Conflict and mediation in Venezuela

How to cite this journal: Author, Date of the post, WMO Conflict Insight, Title of the post, ISSN: 2628 6998, https://worldmediation.org/journal/

ABSTRACT *

This article examines the humanitarian and political crisis in Venezuela and the prospects for its mediated resolution. The author documents an exodus of more than three million people since 2015, principally to Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Brazil, making the crisis a regional one for Latin America as a whole, and traces its economic origins to the collapse of international oil prices in 2014 followed by economic measures that produced capital flight and hyperinflation in a country holding the world’s largest oil reserves. The political dimension is set out from the succession of Nicolás Maduro after the death of Hugo Chávez, through the contested election, the creation of the Constituent Assembly alongside the opposition controlled National Assembly, to Juan Guaidó’s self proclamation as interim president on 23 January 2019 and the resulting international division, with the United States, Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Canada, Ecuador and Argentina on one side, Russia, Bolivia and Cuba on the other, and Mexico and Uruguay calling for a peaceful solution. The article details the humanitarian consequences reported by Venezuelan universities, medical and pharmaceutical bodies and United Nations sources, including a sharp rise in mortality, an eighty five percent shortage of essential medicines, the emigration of roughly a third of the country’s doctors, childhood malnutrition and severe water and sanitation problems, and it argues that United States sanctions have deepened the suffering of the poorest and violate principles of international law. Drawing a comparison with the Iraq war and pointing to the failure of both the opposition’s attempts to remove the government and the sanctions campaign, the author observes that all sides are losing, and reviews mediation efforts by Zapatero, Cuba and Norway before closing with three questions on needs, inclusion of further opposition sectors, and the role of peace promoting organisations. Readers should note that the causal analysis and attribution of motives, including the comparison with Iraq, reflect the author’s own perspective; the editorial position of this journal is neutral as between the parties and their accounts.

KEYWORDS *

Venezuela, humanitarian crisis, migration, sanctions, oil, Nicolás Maduro, Juan Guaidó, polarisation, Norway mediation, international law, Latin America, peaceful resolution

INTRODUCTION

A humanitarian crisis of enormous proportions is underway in Venezuela that has already caused an exodus comparable to Syria at war. According to statistics, since 2015, more than 3 million people have left the country, targeting mainly the closest countries, such as Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Brazil. In this way, the crisis in Venezuela affects not only the country but Latin America as a whole.

What is happening in Venezuela? What interests and what players are involved in the conflict? What similarities would there be between this conflict and other precedents? Can the sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela, by violating principles of international law, could be subject to mediation by the UN and other pacification agencies? How to overcome the polarization of conflict to build a peaceful resolution?

MAIN CORPUS

Owner of the largest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela has established itself as the second-largest producer and exporter of oil, developing a position of close dependence on the United States, its main importer. The drop in international oil prices in 2014, followed by a series of disastrous economic measures, favored the country’s capital flight and caused hyperinflation, setting a major crisis in the country.

On the political front, Maduro was named successor by Chavez, who died in 2013. Elected in a lawsuit accused by the opposition as fraudulent, the government has been targeted by protests from a significant part of the population. In 2017, Maduro marginalized the National Assembly, controlled by the opposition, ordering the creation of a new legislative body known as the Constituent Assembly and arrested prominent members of the opposition.

On January 23, 2019, the President of the National Assembly, Juan Guaidó, from the Popular Will party, the most rightist and radical formation, convinced that an armed intervention would be the best response to Venezuela, self-proclaimed interim President of the Republic. The US immediately recognized his authority, while Russia sent troops in support of Maduro. Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Canada, Ecuador, and Argentina followed the position of the United States. Mexico issued a joint statement with Uruguay calling for a peaceful solution to the crisis and acknowledging Maduro’s legitimacy. Bolivia and Cuba reaffirmed their support for Caracas. With the national security forces remaining loyal to Maduro and the international military forces becoming antagonistic in the conflict, the impasse remains.

The US has banned American purchases of Venezuelan oil and the Central Bank of Venezuela from conducting transactions in US dollars since May 18. In addition, they announced a cut in Latin American access to personal remittances and US credit cards by 2020. Established sanctions have had direct consequences for the population of Venezuela, especially the poorest, and increased the migratory crisis in America Latina.

The conflict in Venezuela bears resemblance to the war in Iraq. Donald Trump, like G. Bush, is a direct representative of the lobby of the arms industry and oil companies. Venezuela is one of the largest oil producers in the world, such as Iraq. In addition, Chávez’s government in re-stating PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela) has withdrawn control of US hydrocarbon companies from the country, reducing its exorbitant profits. The US also had no interference in Iraq’s oil companies before the war. As one can see, the US seems to produce wars to supply its arms and oil industry.

The National Survey on Living Conditions, an annual survey administered by three Venezuelan universities, reports there has been a 31% increase in overall mortality from 2017 to 2018 or more than 40,000 additional deaths. The Pharmaceutical Federation of Venezuela reported that the shortage of essential medicines was 85%.

