘For how long can today’s global economic expansion last?’ https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/07/13/for-how-long-can-todays-global-economic-expansion-last (accessed September 3, 2019)

33 Hyperledger, https://www.hyperledger.org/members (accessed September 3, 2019)

34 See footnote 28.

35 Goodwin, Doris, The American Prospect, Fall 1992, https://prospect.org/article/way-we-won-americas-economic-breakthrough-during-world-war-ii (accessed September 3, 2019)

36 See footnote 21.

37 Sanger, Edwin and Broad, J. William, The New York Times, February 1, 2019 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/us/politics/trump-inf-nuclear-treaty.html (accessed September 3, 2019)

38 Congressional Budget Office, January 2019, https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2019-01/54914-NuclearForces.pdf (accessed September 3, 2019)

39 ibid

40 Rothbard, N. Murray, The Great Depression of the 14th Centurym Mises Institute, November 23, 2009, https://mises.org/library/great-depression-14th-century? (accessed September 3, 2019)

41 See data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute: www.sipri.org

42 Uchetielle, Louis, The New York Times, September 22, 2017 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/22/business/economy/military-industrial-complex.html (accessed September 3, 2019)

43 Wolf, Z. Byron, CNN Politics, June 11, 2018 https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/11/politics/trump-defense-spending/index.html (accessed September 3, 2019)

44 RUV, Bandaríkjaher byggir fyrir milljarða á Íslandi, June 21, 2019 https://www.ruv.is/frett/bandarikjaher-byggir-fyrir-milljarda-a-islandi (accessed September 3, 2019)

45 TASS Russia, ‘Mayors of Hiroshima, Nagasaki urge Russia and US to prevent INF collapse’, January 30, 2019 https://tass.com/world/1042394 (accessed September 3, 2019)

46 Armstrong, Franney, Spanner Films, 2009 https://www.spannerfilms.net/films/ageofstupid (accessed September 3, 2019)

47 McKay, Adam, Annapurna Pictures et al. 2018 https://www.vice.movie/ (accessed September 3, 2019)

48 Pifer, Steven and Meier, Oliver, Arms Control Association, January/February 2018, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-01/features/we-nearing-end-inf-treaty (accessed September 3, 2019)

49 TASS Russia, ‘US has violated INF Treaty since 1999, Lavrov tells Putin’, February 2,2019 https://tass.com/politics/1042978 (accessed September 3, 2019)

50 TASS Russia, ‘Russian defense ministry says US started production of banned missiles two years ago’, February 2, 2019, https://tass.com/defense/1042995 (accessed September 3, 2019)

51 TASS Russia, ‘Top Russian diplomat blasts US for failing to furnish evidence for INF violations’, February 5, 2019, https://tass.com/politics/1043278 (accessed September 3, 2019)

52 Tass Russia,’Russian Foreign Ministry says US has not responded to all Moscow’s concerns on INF Treaty’, February 11, 2019 https://tass.com/world/1044186 (accessed September 3, 2019)

53 TASS Russia, ‘US steps to ruin INF Treaty will backfire on Washington – Senior Russian diplomat’, August 1, 2019 https://tass.com/politics/1071539 (accessed September 3, 2019)

54 TASS Russia, ‘US fails to prove Russia ‘breached’ INF, security chief says’, August 8, 2019, https://tass.com/politics/1072162 (accessed September 3, 2019)

55 TASS Russia, ‘Kremlin, Pentagon’s missile test indicates pre-planned strategy to enable INF’s collapse’, August 20, 2019, https://tass.com/defense/1074221 (accessed September 3, 2019)

56 Wolfstalh, Jon, Defense One, May 2, 2019 https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/05/us-russia-china-arms-treaty-extend-new-start-first/156693/ (accessed September 3, 2019)

57 Reuters, ‘Trump advisor says wants U.S. – Russia strategic talks on Chinese threat’, October 26, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-bolton-china/trump-adviser-says-wants-u-s-russia-strategic-talks-on-chinese-threat-idUSKCN1N01TI (accessed September 3, 2019)