According to the Venezuelan Medical Federation, about 22 thousand doctors, about a third of the total, left the country. “As migration accelerates in 2019 due to the tightening of sanctions, more health professionals, in addition to others with the necessary technical skills, must leave Venezuela,” the study authors predict.

According to the UN report of March 2019 entitled “Venezuela: Overview of Priority Humanitarian Needs”, the Encovi surveys indicate that, due to malnutrition, about 22% of children under five years of age did not grow or develop their bodies normally. There are also huge water and sanitation problems. The latest UN report notes that “lack of access to water, soap, chlorine and the like inhibits hand washing and domestic water treatment” and that “homes not connected to the water network are using non-potable water from streams and rivers and inadequately treated and unsafe wells”.

By attempting to bring about changes in the regime through economic measures that deny basic human rights and lead to hunger, the US maintains an unacceptable practice in international relations.

SUMMARY

Faced with an increasingly serious situation, all conflicting sides are losing. At the most global level, the situation is tense, with Trump and Putin antagonizing each other. Opposition initiatives to overthrow the Venezuelan government have failed, and the government is weakened by sanctions that have aggravated the already serious crisis. The polarization of the parties, together with the worsening of the humanitarian crisis, has been identified as one of the greatest difficulties in the mediation of the conflict. However, the humanitarian catastrophe and failure in Maduro’s fall make it imperative to build another way out of the conflict.

The situation’s status quo is serious. The exodus of Venezuelans to neighboring countries has increased the migration crisis and reaffirmed the need for humanitarian support to refugees and asylum applications. The polarization of the conflict and the severity of the humanitarian crisis has created a deadlock that necessitates the construction of an exit not yet built.

CONCLUSION

While US and Guaidó-led opposition are betting on military intervention, other forces are working to build a peaceful alternative. A specific agreement allowed the Red Cross to enter. Ideal solutions, such as the US lowering the sanctions and countries like Brazil supporting Venezuela probably will not succeed. Zapatero, the former Prime Minister of Spain, held several meetings with the government and opposition of Venezuela and even announced an agreement that at the last moment would have had the opposition’s withdrawal. Cuba has also made efforts in this direction. Recently, Norway, which has refrained from recognizing Guaidó as interim president and has worked in the mediation of conflicts in Guatemala, Afghanistan, Myanmar, and between South and North Sudan, has arrived as a mediator. It is difficult for Maduro to resign and give way to a transitional government and for Guaidó to accept the legitimacy of the Chavista leader. Then some questions can be formulated:

What parties’ needs are necessary to contemplate in order to overcome the polarization of the conflict and minimize the suffering of the Venezuelan people?

Could an invitation to other opposition sectors for joining the mediation process favor a peaceful solution?

What can be done by international peace-promoting organizations in the face of sanctions set by the United States?

POTENTIAL SOLUTION *

The three questions the author leaves open are the right ones, and they can be answered without adjudicating the disputed history that precedes them.

On needs, the polarisation is sustained less by ideology than by fear of what defeat would mean personally. For those around the government, the question is prosecution, exile and loss of everything; for the opposition, it is continued exclusion, detention and the loss of any peaceful route to power; for the armed forces, whose loyalty determines the outcome, it is their own future in any new arrangement. None of these fears is addressed by demands for capitulation, which is precisely why nine rounds of ultimatums have produced nothing. A mediated settlement has to offer each of them something concrete: a genuinely competitive electoral path with an independent electoral authority and international observation, guarantees for those who step back, and a defined role for the security forces in the transition rather than a promise of reckoning.

On inclusion, the author’s instinct is sound and important. A negotiation conducted between the government and one opposition faction, particularly the faction most committed to external intervention, produces an agreement that other actors have every incentive to break. Bringing in the opposition parties that favour an electoral route, the chavista currents critical of the government, the churches, universities, business associations, trade unions and organisations representing the millions who have emigrated, widens the base of any settlement and reduces the number of actors who can veto it from outside the room. This is also where regional facilitation matters, since neighbouring states bearing the migration burden have an interest in stability that neither Washington nor Moscow shares in the same way.

On the role of peace promoting organisations in the face of sanctions, the practical answer is neither to demand their abolition nor to accept them as immovable, but to bring them inside the negotiation as a variable. Sanctions that can be suspended in defined, verifiable steps as benchmarks are met, electoral guarantees, prisoner releases, humanitarian access, become instruments of a process; sanctions declared non negotiable remain simply a front of the conflict. In the meantime, humanitarian exemptions for medicines, medical equipment, water treatment and food should be broadened and made operationally effective, since the health data the author cites, whatever one concludes about causation, describe suffering that no political outcome justifies prolonging.

The Norwegian track deserves particular attention as a model rather than merely an episode. Its value lies in what it avoids: no recognition of either claim to the presidency, no public deadlines, no announcements designed for domestic audiences, and continuity across rounds even when they fail. Venezuela has had no shortage of dramatic initiatives; what it has lacked is a quiet process patient enough to survive its own setbacks, which is the only kind that has ever ended a polarisation of this depth.

* Added by the WMO Editorial Team

REFERENCES

References

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