58 Hopper, Tristin, ‘National Post’, March 26, 2013, https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/we-stand-on-guard-for-iceland-canada-takes-its-turn-defending-only-nato-country-without-an-army (accessed September 3, 2019)

59 Hringbraut TV Iceland, May 12, 2019 https://www.hringbraut.is/frettir/kina-vill-island-i-belti-og-braut (accessed September 3, 2019)

60 TASS Russia, ‘China: U.S. blames INF’s demise on Russia to get free hand in ramping up arms development’, August 6, 2019, https://tass.com/world/1072081 (accessed September 3, 2019)

61 Xinhuanet, ‘Using China as excuse for U.S. leaving INF treaty unacceptable – envoy’, August 23, 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-08/23/c_138331899.htm (accessed September 3, 2019)

62 Sayers, Eric, Warontherocks, February 13, 2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/02/asia-inf/ (accessed September 3, 2019)

63 Cordesman, Anthony H., Center for Strategic & International Studies,’The PLA rocket force: Evolving beyond the Second Artilery Corps, and Nuclear dimension’ , October 13, 2006, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/161013_China_Missile_Forces_AHC.pdf (accessed September 3, 2019)

64 ibid

65 Michael, Martina, ‘Reuters’, August 6, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-defence/china-warns-of-countermeasures-if-u-s-puts-missiles-on-its-doorstep-idUSKCN1UW044 (accessed September 3, 2019)

66 Graham Harrison, Emma, The Guardian, August 20, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/20/russian-china-us-missile-test-arms-race (accessed September 3, 2019)

67 Johnson, Jesse, The Japan Times, August 25, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/08/25/national/politics-diplomacy/u-s-wants-japans-help-close-missile-gap-china-tokyo/#.XWL1luj7TIV (accessed September 3, 2019)

68 See 33.

69 Ibid.

70 Mehta, Aron, Defense News, February 6, 2018 https://www.defensenews.com/space/2018/02/06/will-the-us-trade-its-new-sub-launched-cruise-missile-for-russian-arms-treaty-compliance/ (accessed September 3, 2019)

71 NATO speach transcript, August 8, 2019, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_168379.htm?selectedLocale=en (accessed September 3, 2019)

6 Reuters, ‘Pence, in visit to Iceland, to discuss ‘incursions’ into artic circle by China, Russia: official.’ August 28, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-pence/pence-in-visit-to-iceland-to-discuss-incursions-into-arctic-circle-by-china-russia-official-idUSKCN1VI1QW?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29&&rpc=401 (accessed September 3, 2019)

Supplementary sources added by the WMO Editorial Team

72 North Atlantic Council, Statement on the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, NATO, Brussels, 4 December 2018.

73 U.S. Department of State, INF Treaty: At a Glance, and Russian Noncompliance, Background Briefings, Washington, D.C., 2018 and 2019.

74 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Statements on the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Moscow, 2018 and 2019.

75 Arms Control Association, The Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty at a Glance, Washington, D.C.

76 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, chapters on world nuclear forces, Stockholm.

77 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Nuclear Notebook series on the arsenals of the United States, Russia and China.

Democratic Involvement – what are the factors ?

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT *

This essay asks whether the principal obstacle in politics is not ideas or law but unsound behaviour, deficient communication and personality disorder, and whether existing structures reward precisely these traits. Written as a sequence of open questions, it traces the influence of adversarial assumptions from mercantilism to modern theories of competition, considers the promise and the limits of the information revolution, and invokes Ortega y Gasset’s warning against specialisation that leaves individuals discounting their own experience and specialists indifferent to the whole. Drawing on Lawrence LeShan, the author argues that the widespread inability to face psychological pain leads people to ignore the pain of others and thus the issues society most needs to address, and warns that environments of risk and power favour those least capable of self reflection and empathy, particularly where the public prefers strong leaders to the responsibility of participation. The essay closes by asking what techniques of communication and conflict resolution might respond to this.

KEYWORDS *

Political culture, behaviour, empathy, personality disorder, communication, Ortega y Gasset, specialisation, information revolution, leadership, self reflection, psychological pain, participation

INTRODUCTION

Can it be that unsound behavior, communication deficiencies, and personality disorders, not concepts or even the law are the main problem in politics?

Do we reward unsound behavior?

Do we install processes that protect the diversity of voices and look out for the emotional, physical, and social health of participants? Governing has been marked by social hierarchies and power struggles including violence and death. Economic theory has often been based on concepts arrived from the war as many of the “facts/concepts” we use when applying ourselves for success, motivation, and legitimized behavior.

MAIN CORPUS

Has it always been this way?

Similar behavioral thinking and motivation are shown in economic theory from the time of mercantilism promoting gain as having to be at others’ expense to modern ideas on competition and comparative advantage. “Social capital” and “brute force” alongside other persuasive powers with coercion often lead the way. The nation-state seems only to cover feudal lords and merchant networks rather than building from the principle for the whole. Can we prove these ideas wrong? Are they counterproductive? Do some win in the competition at the cost of their own isolation, decreased empathetic capabilities, and diminished connections, or worse?

The information revolution

The Internet revolutionizes public scrutiny, conversation, and decision-making. Especially where media may be controlled by few people and online publishing/participation is a reality.

What about the quality of the thinkers and the information?

The Spanish philosopher José Ortega Y Gassett warned us against the hegemony of specialization. Everything becomes somebodies else’s domain leaving individuals discounting their lives – discounting their own experiences and sense of navigating the world. The specialist then in such a case being a product of modern education and in danger of myopia, lacking concern for the whole: If men confuse symbols (expert knowledge) with the realities of being human.

When the politician and the scientist are ignorant of the decencies of integrity or if they give in to threat and danger – can the public help?

Information gives the ability to engage but not necessarily the ability to know by having walked out of an experience or the ability to deal constructively with threats.

Do crowds have the real ability needed to bring solutions for a nation and humanity?

Based on interest various individuals can come to depths of knowledge that at times rivals the knowledge of experts. Magnifying diversity of discourse, diversifying the risk of participation. Specialists in psychological influence can however reach people through a wider spectrum and there is a danger of information cascade.

The ability to act and know the quality of information comes up for question

People often are overwhelmed. Business & other power may threaten the quality of information. Levels of maturity and intellect differ in the power to see correlations, classify significance, events, and potentiality.

Often society rewards the ability to subdue feelings

It is hard to know if the things needing attention are addressed. It is easy to lead the discourse astray. The power of feelings, unspoken communication, and social ties is routinely underestimated. For many it is really hard to be consistent – even to have integrity towards oneself. People can be kind, but also impossibly ruthless. It is hard for people to face their own psychological pain. When they can not they may ignore the pain of others as it reminds them of their own. In so doing they routinely ignore the issues needed to be addressed by society! Lawrence Leshan an American PH.D. in psychology maintains that aspects of psychologically not being able to face pain and issues while simultaneously being able to remain “normal” or “functional”threaten life on the entire planet and for sure any reasonable functioning of any political process! People may have various levels of dysfunctional upbringing in terms of “healthy” communication, empathy, and sense of the whole. Some lack empathetic skills. When there is a high level of needing praise and not being able to constructively deal with criticism the narcissist with power even if preaching democracy utilizes coercive means, weaknesses of people, and codependent group behavior.

SUMMARY *

The essay’s governing thought is that political dysfunction is better explained by the emotional and communicative capacities of those who take part in it than by the merits of their arguments. Inherited adversarial assumptions, the fragmentation of understanding through specialisation, an information environment that grants access without judgment, and a culture that mistakes the suppression of feeling for competence combine to produce a selection effect: the traits that succeed in politics are not those that make governing wise.

CONCLUSION

Who is in control?

Sociopathic or psychopathic tendencies can thrive where there is risk, challenge, and power. The general public looks for “strong leaders” preferring not to have to take the responsibility, risk, and time needed for sensibly participating in political discourse or governance. There is danger in the confusing lacking ability of self-reflection and empathetic skills with strength and decisiveness! We tend to lift up individuals rather than the context that gives them support or needed safeguards. What techniques of communication and conflict solutions do we have that we can apply? Can we deal better with personality disorders or psychological pain? The wolves do not want anything that hinders their raiding of society. Can we help them?

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The essay’s closing observation contains its own answer: we lift up individuals rather than the context that gives them support or needed safeguards. That is precisely where mediation practice has something to offer, because mediation is fundamentally an argument about context. It holds that behaviour is shaped by the structure people find themselves in, that the same person who becomes rigid and combative under adversarial conditions can become creative under different ones, and that changing the structure is more reliable than changing the character.

Applied to political life, this suggests attending less to the diagnosis of leaders than to the design of the processes that select and sustain them. Debate formats that reward the sharpest attack produce politicians skilled in attack. Deliberative formats, in which participants must first restate the opposing position to its holder’s satisfaction, in which time is allowed for reflection rather than reaction, and in which facilitation protects the quieter voices, reward a different set of capacities. Citizens’ assemblies and similar structures, now tested in several countries on questions that had defeated parliaments, show that ordinary people asked to deliberate under good conditions produce careful and often courageous conclusions, which speaks directly to the essay’s question about the capabilities of crowds.

Two of the essay’s concerns deserve a more precise response. On specialisation, the corrective is not to distrust expertise but to change the relationship between experts and citizens: experts who present evidence and uncertainty to a deliberating public, and who are questioned by that public rather than deferred to, restore what Ortega feared was lost without discarding what specialists actually know. On the psychological dimension, the practical instruments already exist in the conflict resolution field, and they are ordinary rather than clinical: supervision and reflective practice for those who hold authority, structures that require decisions to be explained to those affected by them, and institutional accountability that does not depend on the self restraint of the powerful.

A caution belongs here as well. Diagnosing political opponents at a distance is itself a familiar move in polarised societies, and the language of disorder is easily used to disqualify people rather than to understand them. The safer formulation is structural: certain environments reward certain behaviours, and where power is unaccountable, where information is unverifiable and where the public prefers strength to participation, the behaviours rewarded will be the ones the essay describes. Build accountability, protect the quality of information, and make deliberation something citizens actually practise, and the same environment begins to reward something else.

The essay’s final question, whether the wolves can be helped, is more hopeful than it first appears. Mediators encounter people daily who arrive rigid, defended and combative, and who become something else when the room changes. Not everyone does. But the practice rests on the observation that most people are less fixed than they seem, and that what looks like character is often the shape a person takes under the conditions they are given.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

REFERENCES *

1. Ortega y Gasset, J. (1930). The Revolt of the Masses. Revista de Occidente, Madrid (chapter on the barbarism of specialisation).
2. LeShan, L. (2002). The Psychology of War: Comprehending Its Mystique and Its Madness. Helios Press, New York.
3. Fisher, R., Ury, W., & Patton, B. (2011). Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In (3rd edition). Penguin Books, New York.
4. Rosenberg, M. B. (2015). Nonviolent Communication: A Language of Life (3rd edition). PuddleDancer Press, Encinitas.
5. Fisher, R., & Shapiro, D. (2005). Beyond Reason: Using Emotions as You Negotiate. Viking, New York.
6. Bush, R. A. B., & Folger, J. P. (2005). The Promise of Mediation: The Transformative Approach to Conflict. Jossey Bass, San Francisco.
7. Fishkin, J. S. (2018). Democracy When the People Are Thinking: Revitalizing Our Politics Through Public Deliberation. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
8. Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development (2020). Innovative Citizen Participation and New Democratic Institutions: Catching the Deliberative Wave. OECD Publishing, Paris.
9. Surowiecki, J. (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds. Doubleday, New York.
10. Sunstein, C. R. (2009). Going to Extremes: How Like Minds Unite and Divide. Oxford University Press, New York (on information cascades and group polarisation).
11. Goleman, D. (2006). Social Intelligence: The New Science of Human Relationships. Bantam Books, New York.
12. Lederach, J. P. (2005). The Moral Imagination: The Art and Soul of Building Peace. Oxford University Press, New York.